Kansas City run at 5.08 yards a carry, the best average in the NFL, and concede 1.5 touchdowns a game. Atlanta rate 76.4 through the air, 29th. Our Chiefs vs Falcons prediction has a 6-2 side against a 3-6 one.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-2 at +59. The Atlanta Falcons are 3-6 and have conceded 223 points in nine games.
Chiefs vs Falcons: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Chiefs vs Falcons: 2026 form so far
A 6-2 side that runs it better than anyone, against a 3-6 side that cannot throw. The table compares what each team produces with what the other has given up.
Chiefs attack against the Falcons defence
| Per game | Chiefs offence | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 246.4 | 228.0 |
| Rushing yards | 137.8 | 118.8 |
| Yards per carry | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Passer rating | 101.8 | 96.3 |
| Touchdowns | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Third-down conversion | 41.7% | 42.6% |
| Red-zone conversion | 63.3% | 64.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.4 | 2.2 |
Falcons attack against the Chiefs defence
| Per game | Falcons offence | Chiefs allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 185.4 | 210.4 |
| Rushing yards | 137.2 | 97.5 |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Passer rating | 76.4 | 79.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 34.9% | 36.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 61.5% | 36.8% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Kansas City concede 36.8% in the red zone, second in the NFL, and 1.5 touchdowns a game.
Kansas City Chiefs 6-2 · average margin +7.4
Atlanta Falcons 3-6 · average margin -3.9
Chiefs vs Falcons quarterback matchup
Patrick Mahomes threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns at 117.9 in a 35-12 win. Michael Penix Jr. went 20 of 31 for 162 at 74.9.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes | 23/31, 242 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 117.9 rtg | 177/263, 2037 yds, 14 TD, 4 INT, 101.8 rtg (8 games) |
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 20/31, 162 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 74.9 rtg | 124/199, 1444 yds, 10 TD, 6 INT, 88.4 rtg (7 games) |
Chiefs vs Falcons injury report and team news
Kansas City average 5.08 yards a carry, the best figure in the NFL.
Kansas City concede 36.8% of red-zone trips, second in the league.
Atlanta rate 76.4 through the air, 29th in the NFL.
The best run game in football against a side that has to throw
Kansas City are 6-2 and the run game is the quiet part of it: 5.08 a carry is the best mark in the league and 138 yards a game is fifth.
The defence is louder. Opponents score 1.5 touchdowns a game and convert 36.8% in the red zone, rating 79.4.
Atlanta can run it at 4.79 a carry, fourth in the NFL. Throwing is the problem — 185 yards a game at 76.4 — and that is the half Kansas City take away.
Their own numbers
What opponents have managed against them
Players to watch
- Patrick Mahomes (KC, QB): 242 yards and two touchdowns at 117.9 last week.
- Rashee Rice (KC, WR): A primary target in an offence scoring 3.0 touchdowns a game.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): Fronts a run game averaging 4.79 a carry, fourth in the NFL.
- Drake London (ATL, WR): Led Atlanta’s receivers in the defeat to Cincinnati.
How to watch Chiefs vs Falcons
Kickoff is 6.00pm GMT on Sunday 15 November at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET. Channel 5 and 5ACTION show selected games free-to-air each Sunday, and those are not affected by the blackout. Check their listings for this week’s picks. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the two Sunday afternoon windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Chiefs vs Falcons |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, November 15, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6.00pm GMT Sun 15 Nov / 1:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 10, 2026 NFL season |
Chiefs vs Falcons prediction and score projection
Our Chiefs vs Falcons prediction is Kansas City by 27-16. Atlanta’s run game travels and their passing does not, and Kansas City make sides one-dimensional.
The projected margin on this page updates through the week.
Every Week 10 game, previewed
| Kickoff (GMT) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Commanders @ Giants | Giants 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Patriots @ Lions | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bills @ Jets | Bills 30-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Panthers @ Saints | Saints 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Texans @ Browns | Texans 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Jaguars @ Titans | Jaguars 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Chiefs @ Falcons | Chiefs 27-16 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Dolphins @ Colts | Colts 20-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Vikings @ Packers | Packers 20-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Rams @ Cardinals | Rams 24-16 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Seahawks @ Raiders | Seahawks 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | 49ers @ Cowboys | 49ers 34-24 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Steelers @ Bengals | Bengals 27-23 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Chargers @ Ravens | Ravens 23-13 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Chiefs vs Falcons FAQ
6.00pm GMT on Sunday 15 November at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the two Sunday afternoon windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
Kansas City, at 5.08 yards a carry — the best average in the NFL.
The passing game. They throw for 185 yards a game at a 76.4 rating.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change