Kirk Cousins has eleven touchdown passes at 38, a share of the NFL lead. Our Raiders vs Patriots prediction covers the week’s free 5ACTION game.
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-1 and have scored 115 points. The New England Patriots are 2-2 and have scored 65, and they are without A.J. Brown and Harold Landry III.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Las Vegas RaidersWin prob24%
New England PatriotsWin prob76%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
Raiders vs Patriots: our editor’s props
Two editorial selections to sit with the live Signal read below.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Raiders vs Patriots: 2026 form so far
A visiting offence that scores and a home one that does not. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defence has conceded.
Raiders attack against the Patriots defence
| Per game | Raiders offence | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 250.0 | 189.8 |
| Rushing yards | 93.0 | 104.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.1 | 4.4 |
| Passer rating | 99.5 | 86.8 |
| Touchdowns | 3.0 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 39.6% | 38.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 53.3% | 58.3% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.2 | 2.0 |
Patriots attack against the Raiders defence
| Per game | Patriots offence | Raiders allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 213.8 | 202.8 |
| Rushing yards | 117.8 | 134.5 |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 | 5.2 |
| Passer rating | 71.9 | 85.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 34.6% | 40.4% |
| Red-zone conversion | 44.4% | 76.9% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.5 | 3.0 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Las Vegas has taken 23 penalties for 120 yards, a total only Indianapolis betters. On the road in a tight game that discipline counts.
Raiders vs Patriots quarterback matchup
Las Vegas’s passing game rates 99.5 against New England’s 71.9. Those are team figures, which include every attempt rather than just the starter’s.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | Kirk Cousins | 22/33, 248 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 119.3 rtg | 93/144, 1026 yds, 11 TD, 4 INT, 99.5 rtg (4 games) |
| Patriots | Drake Maye | 14/25, 199 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 48.6 rtg | 73/117, 854 yds, 4 TD, 7 INT, 71.0 rtg (4 games) |
| Tommy DeVito | 3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg | 3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg (1 game) |
Raiders vs Patriots injury report and team news
A.J. Brown is on injured reserve for New England, which costs the Patriots the receiver who made 1,003 yards last season. Harold Landry III is on the physically unable to perform list.
Brock Bowers remains the most reliable target in a Las Vegas passing game with 1,000 yards.
New England’s 71.9 passer rating is the third-lowest in the NFL.
Las Vegas RaidersNew England PatriotsWhere Raiders vs Patriots turns
Las Vegas throws it well and stops nobody on the ground. Opponents average 5.17 yards a carry, a figure only Carolina has exceeded, and 538 rushing yards have gone through that front in four games.
New England should be built to punish that, running for 471 yards at 3.92 a carry. The problem is what happens when it falls behind, because a 71.9 rating is not a comeback tool.
For UK viewers this is the free pick of the 6pm window, and a shootout is unlikely: it is more a question of whether New England stays within a score.
Players to watch
- Kirk Cousins (LV, QB): Eleven touchdown passes, level with Brock Purdy for the NFL lead.
- Brock Bowers (LV, TE): Central target in a passing game with 1,000 yards and twelve scores.
- TreVeyon Henderson (NE, RB): Shares a backfield against a defence conceding 5.17 a carry.
- Hunter Henry (NE, TE): A dependable target for an offence rating 71.9 through the air.
How to watch Raiders vs Patriots
Kickoff is 6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at Gillette Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET. This one is free-to-air on 5ACTION, with coverage from 5:30pm, and it also streams on Channel 5 Sport on YouTube. Free-to-air games are not affected by the Sky blackout. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Raiders vs Patriots |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6pm BST Sun 11 Oct / 1:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| TV | 5ACTION |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Raiders vs Patriots prediction and score projection
Our Raiders vs Patriots prediction is Las Vegas 23-20. The Raiders have the quarterback and the points, but a run defence this soft keeps New England in it.
The live number for this game and our own projection both move through the week.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Raiders vs Patriots FAQ
6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at Gillette Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Yes. 5ACTION has it from 5:30pm, and it also streams on Channel 5 Sport on YouTube.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
No. Brown is on injured reserve, as is Harold Landry III, who is on the PUP list.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change