A 3-1 team that has been outscored. Our Browns vs Jets prediction looks at whether Cleveland’s habit of winning by a single score can survive another week.
The Cleveland Browns have taken 43 penalties, more than anyone in the NFL. The New York Jets are 1-3 with a differential of -8, which is better than their visitors’ -14. Kickoff is 6pm BST.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
Cleveland BrownsWin prob52%
New York JetsWin prob48%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
Browns vs Jets: our editor’s props
Two editorial selections to sit with the live Signal read below.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Browns vs Jets: 2026 form so far
Two teams whose records disagree with their point differentials. The table sets each attack against what the other defence has given up.
Browns attack against the Jets defence
| Per game | Browns offence | Jets allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 198.8 | 193.2 |
| Rushing yards | 93.8 | 123.5 |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Passer rating | 101.0 | 94.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.6% | 37.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 52.9% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.8 | 2.2 |
Jets attack against the Browns defence
| Per game | Jets offence | Browns allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 202.0 | 235.2 |
| Rushing yards | 84.0 | 113.2 |
| Yards per carry | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| Passer rating | 109.0 | 90.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.0% | 37.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 54.5% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Forty-three penalties for 297 yards is a league high, and it is why Cleveland’s margin of victory keeps shrinking to one score.
Browns vs Jets quarterback matchup
New York’s passing game rates 109.0 to Cleveland’s 101.0, which is the reverse of what a 3-1 against 1-3 record suggests.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | Deshaun Watson | 16/30, 144 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 88.8 rtg | 80/115, 855 yds, 6 TD, 2 INT, 101.2 rtg (4 games) |
| Jets | Geno Smith | 31/37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 129.8 rtg | 85/117, 902 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT, 109.0 rtg (4 games) |
Browns vs Jets injury report and team news
Dillon Gabriel is on injured reserve, leaving Cleveland’s quarterback room to Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders.
Denzel Boston has 284 receiving yards as a rookie, more than any other Cleveland receiver.
New York’s run game has produced 336 yards at 3.39 a carry.
Cleveland BrownsNew York JetsWhy Browns vs Jets is closer than the records
Point differential is the honest number this early, and it says these teams are near identical: Cleveland -14, New York -8. The Browns have simply won the close ones.
Discipline should worry Cleveland. Forty-three penalties in four games is the most in the league, and against a Jets team that has been in every game, those free first downs matter more than they did against weaker opposition.
Neither offence sustains drives, so this is a field-position game and a low total. For a 6pm BST kickoff it is not the most glamorous hour of the week.
Players to watch
- Denzel Boston (CLE, WR): 284 receiving yards, more than any other Cleveland receiver.
- Quinshon Judkins (CLE, RB): Leads a ground game averaging 3.68 a carry.
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ, WR): 270 receiving yards against a defence conceding a 90.5 rating.
- Braelon Allen (NYJ, RB): Carries a run game averaging 3.39 a carry.
How to watch Browns vs Jets
Kickoff is 6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at MetLife Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET. This is not one of Channel 5 or 5ACTION’s free-to-air picks this week, so Sky Sports or NFL Game Pass on DAZN is the route to it. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Browns vs Jets |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6pm BST Sun 11 Oct / 1:00 PM ET |
| Venue | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Browns vs Jets prediction and score projection
Our Browns vs Jets prediction is Cleveland 20-17, which is the scoreline they have been producing all season. The penalty count makes it the least settled call of the round.
Signal’s win probability and projected margin update as team news lands.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:30 PM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | You are here |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 6:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Mon 1:20 AM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Tue 1:15 AM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Browns vs Jets FAQ
6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at MetLife Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
No. This is not one of Channel 5 or 5ACTION’s free-to-air picks this week.
Cleveland, by a clear margin: 43 for 297 yards in four games, the highest count in the NFL.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change