Chicago has run for 785 yards. Green Bay has run for 232. Our Bears vs Packers prediction covers the widest gap between any two teams in the league.
The Chicago Bears arrive at Lambeau 3-1 with a +47 point differential. The Green Bay Packers are 2-2 and have been outscored by 32, and they are without Josh Jacobs and Jayden Reed. Kickoff is 6pm BST.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Chicago BearsWin prob55%
Green Bay PackersWin prob45%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
Bears vs Packers: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Bears vs Packers: 2026 form so far
One of these teams runs the ball better than anyone and the other barely runs it at all. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defence concedes.
Bears attack against the Packers defence
| Per game | Bears offence | Packers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 232.8 | 185.0 |
| Rushing yards | 196.2 | 139.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| Passer rating | 93.5 | 89.8 |
| Touchdowns | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 47.4% | 48.2% |
| Red-zone conversion | 42.1% | 85.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 2.5 |
Packers attack against the Bears defence
| Per game | Packers offence | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 249.2 | 179.8 |
| Rushing yards | 58.0 | 102.5 |
| Yards per carry | 3.2 | 4.9 |
| Passer rating | 86.5 | 84.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 26.1% | 23.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 46.7% | 55.6% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Green Bay turns 85.7% of opponent red-zone trips into touchdowns conceded, the worst rate in the league. Against a side built to grind, that is decisive.
Bears vs Packers quarterback matchup
Jordan Love has eight touchdown passes at an 86.5 team rating. Chicago’s passing game rates 93.5, and both lines have conceded ten sacks.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | Case Keenum | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg (1 game) |
| Packers | Jordan Love | 28/53, 312 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 75.4 rtg | 87/154, 1041 yds, 8 TD, 3 INT, 86.5 rtg (4 games) |
Bears vs Packers injury report and team news
Josh Jacobs is on the reserve exempt list and Jayden Reed is on injured reserve, so Green Bay is without its two most productive skill players from last season.
Christian Watson has 331 receiving yards, carrying a passing game with little help from the run.
Chicago’s quarterback picture will be settled by Friday’s designations.
Chicago BearsGreen Bay PackersThe 553-yard gap in Bears vs Packers
Chicago’s 785 rushing yards lead the league, split between Kyle Monangai on 324 and D’Andre Swift on 311. At 4.94 a carry it is a genuine committee.
Green Bay’s 232 rushing yards are the fewest in the NFL. At 3.18 a carry that forces obvious passing downs, and the Packers convert just 26.1% on third down as a result.
Lambeau in October is the sort of occasion British viewers set the evening aside for, and a 6pm kickoff makes it one of the easier watches of the round.
Players to watch
- Kyle Monangai (CHI, RB): 324 rushing yards in a ground game averaging 4.94 a carry.
- D’Andre Swift (CHI, RB): 311 rushing yards, the other half of Chicago’s committee.
- Christian Watson (GB, WR): 331 receiving yards, Green Bay’s leading target.
- Matthew Golden (GB, WR): 274 receiving yards in his second season.
How to watch Bears vs Packers
Kickoff is 6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at Lambeau Field, which is 1:00 PM ET. This is not one of Channel 5 or 5ACTION’s free-to-air picks this week, so Sky Sports or NFL Game Pass on DAZN is the route to it. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Bears vs Packers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6pm BST Sun 11 Oct / 1:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Bears vs Packers prediction and score projection
Our Bears vs Packers prediction is Chicago 24-20. The differential, the run game and the third-down defence all point one way, though Lambeau keeps it close.
The live line and our projected margin both move through the week.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Bears vs Packers FAQ
6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at Lambeau Field, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
No. Jacobs is on the reserve exempt list, and Jayden Reed is on injured reserve.
Chicago, by a long way. The Bears lead the NFL with 785 rushing yards; Green Bay has 232, the fewest.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change