Tampa Bay have run for 1,025 yards and Atlanta for 979, and Tampa Bay rate 73.6 through the air — the lowest figure in the NFL. Our Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction is a ground war by necessity.
The Atlanta Falcons are 3-4 and Michael Penix Jr. has nine touchdown passes to one interception. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-5 despite a positive point differential.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta FalconsSquawka46%Market45%▬ Fair
Tampa Bay BuccaneersSquawka54%Market55%▬ FairSquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.
Falcons vs Buccaneers: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Falcons vs Buccaneers: 2026 form so far
Two of the league’s three busiest ground games, in the same stadium. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.
Falcons attack against the Buccaneers defense
| Per game | Falcons offense | Buccaneers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 197.4 | 217.4 |
| Rushing yards | 139.9 | 77.3 |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Passer rating | 87.9 | 84.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Third-down conversion | 38.1% | 36.4% |
| Red-zone conversion | 66.7% | 52.6% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.1 | 2.3 |
Buccaneers attack against the Falcons defense
| Per game | Buccaneers offense | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 150.4 | 255.6 |
| Rushing yards | 146.4 | 88.9 |
| Yards per carry | 4.9 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 73.6 | 92.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 39.4% | 42.4% |
| Red-zone conversion | 52.2% | 66.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.1 | 2.4 |
Tampa Bay have conceded 22 sacks, joint second-most in the NFL, which is a large part of why they throw it as badly as they do.
Falcons vs Buccaneers quarterback matchup
Michael Penix Jr. has nine touchdown passes to one interception at 109.1. Tampa Bay rate 73.6 as a team, the lowest mark in the league.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 25/34, 213 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 118.9 rtg | 96/144, 1157 yds, 9 TD, 1 INT, 109.1 rtg (5 games) |
| Buccaneers | Baker Mayfield | 7/11, 64 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 109.7 rtg | 68/107, 679 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, 83.0 rtg (4 games) |
Falcons vs Buccaneers injury report and team news
Tampa Bay have run for 1,025 yards, second only to Chicago.
Atlanta have run for 979 yards at 4.75 a carry.
Tampa Bay rate 73.6 through the air, the lowest team passer rating in the NFL.
Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay BuccaneersTwo run games and one functioning quarterback
One thousand and twenty-five rushing yards for Tampa Bay, 979 for Atlanta. Only Chicago have more than either.
The difference is what happens when they have to throw. Penix has nine touchdown passes to one interception at 109.1; Tampa Bay rate 73.6 as a team, the lowest in football.
Tampa Bay’s defense keeps them in games — 3.58 a carry conceded, among the five best marks in the league — but 22 sacks given up at the other end is not a profile that wins many.
Players to watch
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL, QB): 1,157 passing yards, nine touchdowns and one interception.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): Fronts a ground game with 979 yards at 4.75 a carry.
- Bucky Irving (TB, RB): Leads the league’s second-busiest ground game.
- Baker Mayfield (TB, QB): Three touchdown passes at an 83.0 rating from four starts.
How to watch Falcons vs Buccaneers
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1 at Raymond James Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. FOX has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Falcons vs Buccaneers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, November 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| TV | FOX |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Fubo |
| Week | Week 8, 2026 NFL season |
Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction and score projection
Tampa Bay win 24-21. Atlanta have the better quarterback by a wide margin, but Tampa Bay have the better defense and the home field.
The live spread and our projected margin both update through the week.
Every Week 8 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Panthers @ Packers | Packers 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Cardinals @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Falcons @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers 24-21 | You are here |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Ravens @ Bills | Bills 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Browns @ Steelers | Steelers 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Colts @ Jaguars | Jaguars 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Raiders @ Jets | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Vikings @ Lions | Vikings 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Titans @ Bengals | Bengals 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 5:05 PM | Chargers @ Rams | Rams 26-16 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Chiefs @ Broncos | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Patriots @ Dolphins | Patriots 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:20 PM | Eagles @ Commanders | Eagles 20-17 | Read |
| Mon 9:15 PM | Bears @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
You can find our pick record alongside our NFL betting coverage. The outright markets are priced in NFC Championship odds. We price the player markets in NFL player props.
Falcons vs Buccaneers FAQ
Tampa Bay, narrowly. Our Signal model has the Buccaneers as slight favorites and the live number is in the Signal card on this page, despite their 2-5 record.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1 at Raymond James Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT.
Tampa Bay, with 1,025 rushing yards — second only to Chicago.
They rate 73.6 through the air, the lowest in the NFL, and have lost five games by a combined margin smaller than their two wins.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change