Sixteen penalties in four games. Indianapolis is the most disciplined team in the NFL by a clear margin, and our Colts vs Steelers prediction asks whether that is worth more than Pittsburgh’s home field.
Both the Indianapolis Colts and the Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-2 with negative point differentials, the Colts by two points and the Steelers by ten. Indianapolis converts 75% of its red-zone trips despite a 73.9 passer rating.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis ColtsWin prob39%
Pittsburgh SteelersWin prob61%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: bet365.
Colts vs Steelers: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Colts vs Steelers: 2026 form so far
Two 2-2 teams separated by eight points of differential. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defence has given up.
Colts attack against the Steelers defence
| Per game | Colts offence | Steelers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 174.8 | 209.5 |
| Rushing yards | 109.5 | 112.8 |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Passer rating | 73.9 | 92.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 37.7% | 34.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Steelers attack against the Colts defence
| Per game | Steelers offence | Colts allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 223.0 | 261.2 |
| Rushing yards | 94.8 | 131.0 |
| Yards per carry | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Passer rating | 80.6 | 98.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.0% | 29.2% |
| Red-zone conversion | 44.4% | 57.1% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.2 | 2.2 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Indianapolis has taken 16 penalties for 105 yards, the fewest of any team in the NFL. In a game this evenly matched, free yardage is the kind of edge that decides it.
Colts vs Steelers quarterback matchup
Pittsburgh rates 80.6 through the air against Indianapolis’s 73.9. Both lines have struggled: the Steelers have conceded 13 sacks, the Colts eight.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | Daniel Jones | 24/36, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 82.5 rtg | 84/132, 754 yds, 3 TD, 4 INT, 73.9 rtg (4 games) |
| Steelers | Aaron Rodgers | 19/34, 292 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 101.6 rtg | 88/153, 999 yds, 7 TD, 4 INT, 81.6 rtg (4 games) |
Colts vs Steelers injury report and team news
Alec Pierce is on injured reserve for Indianapolis, so the Colts remain without the receiver who made 1,003 yards last season.
T.J. Watt has four sacks for Pittsburgh, joint third in the league.
Jaylen Warren has 309 rushing yards at 4.41 a carry, the most productive part of the Pittsburgh offence.
Indianapolis ColtsPittsburgh SteelersDiscipline against home field
Indianapolis does the small things well. Sixteen penalties for 105 yards is the lowest count in football, it converts 75% in the red zone, and it holds opponents to 29.2% on third down.
What it cannot do is throw. A 73.9 passer rating is among the lowest in the league, and 699 passing yards in four games means Jonathan Taylor carries the offence.
Pittsburgh’s problem is protection. Thirteen sacks conceded is second only to Tampa Bay, and against a Colts front with nine of its own that is the pressure point.
Players to watch
- Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB): 353 yards, level for fifth in the league.
- Tyler Warren (IND, TE): A first read in a passing game worth 699 yards.
- Jaylen Warren (PIT, RB): 309 yards at a healthy 4.41 a carry.
- DK Metcalf (PIT, WR): The deep threat for an offence rating 80.6.
How to watch Colts vs Steelers
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. CTV carries one Sunday afternoon game per region and the selection is local, so confirm it in your own listings. The French-language broadcast is on RDS. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Colts vs Steelers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| TV | CTV (regional) / TSN / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN (NFL Game Pass) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Colts vs Steelers prediction and score projection
Our Colts vs Steelers prediction is Pittsburgh 21-20. Home field decides a game this close, though Indianapolis’s discipline makes it the sort of afternoon where one flag swings it.
Our projected margin updates alongside the live market price.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
The rest of the week is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every Week 5 game the same way. Both these teams are chasing the AFC Championship odds, and the NFC Championship odds move on the same page as the season develops.
Colts vs Steelers FAQ
Pittsburgh, at home, in a game between two 2-2 teams. The Steelers are -10 on differential, the Colts -2.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT, at Acrisure Stadium.
Indianapolis, with 16 for 105 yards in four games, the lowest count in the NFL.
Thirteen, second-most in the league behind Tampa Bay.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change