Atlanta has allowed 193 rushing yards all season at 2.72 a carry, both the best figures in the NFL. Our Ravens vs Falcons prediction sends Derrick Henry straight at them.
The Baltimore Ravens have run for 614 yards and rate 118.4 through the air, second only to San Francisco. The Atlanta Falcons sit at 72.2 passing. This is the Sunday night game, 1.20am BST on the Monday.
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore RavensWin prob60%
Atlanta FalconsWin prob40%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
Ravens vs Falcons: our editor’s props
Two calls from our editor, to read next to Signal’s live numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Ravens vs Falcons: 2026 form so far
A run defence that has stopped everything meets a team built to run. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defence has conceded.
Ravens attack against the Falcons defence
| Per game | Ravens offence | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 241.5 | 264.8 |
| Rushing yards | 153.5 | 48.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| Passer rating | 118.4 | 87.9 |
| Touchdowns | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.4% | 36.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 73.3% | 56.2% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Falcons attack against the Ravens defence
| Per game | Falcons offence | Ravens allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 179.5 | 215.2 |
| Rushing yards | 181.0 | 100.0 |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 72.2 | 89.6 |
| Touchdowns | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 37.2% | 37.5% |
| Red-zone conversion | 80.0% | 64.3% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Atlanta’s 193 rushing yards conceded is less than a third of what Denver has given up. The trade-off is 1,059 passing yards allowed.
Ravens vs Falcons quarterback matchup
Baltimore rates 118.4 through the air against Atlanta’s 72.2. A 46.2-point gap is the widest between any two teams playing this week.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | Lamar Jackson | 15/20, 186 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 136.7 rtg | 68/96, 967 yds, 6 TD, 1 INT, 119.6 rtg (4 games) |
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg | 33/45, 479 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 113.1 rtg (2 games) |
Ravens vs Falcons injury report and team news
Baltimore has taken 39 penalties for 329 yards, among the highest counts in the league.
Bijan Robinson has 494 rushing yards, second in the NFL, and Atlanta averages 5.21 a carry.
Atlanta’s quarterback room holds Michael Penix Jr., Tua Tagovailoa and Cooper Rush.
Baltimore RavensAtlanta FalconsDerrick Henry against the best run defence in football
Atlanta’s front has been remarkable: 193 rushing yards conceded in four games at 2.72 a carry, with no other team inside 3.2. Opponents have stopped trying to run at them.
Baltimore will try anyway, but the more interesting number is 118.4 against a Falcons secondary that has conceded 1,059 yards.
A 1.20am BST kickoff makes this the hardest watch of the round for anyone in Britain. This is one for the insomniacs rather than the after-work crowd, and Game Pass has it on demand from the morning if the alarm clock wins.
Players to watch
- Derrick Henry (BAL, RB): 374 rushing yards against the best run defence in the NFL.
- Zay Flowers (BAL, WR): 352 receiving yards in a passing game rating 118.4.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): 494 rushing yards, second in the NFL.
- Drake London (ATL, WR): 370 receiving yards, Atlanta’s clear first option.
How to watch Ravens vs Falcons
Kickoff is 1.20am BST in the early hours of Monday 12 October at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which is 8:20 PM ET on the Sunday. This is not one of Channel 5 or 5ACTION’s free-to-air picks this week, so Sky Sports or NFL Game Pass on DAZN is the route to it. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Ravens vs Falcons |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1.20am BST Mon 12 Oct / 8:20 PM ET |
| Venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Ravens vs Falcons prediction and score projection
Our Ravens vs Falcons prediction is Baltimore 26-20. Atlanta will stop the run and still have to deal with the passing game.
Signal carries the live line for this game, and it moves as team news arrives.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | You are here |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Ravens vs Falcons FAQ
1.20am BST in the early hours of Monday 12 October, which is 8:20 PM ET on Sunday.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
Sky holds one exclusive pick in the Sunday 9pm window. If this is it, Game Pass has the game 24 hours later.
The best in the NFL. It has conceded 193 rushing yards at 2.72 a carry in four games.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change