Atlanta has allowed 193 rushing yards all season at 2.72 a carry. Both are the best figures in the NFL, and our Ravens vs Falcons prediction sends Derrick Henry straight at them.
The Baltimore Ravens have run for 614 yards at 4.83 a carry and rate 118.4 through the air, second only to San Francisco. The Atlanta Falcons sit at 72.2 passing, which makes this the widest quarterback gap on the card at 46.2 points. It is the Sunday night game.
Ravens vs Falcons: our editor’s props
Two calls from our editor, to read next to Signal’s live numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Ravens vs Falcons: 2026 form so far
A run defence that has stopped everything meets a team built to run. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defence has conceded.
Ravens attack against the Falcons defence
| Per game | Ravens offence | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 241.5 | 264.8 |
| Rushing yards | 153.5 | 48.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| Passer rating | 118.4 | 87.9 |
| Touchdowns | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.4% | 36.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 73.3% | 56.2% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Falcons attack against the Ravens defence
| Per game | Falcons offence | Ravens allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 179.5 | 215.2 |
| Rushing yards | 181.0 | 100.0 |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 72.2 | 89.6 |
| Touchdowns | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 37.2% | 37.5% |
| Red-zone conversion | 80.0% | 64.3% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Atlanta’s 193 rushing yards conceded is less than a third of what Denver has given up. The trade-off is 1,059 passing yards allowed, and Baltimore is well placed to take it.
Ravens vs Falcons quarterback matchup
Baltimore rates 118.4 through the air against Atlanta’s 72.2. A 46.2-point gap is the widest between any two teams playing this week, and both are team figures.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | Lamar Jackson | 15/20, 186 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 136.7 rtg | 68/96, 967 yds, 6 TD, 1 INT, 119.6 rtg (4 games) |
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg | 33/45, 479 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 113.1 rtg (2 games) |
Ravens vs Falcons injury report and team news
Baltimore has taken 39 penalties for 329 yards, among the highest counts in the league.
Bijan Robinson has 494 rushing yards, second in the NFL, and Atlanta averages 5.21 a carry as a team.
Atlanta’s quarterback room holds Michael Penix Jr., Tua Tagovailoa and Cooper Rush, with the starter confirmed on Friday.
Derrick Henry against the best run defence in football
Atlanta’s front has been remarkable. One hundred and ninety-three rushing yards conceded in four games, at 2.72 a carry, with no other team in the league inside 3.2.
Baltimore will try anyway, because 614 rushing yards at 4.83 a carry is what it does. The more interesting number is 118.4, against a Falcons secondary that has conceded 1,059 yards.
Atlanta’s own offence is the counterweight. Bijan Robinson has 494 rushing yards, the team averages 5.21 a carry and converts 80% in the red zone. What it cannot do is throw.
Players to watch
- Derrick Henry (BAL, RB): 374 yards, running into the best front in football.
- Zay Flowers (BAL, WR): 352 yards in an attack rating 118.4.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): 494 yards, second in the league.
- Drake London (ATL, WR): 370 yards and Atlanta’s clear first read.
How to watch Ravens vs Falcons
Kickoff is 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. TSN carries it nationally, because every primetime window in Canada sits with TSN, and RDS has the French-language broadcast. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Ravens vs Falcons |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 PM ET / 7:20 PM CT / 5:20 PM PT |
| Venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| TV | TSN (English) / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN (NFL Game Pass) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Ravens vs Falcons prediction and score projection
Our Ravens vs Falcons prediction is Baltimore 26-20. Atlanta will stop the run and still have to deal with the passing game, and a 46-point rating gap is hard to overcome.
Signal carries the live line for this game, and it moves as team news arrives.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | You are here |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
Our NFL hub carries the full card, and Signal rates every Week 5 game on the same model. This one crosses the conferences, so the AFC Championship odds and the NFC Championship odds are both worth a look as the season develops.
Ravens vs Falcons FAQ
Baltimore. The Ravens are 3-1 with a +20 differential; Atlanta is 2-2 at +4.
8:20 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, which is 7:20 PM CT and 5:20 PM PT. This is the Sunday night game, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The best in the NFL. It has conceded 193 rushing yards at 2.72 a carry in four games.
To be confirmed on Friday. Michael Penix Jr., Tua Tagovailoa and Cooper Rush are all on the active roster.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change