Buffalo has scored 127 points, more than any team in the NFL. Los Angeles has conceded 582 passing yards, fewer than all but one. Our Bills vs Rams prediction covers the Monday night game those two numbers deserve.
The Buffalo Bills are 3-1 and average 5.05 yards a carry on the ground. The Los Angeles Rams are 2-2 with a +2 differential. They are without Myles Garrett, who is on injured reserve after 23 sacks last season.
Bills vs Rams: our editor’s props
Two editorial selections to sit with the live Signal read below.
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Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Bills vs Rams: 2026 form so far
The highest-scoring team in football against one of its stingiest secondaries. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defence has given up.
Bills attack against the Rams defence
| Per game | Bills offence | Rams allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 247.2 | 145.5 |
| Rushing yards | 139.0 | 102.0 |
| Yards per carry | 5.1 | 4.0 |
| Passer rating | 100.1 | 75.4 |
| Touchdowns | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 53.3% | 33.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 68.8% | 58.3% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.2 | 1.8 |
Rams attack against the Bills defence
| Per game | Rams offence | Bills allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 290.2 | 256.2 |
| Rushing yards | 126.8 | 116.0 |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| Passer rating | 80.4 | 103.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 43.1% | 40.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 53.3% | 68.8% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.5 | 2.5 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Buffalo’s 127 points lead the league and its 53.3% third-down rate is second only to San Francisco. The Rams have conceded nine touchdowns in four games, so something gives here.
Bills vs Rams quarterback matchup
Buffalo rates 100.1 through the air to the Rams’ 80.4, though Los Angeles has thrown for 1,161 yards, the second-most in the NFL. Both are team figures.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | Josh Allen | 16/26, 204 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 54.0 rtg | 79/119, 1039 yds, 6 TD, 3 INT, 100.1 rtg (4 games) |
| Rams | Matthew Stafford | 30/55, 390 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 74.1 rtg | 99/162, 1189 yds, 6 TD, 6 INT, 80.5 rtg (4 games) |
Bills vs Rams injury report and team news
Myles Garrett is on injured reserve for Los Angeles, taking out a pass rusher who recorded 23 sacks last season.
Greg Rousseau has six sacks for Buffalo, the most of any player in the NFL.
Davante Adams has 390 receiving yards for the Rams, fifth in the league.
Monday night at SoFi
Buffalo scores in every way available. One hundred and twenty-seven points leads the league, 556 rushing yards at 5.05 a carry is among the best ground games in football, and a 53.3% third-down rate keeps drives alive.
The Rams have the defence to make it awkward. A 75.4 opponent passer rating is third-best in the NFL, 582 passing yards conceded is second-fewest, and they allow just 33.3% on third down. The absence of Myles Garrett matters more against an offence this balanced.
Los Angeles has thrown for 1,161 yards itself, second only to Carolina, which suggests a shootout. The 80.4 rating behind it suggests otherwise.
Players to watch
- James Cook III (BUF, RB): 421 yards, third in the league.
- Dalton Kincaid (BUF, TE): 270 yards, level for 13th.
- Davante Adams (LA, WR): 390 yards, fifth in football.
- Kyren Williams (LA, RB): 294 yards against a front conceding 4.04 a carry.
How to watch Bills vs Rams
Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 12 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. TSN carries it nationally, because every primetime window in Canada sits with TSN, and RDS has the French-language broadcast. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Bills vs Rams |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, October 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 PM ET / 7:15 PM CT / 5:15 PM PT |
| Venue | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| TV | TSN (English) / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN (NFL Game Pass) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Bills vs Rams prediction and score projection
Our Bills vs Rams prediction is Buffalo 27-23. The Rams have the better secondary and will keep this close, but 127 points in four games is not a sample that corrects itself on a Monday night.
Signal’s live probability and the current market number update through to kickoff.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | You are here |
You can find the other games on our NFL hub, with Signal’s read on all of Week 5 alongside them. This one crosses the conferences, so the AFC Championship odds and the NFC Championship odds are both worth a look as the season develops.
Bills vs Rams FAQ
Buffalo. The Bills are 3-1 and lead the NFL with 127 points; Los Angeles is 2-2 at +2.
8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 12, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT. This is the Monday night game, at SoFi Stadium.
No. Garrett is on injured reserve for the Rams.
Buffalo, with 127 in four games, ahead of San Francisco and Dallas on 122.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change