Buffalo concede on 76.2% of opponent red-zone trips. Las Vegas concede on 77.8%. Our Bills vs Raiders prediction pairs two of the three worst red-zone defenses in football.
The Buffalo Bills lead the NFL with 164 points, level with Detroit, and have scored 20 touchdowns. The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-2 and have conceded 17 touchdowns, so this should not be quiet.
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
Buffalo BillsSquawka78%Market69%▲ Value
Las Vegas RaidersSquawka22%Market31%▼ Slight laySquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.
Bills vs Raiders: our editor’s props
Two editorial selections to sit with the live Signal read below.
AT Our props
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Bills vs Raiders: 2026 form so far
Two defenses that cannot finish a stop, and one offense scoring more than anyone. The table sets each attack against what the other has conceded.
Bills attack against the Raiders defense
| Per game | Bills offense | Raiders allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 238.2 | 236.4 |
| Rushing yards | 158.0 | 140.6 |
| Yards per carry | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Passer rating | 99.6 | 99.6 |
| Touchdowns | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| Third-down conversion | 50.0% | 42.2% |
| Red-zone conversion | 71.4% | 77.8% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.6 |
Raiders attack against the Bills defense
| Per game | Raiders offense | Bills allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 253.6 | 280.4 |
| Rushing yards | 82.0 | 108.2 |
| Yards per carry | 3.0 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 100.2 | 105.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| Third-down conversion | 39.4% | 42.6% |
| Red-zone conversion | 55.6% | 76.2% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.6 | 2.2 |
Figures are season to date, across 5 games.
Las Vegas concede 5.21 yards a carry, second-worst in the NFL, and Buffalo run for 5.37. That is the mismatch this game turns on.
Bills vs Raiders quarterback matchup
Las Vegas rate 100.2 through the air and Buffalo 99.6, which is the closest quarterback matchup on this week’s card.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | Josh Allen | 16/26, 204 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 54.0 rtg | 79/119, 1039 yds, 6 TD, 3 INT, 100.1 rtg (4 games) |
| Raiders | Kirk Cousins | 22/33, 248 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 119.3 rtg | 93/144, 1026 yds, 11 TD, 4 INT, 99.5 rtg (4 games) |
Bills vs Raiders injury report and team news
Buffalo have scored 164 points, level with Detroit for the most in the NFL.
James Cook III has 532 rushing yards, third in the league, and Buffalo have 13 rushing touchdowns.
Greg Rousseau has six sacks for Buffalo, second in the NFL behind Will Anderson Jr.
Buffalo BillsLas Vegas RaidersNeither of these defenses finishes a stop
Buffalo have scored 164 points and 20 touchdowns, 13 of them on the ground. James Cook III’s 532 rushing yards are third in the league and the team runs for 5.37 a carry.
Las Vegas concede 5.21 a carry, which is the second-worst figure in football, and 703 rushing yards have gone through that front in five games.
The Raiders can score too. Kirk Cousins has 12 touchdown passes, Brock Bowers has 312 receiving yards, and Buffalo concede on 76.2% of red-zone trips. Both totals should move.
Players to watch
- James Cook III (BUF, RB): 532 rushing yards, third in the NFL, at 5.37 a carry as a team.
- Greg Rousseau (BUF, OLB): Six sacks, second in the league.
- Brock Bowers (LV, TE): 312 receiving yards for an offense rating 100.2.
- Ashton Jeanty (LV, RB): 291 rushing yards against a defense conceding 3.92 a carry.
How to watch Bills vs Raiders
Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 18 at Allegiant Stadium, which is 3:25 PM CT and 1:25 PM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Bills vs Raiders |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 PM ET / 3:25 PM CT / 1:25 PM PT |
| Venue | Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 6, 2026 NFL season |
Bills vs Raiders prediction and score projection
Buffalo win 30-27. Both red-zone defenses leak and both offenses are capable, but the Bills have scored 32 more points than the Raiders.
The live spread and Signal’s projected margin update through the week.
Every Week 6 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Seahawks @ Broncos | Seahawks 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Texans @ Jaguars | Jaguars 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Ravens @ Browns | Ravens 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Panthers @ Eagles | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Falcons | Bears 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Saints @ Giants | Giants 26-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Patriots | Patriots 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Steelers @ Buccaneers | Steelers 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Colts | Colts 23-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Cardinals @ Rams | Rams 30-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Bills @ Raiders | Bills 30-27 | You are here |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Chiefs | Chiefs 31-13 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Cowboys @ Packers | Packers 27-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Commanders @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
The rest of the round sits in NFL predictions for the round and our NFL hub. The outright markets are priced in our Super Bowl board. For the player side of this game, see player prop betting.
Bills vs Raiders FAQ
Buffalo. The Bills are 4-1 at +23; Las Vegas are 3-2 at +3.
4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 18, at Allegiant Stadium.
Buffalo, with 164, level with Detroit across the league.
Buffalo concede 76.2% of red-zone trips and Las Vegas 77.8%, two of the three worst rates in the NFL.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change