Cleveland is 3-1 and has been outscored by 14 points. No other team in the league carries that combination, and our Browns vs Jets prediction asks how long it holds.
Three one-score wins will do that. The Cleveland Browns have taken 43 penalties, more than anyone else in the NFL. The New York Jets are 1-3 with a differential of -8.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
Cleveland BrownsWin prob52%
New York JetsWin prob48%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: bet365.
Browns vs Jets: our editor’s props
Two editorial selections to sit with the live Signal read below.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Browns vs Jets: 2026 form so far
Two teams whose records disagree with their point differentials. The table puts each attack against what the other defence has given up.
Browns attack against the Jets defence
| Per game | Browns offence | Jets allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 198.8 | 193.2 |
| Rushing yards | 93.8 | 123.5 |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Passer rating | 101.0 | 94.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.6% | 37.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 52.9% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.8 | 2.2 |
Jets attack against the Browns defence
| Per game | Jets offence | Browns allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 202.0 | 235.2 |
| Rushing yards | 84.0 | 113.2 |
| Yards per carry | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| Passer rating | 109.0 | 90.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.0% | 37.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 54.5% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Forty-three penalties for 297 yards is a league high, and it is the clearest reason Cleveland’s winning margins keep shrinking to a single score.
Browns vs Jets quarterback matchup
New York rates 109.0 through the air to Cleveland’s 101.0, the opposite of what the records suggest. Both are team figures.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | Deshaun Watson | 16/30, 144 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 88.8 rtg | 80/115, 855 yds, 6 TD, 2 INT, 101.2 rtg (4 games) |
| Jets | Geno Smith | 31/37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 129.8 rtg | 85/117, 902 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT, 109.0 rtg (4 games) |
Browns vs Jets injury report and team news
Dillon Gabriel is on injured reserve, so Cleveland’s quarterback room is Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders.
Denzel Boston has 284 receiving yards as a rookie, more than any other Cleveland receiver.
New York has run for 336 yards at 3.39 a carry, the weaker ground game in this matchup.
Cleveland BrownsNew York JetsWhy Browns vs Jets is closer than the standings
Point differential is the honest number this early, and it has these teams near identical. Cleveland has simply won the close ones, taking Pittsburgh 27-24 and grinding out two more by a score.
Discipline is the risk. Forty-three penalties in four games leads the league, and New York has been within one score in every game it has played.
Neither offence sustains drives. Both convert under a third of their third downs, so whoever wins the turnover count probably wins the game.
Players to watch
- Denzel Boston (CLE, WR): 284 yards receiving, the pick of a thin Cleveland group.
- Quinshon Judkins (CLE, RB): Front of a committee grinding out 3.68 a carry.
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ, WR): 270 yards, and the volume that comes with trailing.
- Braelon Allen (NYJ, RB): Shoulders a run game stuck at 3.39 a carry.
How to watch Browns vs Jets
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. CTV’s Sunday afternoon pick varies by region, so your local listings decide whether this is the game you get. RDS carries the French-language broadcast. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Browns vs Jets |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| TV | CTV (regional) / TSN / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN (NFL Game Pass) |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Browns vs Jets prediction and score projection
Our Browns vs Jets prediction is Cleveland 20-17. That is the scoreline they keep producing, and the penalty count makes it the least settled call on the card.
Signal’s live numbers for this game move through the week.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
You can find the other games on our NFL hub, with Signal’s read on all of Week 5 alongside them. Both these teams are chasing the AFC Championship odds, and the NFC Championship odds move on the same page as the season develops.
Browns vs Jets FAQ
Cleveland, narrowly. The Browns are 3-1, though their -14 point differential is worse than New York’s -8.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT, at MetLife Stadium.
CTV carries a Sunday afternoon game in each region, so check your local listings. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass.
Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders. Dillon Gabriel is on injured reserve.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change