Four touchdowns. That is Miami’s entire output through four games, fewest in the NFL, and our Bengals vs Dolphins prediction is shaped almost entirely by that one number.
The Miami Dolphins are 0-4 with a point differential of -55, the worst in the league. The Cincinnati Bengals arrive 2-2, having beaten Pittsburgh and lost a tight one to Jacksonville, with a passing game that has produced 1,110 yards.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati BengalsWin prob70%
Miami DolphinsWin prob30%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: bet365.
Bengals vs Dolphins: our editor’s props
Two calls from our editor, to read next to Signal’s live numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Bengals vs Dolphins: 2026 form so far
One offence has scored 97 points and the other 46. The table sets each attack against what the opposing defence has actually allowed.
Bengals attack against the Dolphins defence
| Per game | Bengals offence | Dolphins allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 277.5 | 226.5 |
| Rushing yards | 74.2 | 109.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Passer rating | 99.5 | 110.9 |
| Touchdowns | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 45.3% | 46.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 64.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.2 | 1.0 |
Dolphins attack against the Bengals defence
| Per game | Dolphins offence | Bengals allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 163.5 | 248.0 |
| Rushing yards | 104.0 | 99.5 |
| Yards per carry | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Passer rating | 73.0 | 93.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 38.0% | 44.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 33.3% | 30.8% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.8 | 3.5 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Miami’s 73.0 passer rating and 33.3% red-zone conversion are both near the bottom of the league. The defence has been the lesser problem, despite conceding eleven touchdowns.
Bengals vs Dolphins quarterback matchup
Cincinnati rates 99.5 through the air and Miami 73.0. Both are team figures, which include every attempt rather than only the starter’s.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | Joe Burrow | 28/37, 282 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 123.9 rtg | 112/157, 1171 yds, 7 TD, 3 INT, 99.5 rtg (4 games) |
| Dolphins | Malik Willis | 20/36, 210 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 61.1 rtg | 58/103, 712 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 73.0 rtg (4 games) |
Bengals vs Dolphins injury report and team news
De’Von Achane is on injured reserve, so Miami is without the back who carried its offence last season. Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright have taken the carries since.
Cincinnati has recorded 14 sacks, level with Houston and behind only Minnesota and Detroit.
Miami’s quarterback room holds Kyle McCord and Malik Willis, with the starter confirmed on Friday.
Cincinnati BengalsMiami DolphinsWhat is left of the Miami offence
Forty-six points in four games works out at 11.5 a game. Miami has not merely been poor in the red zone, it has struggled to reach it, and a 33.3% conversion rate is the lowest in football.
Cincinnati’s defence is set up to keep it that way. Fourteen sacks is level with Houston, and only Minnesota and Jacksonville better a 30.8% red-zone rate against.
The one route back for Miami is on the ground. It averages 4.33 a carry, better than Cincinnati’s own 3.58, and the Bengals concede 4.52.
Players to watch
- Tee Higgins (CIN, WR): 401 yards on 25 grabs, fourth-best in the league.
- Chase Brown (CIN, RB): 207 on the ground, behind an offence throwing for 1,110.
- Ollie Gordon II (MIA, RB): Fronts the only Miami phase that works, at 4.33 a carry.
- Malik Washington (MIA, WR): A target in an attack with 654 passing yards all year.
How to watch Bengals vs Dolphins
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. CTV’s Sunday afternoon pick varies by region, so your local listings decide whether this is the game you get. RDS carries the French-language broadcast. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Bengals vs Dolphins |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| TV | CTV (regional) / TSN / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN (NFL Game Pass) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Bengals vs Dolphins prediction and score projection
Our Bengals vs Dolphins prediction is Cincinnati 27-16. Miami’s four touchdowns in four games set a ceiling this defence will not need to work hard to enforce.
Signal’s live read on the spread and total updates through the week.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
Our NFL hub carries the full card, and Signal rates every Week 5 game on the same model. Both these teams are chasing the AFC Championship odds, and the NFC Championship odds move on the same page as the season develops.
Bengals vs Dolphins FAQ
Cincinnati, comfortably. The Bengals are 2-2 with a +12 differential; Miami is 0-4 at -55, the worst in the NFL.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT, at Hard Rock Stadium.
Four touchdowns in four games, a 73.0 passer rating and a 33.3% red-zone conversion rate, the lowest in the league.
No. Achane is on injured reserve.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change