New York is 3-1 and has outscored its opponents by three points. Our Giants vs Commanders prediction looks at whether a team winning this narrowly can keep doing it.
The Washington Commanders are 1-3 and have conceded 122 points, the third-most in the league. They allow opponents to convert 80% of red-zone trips. That is the clearest route to the New York Giants finally winning by more than a field goal.
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
New York GiantsWin prob55%
Washington CommandersWin prob45%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: bet365.
Giants vs Commanders: our editor’s props
Two editorial selections to sit with the live Signal read below.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Giants vs Commanders: 2026 form so far
A 3-1 record that the point differential does not support, against a defence that has stopped very little. The table puts each attack against what the other allows.
Giants attack against the Commanders defence
| Per game | Giants offence | Commanders allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 172.8 | 242.5 |
| Rushing yards | 110.5 | 93.5 |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| Passer rating | 87.2 | 106.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 3.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 43.4% | 42.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 54.5% | 80.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.8 | 1.8 |
Commanders attack against the Giants defence
| Per game | Commanders offence | Giants allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 190.8 | 205.2 |
| Rushing yards | 124.0 | 109.0 |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| Passer rating | 89.9 | 85.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 31.6% | 48.9% |
| Red-zone conversion | 54.5% | 75.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.2 | 0.8 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Three sacks in four games is the lowest total in the NFL, and it is why New York’s defence concedes 48.9% on third down despite holding opponents to 11 touchdowns.
Giants vs Commanders quarterback matchup
Washington rates 89.9 through the air to New York’s 87.2, the narrowest passing gap in any of this week’s games. Both are team figures.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Jameis Winston | 14/22, 118 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.5 rtg | 43/78, 479 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT, 70.4 rtg (3 games) |
| Commanders | Marcus Mariota | 19/31, 183 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 110.0 rtg | 33/51, 340 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 109.9 rtg (3 games) |
Giants vs Commanders injury report and team news
Jevón Holland has three interceptions for the Giants, a share of the NFL lead.
Washington’s red-zone defence has conceded on 80% of opponent trips, the third-worst rate in the league.
Both quarterback situations will be confirmed by Friday’s designations.
New York GiantsWashington CommandersThree points, four games
New York’s +3 point differential is the thinnest of any team with a winning record. It has won three one-score games, which is a skill right up until it is not, and the underlying numbers are ordinary.
The pass rush is the concern. Three sacks in four games is the lowest figure in the league, and a defence that cannot pressure the quarterback eventually gets picked apart.
Washington is the right opponent to paper over it. It has conceded 14 touchdowns and 122 points, and an 80% red-zone rate against means every Giants drive reaching the 20 is close to a touchdown.
Players to watch
- Cam Skattebo (NYG, RB): 235 yards, into a front giving up 3.98 a carry.
- Malik Nabers (NYG, WR): First read in an attack with 691 passing yards.
- Terry McLaurin (WAS, WR): The senior man in a passing game rating 89.9.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS, RB): Fronts a run game moving at 4.2 a carry.
How to watch Giants vs Commanders
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Northwest Stadium in Landover. CTV carries one Sunday afternoon game per region and the selection is local, so confirm it in your own listings. The French-language broadcast is on RDS. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Giants vs Commanders |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD |
| TV | CTV (regional) / TSN / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN (NFL Game Pass) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Giants vs Commanders prediction and score projection
Our Giants vs Commanders prediction is New York 24-17. The Giants have been winning ugly all season and Washington’s red-zone defence is the softest they have faced.
Signal’s live read on this game updates through the week.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | You are here |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
You can find the other games on our NFL hub, with Signal’s read on all of Week 5 alongside them. Both these teams are chasing the NFC Championship odds, with the AFC Championship odds tracked alongside them through the season.
Giants vs Commanders FAQ
New York. The Giants are 3-1, though their +3 point differential is the slimmest of any team with a winning record.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT, at Northwest Stadium.
Red-zone defence. Opponents convert 80% of their trips, and the Commanders have conceded 122 points in four games.
Three, the fewest of any team in the NFL.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change