Sixteen penalties in four games. Our Colts vs Steelers prediction asks whether being the tidiest team in the league is worth more than home field at Acrisure.
Both the Indianapolis Colts and the Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-2 with negative point differentials. Kickoff is 6pm BST.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis ColtsWin prob39%
Pittsburgh SteelersWin prob61%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
Colts vs Steelers: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Colts vs Steelers: 2026 form so far
Two 2-2 teams separated by eight points of differential. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defence has given up.
Colts attack against the Steelers defence
| Per game | Colts offence | Steelers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 174.8 | 209.5 |
| Rushing yards | 109.5 | 112.8 |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Passer rating | 73.9 | 92.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 37.7% | 34.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Steelers attack against the Colts defence
| Per game | Steelers offence | Colts allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 223.0 | 261.2 |
| Rushing yards | 94.8 | 131.0 |
| Yards per carry | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Passer rating | 80.6 | 98.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.0% | 29.2% |
| Red-zone conversion | 44.4% | 57.1% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.2 | 2.2 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Indianapolis has taken 16 penalties for 105 yards, the fewest of any team in the NFL. In a game this even, free yardage decides it.
Colts vs Steelers quarterback matchup
Pittsburgh rates 80.6 through the air against Indianapolis’s 73.9, and both lines have struggled: the Steelers have conceded 13 sacks.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | Daniel Jones | 24/36, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 82.5 rtg | 84/132, 754 yds, 3 TD, 4 INT, 73.9 rtg (4 games) |
| Steelers | Aaron Rodgers | 19/34, 292 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 101.6 rtg | 88/153, 999 yds, 7 TD, 4 INT, 81.6 rtg (4 games) |
Colts vs Steelers injury report and team news
Alec Pierce is on injured reserve for Indianapolis, so the Colts remain without the receiver who made 1,003 yards last season.
T.J. Watt has four sacks for Pittsburgh, joint third in the league.
Jaylen Warren has 309 rushing yards at 4.41 a carry.
Indianapolis ColtsPittsburgh SteelersDiscipline against home field
Indianapolis does the small things well: 16 penalties for 105 yards, 75% in the red zone, opponents held to 29.2% on third down. None of it is glamorous and all of it travels.
What it cannot do is throw. A 73.9 rating and 699 passing yards mean Jonathan Taylor carries the offence.
Pittsburgh’s problem is protection. Thirteen sacks conceded is second only to Tampa Bay, and Aaron Rodgers has not had much time to throw.
Players to watch
- Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB): 353 rushing yards, joint fifth in the NFL.
- Tyler Warren (IND, TE): A central target in a passing game with 699 yards.
- Jaylen Warren (PIT, RB): 309 rushing yards at 4.41 a carry.
- DK Metcalf (PIT, WR): The downfield threat in an offence rating 80.6 through the air.
How to watch Colts vs Steelers
Kickoff is 6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at Acrisure Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET. This is not one of Channel 5 or 5ACTION’s free-to-air picks this week, so Sky Sports or NFL Game Pass on DAZN is the route to it. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Colts vs Steelers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6pm BST Sun 11 Oct / 1:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Colts vs Steelers prediction and score projection
Our Colts vs Steelers prediction is Pittsburgh 21-20. Home field decides a game this close, though one flag could swing it.
Our projected margin for this game moves alongside the live market price.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Colts vs Steelers FAQ
6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at Acrisure Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
No. This is not one of Channel 5 or 5ACTION’s free-to-air picks this week.
Indianapolis, with 16 for 105 yards in four games, the lowest count in the NFL.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change