Four touchdowns in four games. Our Bengals vs Dolphins prediction is shaped almost entirely by how little Miami has managed to score.
The Miami Dolphins are 0-4 with a point differential of -55, the worst in the league. The Cincinnati Bengals arrive 2-2 with a passing game that has produced 1,110 yards. Kickoff is 6pm BST.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati BengalsWin prob70%
Miami DolphinsWin prob30%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
Bengals vs Dolphins: our editor’s props
Two calls from our editor, to read next to Signal’s live numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Bengals vs Dolphins: 2026 form so far
One of these offences has scored 97 points and the other 46. The table sets each attack against what the opposing defence has actually allowed.
Bengals attack against the Dolphins defence
| Per game | Bengals offence | Dolphins allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 277.5 | 226.5 |
| Rushing yards | 74.2 | 109.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Passer rating | 99.5 | 110.9 |
| Touchdowns | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 45.3% | 46.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 64.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.2 | 1.0 |
Dolphins attack against the Bengals defence
| Per game | Dolphins offence | Bengals allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 163.5 | 248.0 |
| Rushing yards | 104.0 | 99.5 |
| Yards per carry | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Passer rating | 73.0 | 93.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 38.0% | 44.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 33.3% | 30.8% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.8 | 3.5 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Miami’s 73.0 passer rating and 33.3% red-zone conversion are both near the bottom of the league. The defence has been the lesser problem, which is saying something.
Bengals vs Dolphins quarterback matchup
Joe Burrow has seven touchdown passes at a 99.5 team rating. Miami’s passing game sits at 73.0.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | Joe Burrow | 28/37, 282 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 123.9 rtg | 112/157, 1171 yds, 7 TD, 3 INT, 99.5 rtg (4 games) |
| Dolphins | Malik Willis | 20/36, 210 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 61.1 rtg | 58/103, 712 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 73.0 rtg (4 games) |
Bengals vs Dolphins injury report and team news
De’Von Achane is on injured reserve, so Miami is without the back who carried the offence last season.
Cincinnati has recorded 14 sacks, level with Houston and behind only Minnesota and Detroit.
Miami’s quarterback room is Kyle McCord and Malik Willis, with the starter confirmed Friday.
Cincinnati BengalsMiami DolphinsWhat is left of the Miami offence
Forty-six points in four games is 11.5 a game. Miami has not merely been poor in the red zone, it has struggled to reach it, and a 33.3% conversion rate is the lowest in football.
Cincinnati is set up to keep it that way. Fourteen sacks and a 30.8% red-zone rate against usually produce a comfortable afternoon against an offence this limited.
The one route back is on the ground, where Miami averages 4.33 a carry against Cincinnati’s 4.52 conceded. A run-heavy plan keeps the score low, which is the only version of this that stays close.
Players to watch
- Tee Higgins (CIN, WR): 401 receiving yards from 25 catches, fourth in the NFL.
- Chase Brown (CIN, RB): 207 rushing yards behind a passing game with 1,110.
- Ollie Gordon II (MIA, RB): Carries Miami’s most productive phase at 4.33 a carry.
- Malik Washington (MIA, WR): A target in an offence with 654 passing yards all season.
How to watch Bengals vs Dolphins
Kickoff is 6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at Hard Rock Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET. This is not one of Channel 5 or 5ACTION’s free-to-air picks this week, so Sky Sports or NFL Game Pass on DAZN is the route to it. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Bengals vs Dolphins |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6pm BST Sun 11 Oct / 1:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Bengals vs Dolphins prediction and score projection
Our Bengals vs Dolphins prediction is Cincinnati 27-16. Four touchdowns in four games sets a ceiling this defence will not have to work hard to enforce.
Signal’s current read on the spread and total is live, and it moves with the news.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Bengals vs Dolphins FAQ
6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at Hard Rock Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
No. This is not one of Channel 5 or 5ACTION’s free-to-air picks this week.
Four touchdowns in four games, a 73.0 passer rating and a 33.3% red-zone conversion rate, the lowest in the league.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change