Home » NFL News » Raiders vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds

Raiders vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots prediction, picks and odds for Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season

Kirk Cousins has eleven touchdown passes, level with Brock Purdy for the most in the NFL. Our Raiders vs Patriots prediction sends him to a stadium where the home team rates 71.9 through the air.

The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-1 and have scored 115 points. The New England Patriots are 2-2 and have scored 65. New England is also without A.J. Brown and Harold Landry III, both on reserve lists.

Squawka Signal · Model read

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots

Week 5 · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET. Our Signal model makes the New England Patriots favourites by about 8 points, a 76% win probability.

LVLas Vegas RaidersWin prob24%
NENew England PatriotsWin prob76%
Projected lineNew England Patriots -8

Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: bet365.

Week 5 · Editorial pick

Raiders vs Patriots: our editor’s props

Two editorial selections to sit with the live Signal read below.

Raiders AT Patriots

Our props

Player propKirk Cousins 2+ passing touchdownsEleven touchdown passes in four games, a share of the league lead, at a 99.5 team rating. New England has conceded nine scores and an 86.8 opponent rating.
★★★☆☆3/5 confidence
TotalOver 43.5 pointsLas Vegas gives up 5.17 a carry and lets opponents finish 76.9% of red-zone trips. New England can lean on the run even when nothing else works.
★★☆☆☆2/5 confidence

An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.

Raiders vs Patriots: 2026 form so far

A visiting offence that scores and a home one that does not. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defence has conceded.

Raiders attack against the Patriots defence

Per gameRaiders offencePatriots allow
Passing yards250.0189.8
Rushing yards93.0104.0
Yards per carry3.14.4
Passer rating99.586.8
Touchdowns3.02.2
Third-down conversion39.6%38.3%
Red-zone conversion53.3%58.3%
Sacks conceded / recorded1.22.0

Patriots attack against the Raiders defence

Per gamePatriots offenceRaiders allow
Passing yards213.8202.8
Rushing yards117.8134.5
Yards per carry3.95.2
Passer rating71.985.8
Touchdowns1.82.8
Third-down conversion34.6%40.4%
Red-zone conversion44.4%76.9%
Sacks conceded / recorded2.53.0

Figures are season to date, across 4 games.

Las Vegas has taken 23 penalties for 120 yards, a total only Indianapolis betters. On the road in a tight game, that discipline is worth more than it looks.

Raiders vs Patriots quarterback matchup

Las Vegas rates 99.5 through the air against New England’s 71.9, a 27.6-point gap between two team figures.

TeamQuarterbackLast gameSeason to date
RaidersKirk Cousins22/33, 248 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 119.3 rtg93/144, 1026 yds, 11 TD, 4 INT, 99.5 rtg (4 games)
PatriotsDrake Maye14/25, 199 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 48.6 rtg73/117, 854 yds, 4 TD, 7 INT, 71.0 rtg (4 games)
Tommy DeVito3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg (1 game)
Last game is Week 3. Season figures are 2026 to date, with games played in brackets.

Raiders vs Patriots injury report and team news

A.J. Brown is on injured reserve for New England, and Harold Landry III is on the physically unable to perform list.

Brock Bowers is the central target in a Las Vegas passing game with 1,000 yards and twelve touchdowns.

New England’s 71.9 passer rating is the third-lowest in the NFL, ahead of only the Chargers and Tampa Bay.

Injury report · Week 5Official game-status report — updates through the week
LVLas Vegas Raiders
No game-status designations filed yet.
Out long-term
Chigozie AnusiemCBIR
Keyron CrawfordDEIR
Justin PickettGIR
Brennan JacksonLBIR
Chris CollierRBIR
Carter RunyonTEIR
Corey RuckerWRIR
Dont’e Thornton Jr.WRIR
Jack BechWRIR
NENew England Patriots
No game-status designations filed yet.
Out long-term
Khalil JacobsLBIR
Quintayvious HutchinsLBIR
Greg Van RotenOLIR
Mike OnwenuOLIR
Bryce BaringerPIR
Myles MontgomeryRBIR
Dell PettusSAFIR
Marcus BryantTIR
Julian HillTEIR
A.J. BrownWRIR
Jeremiah WebbWRIR
Harold Landry IIILBPUP

Where Raiders vs Patriots turns

Las Vegas throws it well and stops nobody on the ground. Opponents average 5.17 yards a carry against it, a figure only Carolina has exceeded.

New England should be built to punish that. It runs for 471 yards at 3.92 a carry with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson sharing the load.

So the game is a race between Cousins scoring early and the Patriots keeping it on the ground. Las Vegas has conceded eleven touchdowns itself, so this is not a shutout waiting to happen.

Players to watch

  • Kirk Cousins (LV, QB): Eleven scores through the air, tied with Brock Purdy for the lead.
  • Brock Bowers (LV, TE): The first read in an attack with 1,000 yards and twelve touchdowns.
  • TreVeyon Henderson (NE, RB): Splits carries into a front giving up 5.17 a rush.
  • Hunter Henry (NE, TE): A steady outlet for an offence rating 71.9 passing.

How to watch Raiders vs Patriots

Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. CTV shows a Sunday afternoon game in each region, so check your local listings for this one, and RDS has the French-language call. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.

DetailRaiders vs Patriots
DateSunday, October 11, 2026
Kickoff1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT
VenueGillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
TVCTV (regional) / TSN / RDS (French)
Live streamDAZN (NFL Game Pass)
WeekWeek 5, 2026 NFL season

Raiders vs Patriots prediction and score projection

Our Raiders vs Patriots prediction is Las Vegas 23-20. The Raiders have the quarterback and the points; a soft run defence keeps New England close.

Signal’s projected margin and the live number update through the week.

Every Week 5 game, previewed

Kickoff (ET)GameOur predictionPreview
Thu 8:15 PMBuccaneers @ CowboysCowboys 27-20Read
Sun 9:30 AMEagles @ JaguarsJaguars 24-17Read
Sun 1:00 PMBears @ PackersBears 24-20Read
Sun 1:00 PMBengals @ DolphinsBengals 27-16Read
Sun 1:00 PMBrowns @ JetsBrowns 20-17Read
Sun 1:00 PMTexans @ TitansTexans 19-16Read
Sun 1:00 PMColts @ SteelersSteelers 21-20Read
Sun 1:00 PMRaiders @ PatriotsRaiders 23-20You are here
Sun 1:00 PMVikings @ SaintsVikings 26-17Read
Sun 1:00 PMGiants @ CommandersGiants 24-17Read
Sun 4:05 PMBroncos @ ChargersBroncos 23-17Read
Sun 4:25 PMLions @ CardinalsLions 27-20Read
Sun 4:25 PM49ers @ SeahawksSeahawks 24-21Read
Sun 8:20 PMRavens @ FalconsRavens 26-20Read
Mon 8:15 PMBills @ RamsBills 27-23Read

You can find the other games on our NFL hub, with Signal’s read on all of Week 5 alongside them. Both these teams are chasing the AFC Championship odds, and the NFC Championship odds move on the same page as the season develops.

Raiders vs Patriots FAQ

Who is favoured, the Raiders or the Patriots?

Las Vegas. The Raiders are 3-1 with a +31 differential; New England is 2-2 at -12.

What time is Raiders vs Patriots in Canada?

1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT, at Gillette Stadium.

Is A.J. Brown playing for New England?

No. Brown is on injured reserve, as is Harold Landry III, who is on the PUP list.

How many touchdown passes does Kirk Cousins have?

Eleven in four games, level with Brock Purdy for the most in the NFL.

19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change