Our NFL power rankings were updated on Tuesday 27 October 2026, after every Week 7 game. The next set lands on Tuesday 3 November, once the Monday night game closes out Week 8.
Buffalo and Minnesota share the top rating at 99, and the title column has tightened between them. The Bills, on bye, hold first place and lead the Super Bowl column on 21.6%. The Vikings are second on 20.2%, up 2.4, after a 16-10 win over Indianapolis took them to 6-0. San Francisco lost for the first time, 29-20 in Atlanta, and paid for it: down three places to sixth, seven rating points gone, and a 6.5-point drop in title probability to 9.1%, the largest fall in that column. Denver moves up to third.
Cincinnati is the week’s biggest climber, up five places to eighth after a 35-13 win in Baltimore. The Ravens and the Panthers are the biggest fallers, both down five. Carolina lost 12 rating points, the steepest drop of the week, and 38 points of playoff probability, the heaviest fall on that measure, after a 43-13 home defeat to Tampa Bay.
Below is every team, with the Squawka Signal rating behind the order, each side’s record and last result, and how far they have moved on all four measures.
NFL power rankings, Week 8
Squawka Rating is each team’s strength on a 0–100 scale from the Squawka Signal model. The ▲/▼ beside each rank shows movement since the Week 7 rankings. Playoff and Super Bowl odds come from tens of thousands of season simulations.
How to read this table
A power ranking is not a standings table. It asks who is actually good, which is a different question from who has won most so far. Seven weeks in, the clearest example on this board is still Cleveland: 5-2, top of the AFC North, and 27th of 32. The Los Angeles Rams are 3-4 and sit ninth. A list sorted by results alone would have those two the other way round, and it would be worse for it.
The Squawka Rating is a 0 to 100 measure of team strength from the Signal model. It carries a view of each roster into the season and then adjusts on what happens, weighing the margin and the quality of the opponent rather than the win column alone. That is why Tampa Bay gained 12 rating points for a 30-point road win and Carolina lost 12 for the same afternoon.
It also explains results that look strange on a scoreboard. Cleveland won in Tennessee and gained two rating points, because 491 yards came with two turnovers and a three-point margin against the 32nd-ranked team. Kansas City scored three points in Seattle and lost five rating points, dropping three places to 10th. Margin matters.
The playoff and Super Bowl figures come from simulating the rest of the season many thousands of times. They shift a little on every run, so read small differences as noise and the direction of travel as the point. The movement arrows sit beside the rank and under the rating and both probabilities. Green is up, red is down, a dash means unchanged.
The five biggest movers
Cincinnati Bengals, up five to 8th. The biggest climb of the week, with nine rating points gained, to 82, and playoff probability up 24 to 90%. Title probability rose 3.0 points to 4.7%, the largest gain in that column. The Bengals won 35-13 in Baltimore: Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns at a passer rating of 143.3, the best of the week, the offence scored on all five red-zone trips, and the team took one penalty. At 4-2 they are still only third in the AFC North.
Carolina Panthers, down five to 23rd. The steepest rating fall of the week, 12 points to 39, and the heaviest playoff fall, down 38 to 22%. A 43-13 home defeat to Tampa Bay came with four turnovers and no sack recorded. At 3-3 the Panthers still lead the NFC South, which says more about the division than about them.
Baltimore Ravens, down five to 14th. Ten rating points gone, to 69, and playoff probability down 27 to 36%. The Ravens held the ball for 35 minutes against Cincinnati and lost 35-13, going 0 for 3 in the red zone and taking 10 penalties. At 4-3 they are fourth in the AFC North.
San Francisco 49ers, down three to 6th, title probability down 6.5 to 9.1%. The largest fall in the title column this week, with seven rating points gone as well, to 87. The first defeat of the season, 29-20 in Atlanta, turned on four turnovers in a game the 49ers out-gained the Falcons 400 to 295.
Seattle Seahawks, up four to 4th. Six rating points gained, to 91, playoff probability up eight to 75%, and title probability up 1.6 to 5.4%. The Seahawks held Kansas City to three points and 213 yards and converted 11 of 16 third downs, the best rate of the week.
Two more worth the space. Tampa Bay rose four to 21st with 12 rating points gained, the biggest rating rise of the week, after running for 258 yards on 49 carries in Carolina. Atlanta rose three to 18th and added 25 points of playoff probability, to 43%, the largest gain on that measure, for beating San Francisco.
Just outside: Philadelphia fell three to 20th with 31 points of playoff probability gone, to 9%, the second-heaviest fall this week, and Kansas City fell three to 10th after scoring three points in Seattle, with title probability down 2.8 to 4.1%.
Three pages read this table from other angles. The NFL draft order inverts it, because the teams at the bottom here are the ones picking first. The injury report carries the availability behind a lot of these moves. And the MVP odds and award boards price the individuals inside the team ratings. For the model’s call on each coming week, see our NFL picks.
The contenders, 1 to 8
Rating 99 – | Make playoffs 99% +1 | Win Super Bowl 21.6% +1.2 | Week 7 Bye |
Buffalo was on bye and stays 5-1. The Bills hold first place on a rating of 99 and still carry the highest Super Bowl probability in the model at 21.6%, up 1.2 points without playing, because San Francisco and Kansas City both lost.
Week 7 in one number. 21.6% title probability, still the highest on the board, and it rose by 1.2 on a bye week.
Rating 99 +1 | Make playoffs 99% – | Win Super Bowl 20.2% +2.4 | Week 7 W 16-10 vs IND |
Minnesota is 6-0 after a 16-10 win over Indianapolis that owed more to the defence than the offence: four sacks, an interception, ten quarterback hits, and the Colts held to 108 passing yards. Kyler Murray threw for 150. The Vikings are now 20.2% to win the Super Bowl, up 2.4.
Week 7 in one number. 4 sacks of Daniel Jones, as Minnesota held the Colts to 108 passing yards.
Rating 97 +4 | Make playoffs 95% +5 | Win Super Bowl 9.7% +2.2 | Week 7 W 30-16 at ARI |
Denver is 5-2 and up one place to third after a 30-16 win in Arizona built on 160 rushing yards at 6.2 a carry, 74 of them from Bo Nix, who broke a 62-yard run. The Broncos also took 11 penalties for 114 yards, the most of any team this week. Alex Singleton led the defence with 12 tackles.
Week 7 in one number. 62 yards on the longest run by Bo Nix, part of 74 rushing yards from the quarterback.
Rating 91 +6 | Make playoffs 75% +8 | Win Super Bowl 5.4% +1.6 | Week 7 W 20-3 vs KC |
Seattle rose four places to fourth after holding Kansas City to three points and 213 yards. The Seahawks converted 11 of 16 third downs, the best rate of the week, and ran 41 times for 153. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught nine passes for 150 yards and the touchdown. Up six rating points to 91.
Week 7 in one number. 11 of 16 third downs converted, the best rate of any team this week.
Rating 89 – | Make playoffs 97% +3 | Win Super Bowl 7.3% +0.5 | Week 7 Bye |
Jacksonville was on bye and moved up one place to fifth anyway, because San Francisco lost. The Jaguars are 4-2 with a points differential of plus 50, the best in the AFC, and the model gives them a 97% chance of the playoffs.
Week 7 in one number. +50 points differential, the best in the AFC, and the Jaguars did not even play.
Rating 87 −7 | Make playoffs 96% −3 | Win Super Bowl 9.1% −6.5 | Week 7 L 20-29 at ATL |
San Francisco lost for the first time, 29-20 in Atlanta, and fell three places to sixth with seven rating points gone. Four turnovers did it: Brock Purdy threw two interceptions and the 49ers lost two fumbles despite out-gaining the Falcons 400 to 295. Title probability dropped 6.5 points to 9.1%, the biggest fall on the board.
Week 7 in one number. 4 turnovers in Atlanta, two interceptions and two lost fumbles, in a game San Francisco out-gained the Falcons 400 to 295.
Rating 87 −5 | Make playoffs 76% −10 | Win Super Bowl 3.8% −2.2 | Week 7 L 24-30 at CHI |
New England fell two places to seventh after a 30-24 defeat in Chicago on Thursday night. Drake Maye completed 24 of 31 for 321 yards, the most passing yards of any team this week, but the Patriots ran only 50 plays, took 10 penalties and threw an interception. Playoff probability down 10 to 76%.
Week 7 in one number. 321 passing yards for Drake Maye, the most of any team this week, in a defeat.
Rating 82 +9 | Make playoffs 90% +24 | Win Super Bowl 4.7% +3.0 | Week 7 W 35-13 at BAL |
Cincinnati is the week’s biggest climber, up five places to eighth, after a 35-13 win in Baltimore. Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns at a passer rating of 143.3, the best of the week, the Bengals went five for five in the red zone, and they took a single penalty. Playoff probability up 24 to 90%, and the rating rose nine rating points to 82.
Week 7 in one number. 143.3 passer rating for Joe Burrow, the best of the week, on four touchdowns and no interception.
The playoff pack, 9 to 16
Rating 82 +5 | Make playoffs 43% +6 | Win Super Bowl 2.0% +0.6 | Week 7 W 35-21 at LV |
The Rams won 35-21 in Las Vegas and moved up one place to ninth. Matthew Stafford threw three touchdowns on 23 of 29, Kyren Williams ran for 99, and Los Angeles was five for five in the red zone. Two turnovers and 90 penalty yards kept it closer than 386 yards of offence should have. Up five rating points to 82.
Week 7 in one number. 5 of 5 red-zone trips converted into touchdowns in Las Vegas.
Rating 81 −5 | Make playoffs 91% −4 | Win Super Bowl 4.1% −2.8 | Week 7 L 3-20 at SEA |
Kansas City scored three points in Seattle, its lowest total of the season, and dropped three places to 10th with five rating points gone. The Chiefs managed 213 yards, the fewest of any team this week, never reached the red zone and converted 3 of 11 third downs. Patrick Mahomes finished at a rating of 58.3. Title probability down 2.8 to 4.1%.
Week 7 in one number. 0 red-zone trips for Kansas City in Seattle, the only team not to reach it all week.
Rating 80 +3 | Make playoffs 72% +4 | Win Super Bowl 3.5% +0.6 | Week 7 W 20-17 vs GB |
Detroit held 11th after beating Green Bay 20-17 at home. The Lions gained 415 yards, Jared Goff threw for 303 and two scores at a rating of 119.7, and Amon-Ra St. Brown caught nine for 153, yet two turnovers and two red-zone conversions from five trips kept the margin at three. Up three rating points to 80.
Week 7 in one number. 153 receiving yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown on nine catches, in a game decided by three.
Rating 77 +5 | Make playoffs 65% +8 | Win Super Bowl 2.9% +1.3 | Week 7 W 30-24 vs NE |
Chicago rose two places to 12th after a 30-24 win over New England on Thursday night, a second straight victory. Caleb Williams threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, Luther Burden III caught four passes for 130, and the Bears did not turn the ball over. Playoff probability up eight to 65%.
Week 7 in one number. 130 yards for Luther Burden III on four catches, 32.5 a reception.
Rating 76 +3 | Make playoffs 76% +18 | Win Super Bowl 2.1% +0.6 | Week 7 W 16-10 at NO |
Pittsburgh won 16-10 in New Orleans for a third straight win and still slipped one place to 13th, because the teams around it moved more. The Steelers ran for 148 yards, Jaylen Warren with 101 of them, and converted 10 of 16 third downs, but scored once from four red-zone trips. Playoff probability up 18 to 76%.
Week 7 in one number. 1 of 4 red-zone trips converted, and the Steelers still won on the road.
Rating 69 −10 | Make playoffs 36% −27 | Win Super Bowl 0.7% −1.6 | Week 7 L 13-35 vs CIN |
Baltimore fell five places to 14th, level with Carolina for the biggest drop of the week, after a 35-13 home defeat to Cincinnati. The Ravens held the ball for 35 minutes and gained 359 yards but went 0 for 3 in the red zone, took 10 penalties and gave up four sacks. Ten rating points gone, and playoff probability down 27 to 36%.
Week 7 in one number. 0 of 3 red-zone trips converted at home, in a game Baltimore held the ball for 35 minutes.
Rating 69 −3 | Make playoffs 36% −23 | Win Super Bowl 0.8% −0.8 | Week 7 L 17-20 at DET |
Green Bay stayed 15th but lost 23 points of playoff probability, to 36%, after a 20-17 defeat in Detroit. Jordan Love threw 45 passes for 274 yards, the Packers ran for just 60, and they converted one of four red-zone trips. The defence forced two fumbles. At 4-3 Green Bay is fourth in the NFC North.
Week 7 in one number. 45 pass attempts for Jordan Love against 19 runs, in a three-point defeat.
Rating 61 −8 | Make playoffs 12% −13 | Win Super Bowl 0.1% −0.2 | Week 7 L 21-27 vs NYG |
Houston stayed 16th but lost eight rating points, to 61, after a 27-21 home defeat to the Giants. The Texans gained 237 yards, converted 3 of 12 third downs, and took 10 penalties for 80 yards. C.J. Stroud threw two touchdowns on 153 yards. At 2-5, playoff probability is down 13 to 12%.
Week 7 in one number. 3 of 12 third downs converted at home against the Giants.
In the hunt, 17 to 24
Rating 57 +10 | Make playoffs 32% +15 | Win Super Bowl 0.3% +0.2 | Week 7 W 38-21 at PHI |
Dallas won 38-21 in Philadelphia on Monday night and rose two places to 17th, gaining 10 rating points to reach 57. Javonte Williams ran for 155 as the Cowboys piled up 204 rushing yards, Dak Prescott threw three touchdowns without an interception, and the defence picked off Tanner McKee. Playoff probability up 15 to 32%.
Week 7 in one number. 204 rushing yards in Philadelphia, 155 of them from Javonte Williams.
Rating 53 +9 | Make playoffs 43% +25 | Win Super Bowl 0.4% +0.3 | Week 7 W 29-20 vs SF |
Atlanta beat San Francisco 29-20, the first defeat for the 49ers, and rose three places to 18th with nine rating points gained. The Falcons forced four turnovers, two interceptions and two fumbles, Michael Penix Jr. threw three touchdowns on 25 of 34 without an interception, and the offence was not sacked once. Playoff probability up 25 to 43%.
Week 7 in one number. 4 turnovers forced against a San Francisco side that arrived 6-0.
Rating 53 +8 | Make playoffs 69% +20 | Win Super Bowl 0.7% +0.4 | Week 7 W 27-21 at HOU |
The Giants won 27-21 in Houston and moved up one place to 19th, with eight rating points gained. New York ran for 188 yards and four touchdowns, Cam Skattebo with 124 of them, and held the ball for 35:50 without a turnover. J.J. McCarthy threw for 252. At 4-2-1 the Giants lead the NFC East, and playoff probability is up 20 to 69%.
Week 7 in one number. 4 rushing touchdowns in Houston, with none through the air.
Rating 52 −9 | Make playoffs 9% −31 | Win Super Bowl 0.1% −0.6 | Week 7 L 21-38 vs DAL |
Philadelphia fell three places to 20th after a 38-21 home defeat to Dallas, a fifth straight loss. The Eagles gave up 204 rushing yards, did not sack or hit Dak Prescott once, and Tanner McKee threw an interception. Nine rating points gone, and playoff probability down 31 to 9%, the second-heaviest fall on that measure this week.
Week 7 in one number. 0 sacks and quarterback hits on Dak Prescott across the whole of Monday night.
Rating 50 +12 | Make playoffs 26% +18 | Win Super Bowl 0.3% +0.3 | Week 7 W 43-13 at CAR |
Tampa Bay rose four places to 21st after a 43-13 win in Carolina, with 12 rating points gained, the biggest rating rise of the week. Baker Mayfield threw 11 passes. The Buccaneers ran 49 times for 258 yards and three touchdowns, the most rushing yards of any team this week, and the defence had five sacks and two interceptions. Playoff probability up 18 to 26%.
Week 7 in one number. 258 rushing yards on 49 carries, against 11 pass attempts.
Rating 42 – | Make playoffs 0% – | Win Super Bowl 0.0% – | Week 7 Bye |
Los Angeles was on bye and is still 0-6, the only winless team in the league. The Chargers stay 22nd on a rating of 42, which says the model sees more than the record does, but playoff probability is 0%. They return in Week 8.
Week 7 in one number. 0-6 on bye, and the only winless record left in the league.
Rating 39 −12 | Make playoffs 22% −38 | Win Super Bowl 0.1% −0.5 | Week 7 L 13-43 vs TB |
Carolina fell five places to 23rd, the joint-biggest drop of the week, after a 43-13 home defeat to Tampa Bay. The Panthers turned it over four times, Bryce Young threw two interceptions on 14 of 27, the defence did not record a sack, and the offence held the ball for 24:03. Twelve rating points gone, the steepest fall of the week, and playoff probability down 38 to 22%, the heaviest fall on the board.
Week 7 in one number. 38 points of playoff probability lost, the heaviest fall of any team this week.
Rating 38 −2 | Make playoffs 2% – | Win Super Bowl 0.0% – | Week 7 L 10-16 at MIN |
Indianapolis lost 16-10 in Minnesota, a third straight defeat, and slipped one place to 24th. Daniel Jones completed 13 of 22 for 108 yards at a passer rating of 52.8, the lowest of the week, and was sacked four times. Jonathan Taylor ran for 95 and the only touchdown. At 2-5 the playoff probability for the Colts is 2%.
Week 7 in one number. 52.8 the lowest team passer rating of the week, on 108 passing yards.
Long way back, 25 to 32
Rating 36 −3 | Make playoffs 12% −7 | Win Super Bowl 0.0% −0.1 | Week 7 L 10-16 vs PIT |
New Orleans fell one place to 25th after a 16-10 home defeat to Pittsburgh. The Saints ran 17 times for 18 yards, barely a yard a carry, and scored once from three red-zone trips. Tyler Shough completed 30 of 38 for 278 but threw an interception. At 2-5 and last in the NFC South, playoff probability is down seven to 12%.
Week 7 in one number. 18 rushing yards on 17 carries, barely a yard each, at home.
Rating 33 −2 | Make playoffs 1% −2 | Win Super Bowl 0.0% – | Week 7 Bye |
Washington was on bye and stays 1-4-1, bottom of the NFC East. The Commanders moved up one place to 26th without playing, because Las Vegas lost, but the rating slipped two to 33 and playoff probability is 1%. They return in Week 8.
Week 7 in one number. 1-4-1 on bye, and bottom of the NFC East.
Rating 33 +2 | Make playoffs 24% +9 | Win Super Bowl 0.1% +0.1 | Week 7 W 27-24 at TEN |
Cleveland won 27-24 in Tennessee and is 5-2, top of the AFC North, yet rose only one place to 27th. The model is not convinced: 491 yards, the most of any team this week, came with two turnovers, and the Browns needed three rushing touchdowns and 183 yards on the ground to beat the 32nd-ranked team by three. Playoff probability up nine to 24%.
Week 7 in one number. 491 total yards, the most of any team this week, to win by three in Tennessee.
Rating 33 −5 | Make playoffs 3% −2 | Win Super Bowl 0.0% – | Week 7 L 21-35 vs LA |
Las Vegas lost 35-21 at home to the Rams, a fourth straight defeat, and dropped two places to 28th. The Raiders converted 3 of 14 third downs, the worst rate of the week, scored once from five red-zone trips and ran for 48 yards on 17 carries. Kirk Cousins threw for 295 and two touchdowns. Five rating points gone.
Week 7 in one number. 3 of 14 third downs converted, the worst rate of the week.
Rating 25 +4 | Make playoffs 0% – | Win Super Bowl 0.0% – | Week 7 W 28-25 at NYJ |
Miami won for the first time this season, 28-25 at the Jets, and rose two places to 29th. The Dolphins ran 41 times for 156 yards, Ollie Gordon II with 103 of them, held the ball for 34:36 and did not turn it over. Malik Willis threw two touchdowns on 14 of 21 at a rating of 130.7. Four rating points gained.
Week 7 in one number. 34:36 time of possession at the Jets, in the first Miami win of the season.
Rating 24 −3 | Make playoffs 0% −1 | Win Super Bowl 0.0% – | Week 7 L 16-30 vs DEN |
Arizona lost 30-16 at home to Denver and fell one place to 30th. The Cardinals ran 75 plays and gained 353 yards but scored one touchdown from five red-zone trips and converted 5 of 17 third downs. Jacoby Brissett threw 48 passes for 272. Trey McBride caught 10 for 111. Three rating points gone.
Week 7 in one number. 1 of 5 red-zone trips converted into a touchdown, on 75 plays.
Rating 19 −4 | Make playoffs 0% – | Win Super Bowl 0.0% – | Week 7 L 25-28 vs MIA |
The Jets lost 28-25 at home to Miami, the first win of the season for the Dolphins, and slipped one place to 31st. Geno Smith threw three touchdowns on 23 of 30 at a rating of 125.3 and Braelon Allen ran for 104, but New York held the ball for 25:24, nine minutes less than Miami, and threw an interception. Four rating points gone.
Week 7 in one number. 25:24 time of possession, nine minutes less than Miami.
Rating 1 −1 | Make playoffs 0% – | Win Super Bowl 0.0% – | Week 7 L 24-27 vs CLE |
Tennessee lost 27-24 at home to Cleveland and stays 32nd on a rating of 1. Tony Pollard ran 25 times for 129 yards and all three Titans touchdowns, but Cam Ward threw an interception, the Titans lost a fumble, and the defence allowed 491 yards. At 1-6 Tennessee has the second-worst record in the league.
Week 7 in one number. 129 rushing yards for Tony Pollard, with all three Titans touchdowns.
How the rankings are calculated
The Squawka Rating is our model’s measure of team strength on a 0 to 100 scale. It begins from a view of each roster and then moves on results, weighing the margin and the strength of the opponent rather than the record alone. The playoff and Super Bowl probabilities come from simulating the remaining season many thousands of times. Tens of thousands, in fact.
These are the same figures you will find on all 32 team pages and on the NFL hub, so nothing on this site contradicts anything else on it. The Signal methodology sets out the model in full.
The table is rebuilt every Tuesday, once the Monday night game has finished the week. That timing matters. Refreshing before the full slate is in produces movement based on an incomplete week, so we wait. Availability moves a rating faster than results do, which is why our NFL injury report updates separately, every Friday.
For how the seeding works from here, see our NFL playoff predictions. Weekly game-by-game calls sit on the NFL picks page, and season-long markets are on the NFL futures page. All times here are Eastern. A 1:00pm ET Sunday game is 10:00am in Vancouver and 2:00pm in Halifax.
Our NFL power rankings were updated on 27 October 2026, after every Week 7 game. Buffalo leads on a Squawka Rating of 99, with Minnesota second, also on 99, and Denver third on 97. Tennessee sits 32nd on 1. The table is rebuilt every Tuesday once the Monday night game has finished.
Buffalo, Minnesota, Denver, Seattle and Jacksonville make up the top five. Cincinnati is the week’s biggest climber, up five places to eighth, and Baltimore and Carolina the biggest fallers, both down five after heavy home defeats.
Buffalo carries the highest Super Bowl probability in our model at 21.6%, with Minnesota next on 20.2% and Denver on 9.7%. Minnesota and San Francisco lead the NFC field on 20.2% and 9.1%, ahead of Seattle on 5.4% and Detroit on 3.5%. These are model probabilities, not sportsbook prices. They move as results come in.
Ours are rebuilt every Tuesday morning, after the Monday night game completes the week. That gives a full set of results before anything moves. Each edition explains what changed and why, so the arrows reflect a real week rather than a mid-week guess.
19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC) | Please play responsibly | Ratings and probabilities accurate at time of writing and subject to change | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). See your province’s helpline for resources elsewhere.