The Los Angeles Rams are the shortest price on the board for Super Bowl LXI at +550 with DraftKings, which is a 12.6% chance once the margin is stripped out. Our own model does not agree. It rates them fourth at 10.5%, and puts Buffalo top of the pile. Below are the NFL Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams with the model beside them, and a verdict on each.
Prices are from DraftKings, an Ontario-licensed sportsbook, checked 27 August 2026. Super Bowl LXI is on Sunday 14 February 2027.
NFL Super Bowl odds 2027: the full 32-team board
The market column is the DraftKings price converted to a probability with the book margin removed, so the field adds up to 100 rather than the 122.5 the raw prices imply. That is the only fair way to set a bookmaker price next to a model number. Teams are listed by price, shortest first.
| Team | DraftKings | Market chance | Signal model | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +550 | 12.6% | 10.5% | Fair |
| Buffalo Bills | +1000 | 7.4% | 13.9% | Value |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1000 | 7.4% | 4.2% | Overpriced |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1100 | 6.8% | 11.5% | Value |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1600 | 4.8% | 0.9% | Overpriced |
| New England Patriots | +1600 | 4.8% | 5.5% | Fair |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1600 | 4.8% | 7.4% | Value |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1700 | 4.5% | 2.0% | Overpriced |
| Houston Texans | +1800 | 4.3% | 6.7% | Value |
| Green Bay Packers | +1800 | 4.3% | 2.9% | Overpriced |
| Detroit Lions | +1900 | 4.1% | 6.9% | Value |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1900 | 4.1% | 2.7% | Overpriced |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +2000 | 3.9% | 1.2% | Overpriced |
| Denver Broncos | +2000 | 3.9% | 12.2% | Value |
| Chicago Bears | +2400 | 3.3% | 1.5% | Overpriced |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2500 | 3.1% | 0.6% | Overpriced |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +3000 | 2.6% | 4.9% | Value |
| Minnesota Vikings | +5000 | 1.6% | 0.8% | Overpriced |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +5000 | 1.6% | 1.5% | Fair |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +5500 | 1.5% | 0.6% | Overpriced |
| Indianapolis Colts | +6000 | 1.3% | 0.2% | Overpriced |
| Washington Commanders | +6000 | 1.3% | 0.2% | Overpriced |
| New York Giants | +7000 | 1.1% | 0.2% | Overpriced |
| New Orleans Saints | +9000 | 0.9% | 0.3% | Overpriced |
| Carolina Panthers | +9000 | 0.9% | 0.1% | Overpriced |
| Atlanta Falcons | +13000 | 0.6% | 0.4% | Overpriced |
| Tennessee Titans | +13000 | 0.6% | 0.0% | Overpriced |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +15000 | 0.5% | 0.0% | Overpriced |
| Cleveland Browns | +20000 | 0.4% | 0.0% | Overpriced |
| New York Jets | +20000 | 0.4% | 0.0% | Overpriced |
| Miami Dolphins | +35000 | 0.2% | 0.1% | Overpriced |
| Arizona Cardinals | +50000 | 0.2% | 0.0% | Overpriced |
Where the model disagrees most
The widest gap on the board is Denver. DraftKings has the Broncos at +2000, a 3.9% chance, while the model gives them 12.2% and ranks them second overall. That is a gap of more than three times. Set it against the rest of the market and the tension is obvious: the same books price Denver for 9.5 regular season wins, which is a solid team rather than a title favourite. One of those two readings is wrong.
Buffalo is the other one. The Bills sit joint second in the market at +1000, worth 7.4%, and the model has them clear at the top on 13.9%. Seattle follows the same shape, 6.8% against 11.5%.
The disagreement runs the other way at Kansas City and Baltimore. Both are priced inside the top five, the Chiefs at +1600 and the Ravens at +1000, and the model has them at 0.9% and 4.2%. Kansas City is the starker one. The market still prices them for 10.5 wins, while the model gives them a 35% chance of reaching the playoffs at all. Patrick Mahomes is the favourite for Comeback Player of the Year after a knee injury in December, and the model is clearly discounting that uncertainty harder than the books are.
Why most of the board reads overpriced
Seven teams come out as value, three as fair, and 22 as overpriced. That looks lopsided until you see why. Our model backs a much narrower field than the market does: it puts almost 75% of the Super Bowl probability in the top eight teams, where DraftKings spreads it far wider and gives the tail real chances.
So the long shots read overpriced almost by construction. A team at +20000 needs a 0.4% chance to be fairly priced, and the model gives several of them 0.0%. Read that as a disagreement about how open the season is, not as 22 bets to lay. The model can be wrong about the tail, and one injury to a favourite reprices the whole board.
How the Signal model prices the Super Bowl
Every team carries an Elo-based power rating with a quarterback adjustment on top. We then simulate the rest of the season tens of thousands of times, seeding the playoffs on the NFL’s real tiebreaker rules and running the bracket out to a neutral-site final. How often a team lifts the trophy across those runs is the number in the table. The full methodology is here.
The flags are mechanical. At least 35%% higher than the de-vigged price is value, 20%% lower or worse is overpriced, anything between is fair.
Key dates on the way to Super Bowl LXI
| Stage | Date | Why it matters for the price |
|---|---|---|
| Season kickoff | Wednesday 9 September 2026 | First live football moves the board more than all of August |
| Week 18 | Sunday 10 January 2027 | Seeding settles; resting starters distorts late lines |
| Wild Card weekend | From Saturday 16 January 2027 | 14 teams left, prices compress fast |
| Divisional round | 23 and 24 January 2027 | Eight left |
| Conference championships | Sunday 31 January 2027 | Two left, and the two-week wait begins |
| Super Bowl LXI | Sunday 14 February 2027, 6:30 pm ET | Valentine’s Day, and the biggest single betting event of the year |
Futures prices are at their softest now and at their sharpest in January. If you like a team at a long price, the value is in taking it before the market has seen them play.
AFC and NFC Championship odds: the shorter route
Every team above has to win its own conference first. The AFC and NFC run separate brackets from mid-January, and only the two winners meet. That makes a conference future the same bet with a round taken out: three playoff wins at most instead of four, and no exposure to whatever comes out of the other half of the league. Both conference finals are on Sunday 31 January 2027.
Where our model likes a team, the conference market is often the better expression of it, because the model’s disagreement with the market tends to sit in who reaches February rather than who wins the final. The top eight in each conference are below.
AFC Championship odds
Buffalo and Baltimore share the shortest price at +500, and this is where the model splits hardest from the market anywhere on the board: 23.3% for the Bills against 8.5% for the Ravens. Denver is the widest gap in the conference, 8.1% priced against 20.9% modelled, and Kansas City the clearest fade at 10.2% against 2.1%. Prices checked 27 August 2026.
| Team | DraftKings | Market chance | Signal model | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +500 | 14.5% | 23.3% | Value |
| Baltimore Ravens | +500 | 14.5% | 8.5% | Overpriced |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +750 | 10.2% | 2.1% | Overpriced |
| New England Patriots | +800 | 9.6% | 10.5% | Fair |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +830 | 9.3% | 4.2% | Overpriced |
| Houston Texans | +870 | 8.9% | 12.8% | Value |
| Denver Broncos | +970 | 8.1% | 20.9% | Value |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1025 | 7.7% | 2.8% | Overpriced |
NFC Championship odds
The Rams are the shortest price in either conference at +295, and here the model does not argue: 20.1% against a market read of 21.8%. Its disagreement is with everything behind them, and Seattle is the standout at 12.3% priced against 21.9% modelled. These NFC prices were last published on 21 July 2026, so they are older than the rest of this page. Check the current number in your own book.
| Team | DraftKings | Market chance | Signal model | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +295 | 21.8% | 20.1% | Fair |
| Seattle Seahawks | +600 | 12.3% | 21.9% | Value |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +820 | 9.4% | 16.1% | Value |
| Green Bay Packers | +900 | 8.6% | 6.7% | Overpriced |
| Detroit Lions | +930 | 8.4% | 14.6% | Value |
| San Francisco 49ers | +960 | 8.1% | 6.4% | Overpriced |
| Chicago Bears | +1250 | 6.4% | 3.6% | Overpriced |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1300 | 6.2% | 1.8% | Overpriced |
Betting the Super Bowl from Canada
Where you can place a Super Bowl bet depends on your province, because sports betting is regulated provincially rather than nationally.
| Province or region | Who takes your bet | Minimum age |
|---|---|---|
| Ontario | Licensed private sportsbooks in the AGCO market | 19+ |
| Alberta | Licensed private sportsbooks plus Play Alberta | 18+ |
| British Columbia and Saskatchewan | PlayNow | 19+ |
| Manitoba | PlayNow | 18+ |
| Quebec | Mise-o-jeu+ from Loto-Quebec | 18+ |
| Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, PEI, Newfoundland | Atlantic Lottery | 19+ |
A Super Bowl future is a single bet that sits for months, so shop the price before you place it. The gap between the shortest and longest price on the same team can be worth more than any read on the game. Our best NFL betting sites in Canada page covers who is licensed where, and the NFL futures page has the rest of the season-long board.
NFL Super Bowl odds FAQ
The Los Angeles Rams, at +550 with DraftKings as of 27 August 2026, which is about a 12.6% chance with the margin removed. Our model disagrees and rates Buffalo the most likely winner at 13.9%.
Sunday 14 February 2027, kicking off at 6:30 pm Eastern. It falls on Valentine’s Day.
It is the DraftKings price turned into a probability with the bookmaker’s margin taken out. Raw prices across 32 teams add up to about 122%, so we scale them back to 100 to compare them fairly against the model.
Yes, but not always with the same operator. Ontario and Alberta have open markets with licensed private sportsbooks. British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan use PlayNow, Quebec uses Mise-o-jeu+, and Atlantic Canada uses the Atlantic Lottery.
Prices are longest before the season and shortest once the playoff field is set. Betting early gets a bigger price on more uncertainty. Waiting gets more information and less value.
The conference is the shorter route: at most three playoff wins instead of four, and no exposure to the other half of the league. The price is shorter to match. Our model’s disagreement with the market usually sits in who reaches February, so the conference market often expresses that view better than the outright.
19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON), see your province’s helpline for resources elsewhere. Odds shown at the time of writing and subject to change. Model figures are estimates, not predictions.