The World Cup outright odds are down to the final four — and the semi-finals could hardly be bigger: France meet Spain in Dallas on Tuesday, before England face Argentina in Atlanta on Wednesday.
The market has rarely been tighter this deep into a World Cup. France remain favourites at 6/4, but Spain, England and Argentina are covered by less than half a point between 10/3 and 18/5 after both weekend quarter-finals went to extra time.
Below, we have ranked all four semi-finalists by their latest outright price — with a verdict on each.
World Cup 2026 outright odds: every team left
| Rank | Team | Odds (bet365) | Semi-final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 6/4 | Spain (14th July) |
| 2 | Spain | 10/3 | France (14th July) |
| 3 | England | 7/2 | Argentina (15th July) |
| 4 | Argentina | 18/5 | England (15th July) |
Odds via bet365, correct at the time of writing on 12th July and subject to change.
All four semi-finalists ranked
1. France — 6/4
France are the only team already through to the semi-finals and are now strong favourites, and it is not hard to see why. Didier Deschamps’ side swatted Sweden aside 3-0 without leaving second gear, and navigated a war against Paraguay — thanks to Kylian Mbappe’s second-half penalty — to reach the quarter-finals. There, a win over Morocco showcased their strength again, with Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele finding the net in a 2-0 win. Spain on Tuesday is the game this tournament deserves. Short price, few arguments.
2. Spain — 10/3
Spain have been the tournament’s most complete side and the 3-0 win over Austria barely tested them. They were also able to overcome Portugal in the Round of 16, as well as Belgium in the quarter-final but they needed late goals in both to secure victory. Are they struggling to beat teams or showing remarkable resilience? France in Tuesday’s semi-final will settle that question one way or the other.
3. England — 7/2
England have answered some questions in the knockout stages so far. They’ve proven that they can overcome adversity. First, the Three Lions came from a goal down to beat DR Congo — showing they can recover from setbacks. England then beat Mexico 3-2 at the Estadio Azteca despite playing 40 minutes with 10 men. In Miami they passed their sternest test yet, wearing down Norway 2-1 in extra time — and the market responded, cutting them from 5/1 to 7/2. Argentina in Wednesday’s semi-final is the biggest game of the Thomas Tuchel era.
4. Argentina — 18/5
The holders trailed Egypt at half-time and won 3-2 anyway — the second straight game Argentina have stared at trouble and simply refused to blink. Isn’t that what champions do? In Kansas City they did it yet again — level with Switzerland after 90 minutes before pulling clear 3-1 in extra time. England in Atlanta on Wednesday awaits, and the holders are somehow the biggest price of the four at 18/5.
Who will win the 2026 World Cup?
France are worthy favourites: the deepest squad, the calmest knockout pedigree and an in-form Kylian Mbappe. Spain are the best team in the tournament on the evidence so far. By Tuesday night in Dallas, that argument will have settled itself.
All in all, there is no hiding place left in this market. If France at 6/4 feels short for a side yet to meet a genuine heavyweight, England at 7/2 — with the tournament’s two form sides still between them and the trophy — is the price that asks the most. For the latest prices on every market, see our World Cup top goalscorer odds, and if you are watching the knockouts, our World Cup live streaming guide and the latest free bet offers have every game covered.
