Our Falcons vs Steelers prediction favors Pittsburgh. Atlanta travels to Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, September 13, and FOX has the 1:00 PM ET kickoff. Both sides open the 2026 NFL season here. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, is in the block just below. Signal rates all 16 Week 1 games the same way.
Pittsburgh finished 10-7 and won the AFC North; Atlanta went 8-9 and missed out. However, the underlying numbers are closer than the standings suggest.
Atlanta recorded 57 sacks in 2025, more than any team playing this weekend. Meanwhile Pittsburgh conceded 31. Consequently the game may turn on how long Aaron Rodgers has to throw.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Atlanta FalconsSquawka35%Market36%▬ Fair
Pittsburgh SteelersSquawka65%Market64%▬ FairSquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly.
Falcons vs Steelers: our editor’s prop
One editorial call to sit alongside the live Signal numbers above.
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Falcons vs Steelers: 2025 season form
Pittsburgh finished 10-7 at plus 10. Atlanta went 8-9 at minus 48, although the Falcons closed the season on a four-game winning streak.
| 2025 regular season | Falcons | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-9 | 10-7 |
| Points for | 353 | 397 |
| Points against | 401 | 387 |
| Point differential | -48 | +10 |
| Sacks recorded | 57 | 48 |
| Sacks allowed | 26 | 31 |
| Interceptions made | 16 | 15 |
| Third-down offense | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Red-zone offense | 62.0% | 58.8% |
| Red zone allowed | 54.9% | 50.9% |
| Opponent passer rating | 88.4 | 92.2 |
The sack rows are the story. Atlanta recorded 57 and allowed only 26, both the better marks in this fixture. Pittsburgh, by contrast, generated 48 and conceded 31, and their 92.2 opponent passer rating was the weaker of the two.
Falcons vs Steelers injury report and team news
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags appear. For now, the quarterback picture is settled on one side only.
Atlanta has not confirmed a starter. Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Penix Jr. and Cooper Rush are all on the roster, and the competition was still open at the time of writing. Bijan Robinson leads the backfield regardless. Similarly, Drake London and Kyle Pitts Sr. remain the primary targets.
Aaron Rodgers starts for Pittsburgh. DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. lead a rebuilt receiving group, moreover, while Rico Dowdle joins Jaylen Warren in the backfield after arriving from Carolina.
Atlanta FalconsPittsburgh SteelersThe matchup that decides it: Atlanta’s pass rush against Pittsburgh’s protection
Atlanta recorded 57 sacks in 2025, ahead of every other team playing this weekend. James Pearce Jr. had 10 of them and Brandon Dorlus added eight.
Pittsburgh allowed 31 sacks across the season, which is respectable rather than secure. However, Rodgers threw for 3,322 yards at a 93.8 rating, so the offense works when it stays upright.
Atlanta’s own line was the better of the two, conceding just 26. Therefore the pressure battle tilts one way, and Pittsburgh’s answer has to be the run.
Players to watch
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): 1,478 rushing yards in 2025, indeed fourth in the league.
- Drake London (ATL, WR): 919 receiving yards; indeed, he is Atlanta’s most reliable target.
- James Pearce Jr. (ATL, DE): 10 sacks last season, notably for the slate’s most productive pass rush.
- Aaron Rodgers (PIT, QB): 3,322 yards at a 93.8 rating, notably the better passer rating in this fixture.
- DK Metcalf (PIT, WR): Notably now leads the Pittsburgh receivers alongside Michael Pittman Jr.
How to watch Falcons vs Steelers
The game kicks off at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 13 at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. FOX has the broadcast, meanwhile, with NFL+ carrying it on mobile. Because this is an early Sunday window, coverage is regional, so check your local listings.
| Detail | Falcons vs Steelers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 11:00 AM MT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| TV | FOX |
| Live stream | FOX / NFL+ |
| Week | Week 1, 2026 NFL season |
Falcons vs Steelers prediction and score projection
Our Falcons vs Steelers prediction is a narrow Pittsburgh win. Home field and the settled quarterback situation carry it, although not by much.
Atlanta’s pass rush is the best unit on the field. Indeed, 57 sacks against a line that allowed 31 is the kind of edge that decides close games. Nevertheless the Falcons still have to name a quarterback.
So we will take the Steelers to win, 24-20. Which side carries the value, though, is a separate question from who wins, and the live read on that sits in the Signal block.
Signal rates every game on our NFL picks page. Meanwhile the title race is priced through Super Bowl LXI odds, with both conferences on the NFC and AFC Championship pages. Finally, player markets sit with our NFL player props coverage, and kickoff is confirmed on NFL.com.
Falcons vs Steelers FAQ
Pittsburgh, narrowly. The Steelers finished 10-7 and won the AFC North while Atlanta went 8-9. Ultimately the live win probability and the current market price both sit in the Signal block on this page.
Spreads move all week; therefore both the live line and our model’s projected line sit in the Signal block rather than in this answer. As a guide to the gap: Pittsburgh finished 10-7 at plus 10, Atlanta 8-9 at minus 48.
FOX has the broadcast and NFL+ carries it on mobile. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, 2026 from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. Notably, coverage is regional in the early window.
Atlanta had not confirmed a starter at the time of writing. Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Penix Jr. and Cooper Rush are all on the roster.
Steelers 24-20. The Steelers have home field and a settled quarterback; Atlanta’s 57 sacks, however, were the most of any team playing this weekend.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change