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Squawka / NFL News / Raiders vs Patriots Prediction & Tips: Week 5

Raiders vs Patriots Prediction & Tips: Week 5

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots prediction, picks and odds for Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season

Kirk Cousins has eleven touchdown passes at 38, a share of the NFL lead. Our Raiders vs Patriots prediction covers the week’s free 5ACTION game.

The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-1 and have scored 115 points. The New England Patriots are 2-2 and have scored 65, and they are without A.J. Brown and Harold Landry III.

Squawka Signal · Model read

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET. Our Signal model makes the New England Patriots favourites by about 8 points, a 76% win probability.

LVLas Vegas RaidersWin prob24%
NENew England PatriotsWin prob76%
Projected lineNew England Patriots -8

Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.

Week 5 · Editorial pick

Raiders vs Patriots: our editor’s props

Two editorial selections to sit with the live Signal read below.

Raiders AT Patriots

Our props

Player propKirk Cousins 2+ passing touchdownsCousins has eleven in four games, a share of the league lead, at a 99.5 team rating. New England has conceded nine touchdowns and an 86.8 opponent rating.
★★★☆☆3/5 confidence
TotalOver 43.5 pointsLas Vegas concedes 5.17 yards a carry and allows opponents 76.9% of red-zone trips, the fourth-worst rate in the league. New England can run the ball even when the passing game stalls.
★★☆☆☆2/5 confidence

An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org

Raiders vs Patriots: 2026 form so far

A visiting offence that scores and a home one that does not. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defence has conceded.

Raiders attack against the Patriots defence

Per gameRaiders offencePatriots allow
Passing yards250.0189.8
Rushing yards93.0104.0
Yards per carry3.14.4
Passer rating99.586.8
Touchdowns3.02.2
Third-down conversion39.6%38.3%
Red-zone conversion53.3%58.3%
Sacks conceded / recorded1.22.0

Patriots attack against the Raiders defence

Per gamePatriots offenceRaiders allow
Passing yards213.8202.8
Rushing yards117.8134.5
Yards per carry3.95.2
Passer rating71.985.8
Touchdowns1.82.8
Third-down conversion34.6%40.4%
Red-zone conversion44.4%76.9%
Sacks conceded / recorded2.53.0

Figures are season to date, across 4 games.

Las Vegas has taken 23 penalties for 120 yards, a total only Indianapolis betters. On the road in a tight game that discipline counts.

Raiders vs Patriots quarterback matchup

Las Vegas’s passing game rates 99.5 against New England’s 71.9. Those are team figures, which include every attempt rather than just the starter’s.

TeamQuarterbackLast gameSeason to date
RaidersKirk Cousins22/33, 248 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 119.3 rtg93/144, 1026 yds, 11 TD, 4 INT, 99.5 rtg (4 games)
PatriotsDrake Maye14/25, 199 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 48.6 rtg73/117, 854 yds, 4 TD, 7 INT, 71.0 rtg (4 games)
Tommy DeVito3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg (1 game)
Last game is Week 3. Season figures are 2026 to date, with games played in brackets.

Raiders vs Patriots injury report and team news

A.J. Brown is on injured reserve for New England, which costs the Patriots the receiver who made 1,003 yards last season. Harold Landry III is on the physically unable to perform list.

Brock Bowers remains the most reliable target in a Las Vegas passing game with 1,000 yards.

New England’s 71.9 passer rating is the third-lowest in the NFL.

Injury report · Week 5Official game-status report — updates through the week
LVLas Vegas Raiders
No game-status designations filed yet.
Out long-term
Chigozie AnusiemCBIR
Keyron CrawfordDEIR
Justin PickettGIR
Brennan JacksonLBIR
Chris CollierRBIR
Carter RunyonTEIR
Corey RuckerWRIR
Dont’e Thornton Jr.WRIR
Jack BechWRIR
NENew England Patriots
No game-status designations filed yet.
Out long-term
Khalil JacobsLBIR
Quintayvious HutchinsLBIR
Greg Van RotenOLIR
Mike OnwenuOLIR
Bryce BaringerPIR
Myles MontgomeryRBIR
Dell PettusSAFIR
Marcus BryantTIR
Julian HillTEIR
A.J. BrownWRIR
Jeremiah WebbWRIR
Harold Landry IIILBPUP

Where Raiders vs Patriots turns

Las Vegas throws it well and stops nobody on the ground. Opponents average 5.17 yards a carry, a figure only Carolina has exceeded, and 538 rushing yards have gone through that front in four games.

New England should be built to punish that, running for 471 yards at 3.92 a carry. The problem is what happens when it falls behind, because a 71.9 rating is not a comeback tool.

For UK viewers this is the free pick of the 6pm window, and a shootout is unlikely: it is more a question of whether New England stays within a score.

Players to watch

  • Kirk Cousins (LV, QB): Eleven touchdown passes, level with Brock Purdy for the NFL lead.
  • Brock Bowers (LV, TE): Central target in a passing game with 1,000 yards and twelve scores.
  • TreVeyon Henderson (NE, RB): Shares a backfield against a defence conceding 5.17 a carry.
  • Hunter Henry (NE, TE): A dependable target for an offence rating 71.9 through the air.

How to watch Raiders vs Patriots

Kickoff is 6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at Gillette Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET. This one is free-to-air on 5ACTION, with coverage from 5:30pm, and it also streams on Channel 5 Sport on YouTube. Free-to-air games are not affected by the Sky blackout. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.

DetailRaiders vs Patriots
DateSunday, October 11, 2026
Kickoff6pm BST Sun 11 Oct / 1:00 PM ET
VenueGillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
TV5ACTION
Live streamNFL Game Pass (DAZN)
WeekWeek 5, 2026 NFL season

Raiders vs Patriots prediction and score projection

Our Raiders vs Patriots prediction is Las Vegas 23-20. The Raiders have the quarterback and the points, but a run defence this soft keeps New England in it.

The live number for this game and our own projection both move through the week.

Every Week 5 game, previewed

Kickoff (BST)GameOur predictionPreview
Fri 1:15 AMBuccaneers @ CowboysCowboys 27-20Read
Sun 2:30 PMEagles @ JaguarsJaguars 24-17Read
Sun 6:00 PMBears @ PackersBears 24-20Read
Sun 6:00 PMBengals @ DolphinsBengals 27-16Read
Sun 6:00 PMBrowns @ JetsBrowns 20-17Read
Sun 6:00 PMTexans @ TitansTexans 19-16Read
Sun 6:00 PMColts @ SteelersSteelers 21-20Read
Sun 6:00 PMRaiders @ PatriotsRaiders 23-20You are here
Sun 6:00 PMVikings @ SaintsVikings 26-17Read
Sun 6:00 PMGiants @ CommandersGiants 24-17Read
Sun 9:05 PMBroncos @ ChargersBroncos 23-17Read
Sun 9:25 PMLions @ CardinalsLions 27-20Read
Sun 9:25 PM49ers @ SeahawksSeahawks 24-21Read
Mon 1:20 AMRavens @ FalconsRavens 26-20Read
Tue 1:15 AMBills @ RamsBills 27-23Read

Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.

Raiders vs Patriots FAQ

What time is Raiders vs Patriots in the UK?

6pm BST on Sunday 11 October at Gillette Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET.

Is Raiders vs Patriots free-to-air?

Yes. 5ACTION has it from 5:30pm, and it also streams on Channel 5 Sport on YouTube.

How can I watch Raiders vs Patriots in the UK?

Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the Sunday 6pm and 9pm windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.

Is A.J. Brown playing?

No. Brown is on injured reserve, as is Harold Landry III, who is on the PUP list.

18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change