Chicago has run for 785 yards. Green Bay has run for 232. That is the widest gap between any two teams in the NFL, and our Bears vs Packers prediction starts there.
Lambeau on a Sunday afternoon, and the Chicago Bears arrive 3-1 with a +47 point differential. The Green Bay Packers are 2-2 and have been outscored by 32. They are also without Josh Jacobs, on the reserve exempt list, and Jayden Reed, on injured reserve.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Chicago BearsWin prob55%
Green Bay PackersWin prob45%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: bet365.
Bears vs Packers: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Bears vs Packers: 2026 form so far
One team runs the ball better than anyone; the other barely runs it at all. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defence has conceded.
Bears attack against the Packers defence
| Per game | Bears offence | Packers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 232.8 | 185.0 |
| Rushing yards | 196.2 | 139.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| Passer rating | 93.5 | 89.8 |
| Touchdowns | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 47.4% | 48.2% |
| Red-zone conversion | 42.1% | 85.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 2.5 |
Packers attack against the Bears defence
| Per game | Packers offence | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 249.2 | 179.8 |
| Rushing yards | 58.0 | 102.5 |
| Yards per carry | 3.2 | 4.9 |
| Passer rating | 86.5 | 84.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 26.1% | 23.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 46.7% | 55.6% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Green Bay concedes touchdowns on 85.7% of opponent red-zone trips, the worst rate in the NFL. Against a Chicago team built to grind the field, that turns field goals into seven points.
Bears vs Packers quarterback matchup
Green Bay rates 86.5 through the air and Chicago 93.5. Both lines have conceded ten sacks, and both figures are team numbers.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | Case Keenum | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg (1 game) |
| Packers | Jordan Love | 28/53, 312 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 75.4 rtg | 87/154, 1041 yds, 8 TD, 3 INT, 86.5 rtg (4 games) |
Bears vs Packers injury report and team news
Josh Jacobs is on the reserve exempt list and Jayden Reed is on injured reserve.
Christian Watson has 331 receiving yards for Green Bay, well clear of any teammate.
Chicago’s quarterback picture will be settled by Friday’s designations.
Chicago BearsGreen Bay PackersThe 553-yard gap in Bears vs Packers
Chicago’s 785 rushing yards lead the league. Kyle Monangai has 324 and D’Andre Swift 311, which is a genuine committee rather than one back and a backup.
Green Bay’s 232 rushing yards are the fewest in the NFL, and 3.18 a carry forces a quarterback into obvious passing downs. The Packers convert 26.1% on third down.
Defensively the gap is as wide. Chicago allows 23.7% on third down, second only to Minnesota; Green Bay allows 48.2%. Over sixty minutes that compounds.
Players to watch
- Kyle Monangai (CHI, RB): 324 yards in a backfield humming along at 4.94 a carry.
- D’Andre Swift (CHI, RB): 311 yards, the other half of a genuine committee.
- Christian Watson (GB, WR): 331 yards, and daylight between him and the next Packer.
- Matthew Golden (GB, WR): 274 yards in a second season carrying more than expected.
How to watch Bears vs Packers
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. CTV carries one Sunday afternoon game per region and the selection is local, so confirm it in your own listings. The French-language broadcast is on RDS. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Bears vs Packers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| TV | CTV (regional) / TSN / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN (NFL Game Pass) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Bears vs Packers prediction and score projection
Our Bears vs Packers prediction is Chicago 24-20. The differential, the run game and the third-down defence point one way, though Lambeau keeps it honest.
Our projected margin here will shift once Friday’s designations are filed.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
The rest of the week is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every Week 5 game the same way. Both these teams are chasing the NFC Championship odds, with the AFC Championship odds tracked alongside them through the season.
Bears vs Packers FAQ
Chicago. The Bears are 3-1 with a +47 point differential; Green Bay is 2-2 at -32.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT, at Lambeau Field.
No. Jacobs is on the reserve exempt list. Jayden Reed is also unavailable, on injured reserve.
Chicago, by a long way. The Bears lead the NFL with 785 rushing yards; Green Bay has 232, the fewest.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change