Chicago have run for 866 yards and Atlanta for 834. They are the two most productive ground games in the NFL, and our Bears vs Falcons prediction puts them in the same building.
The Chicago Bears are 3-2 with a +23 point differential. The Atlanta Falcons are 2-3 despite scoring exactly as many points, 119 apiece, and Bijan Robinson leads the league with 580 rushing yards.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Chicago BearsSquawka56%Market62%▼ Slight lay
Atlanta FalconsSquawka44%Market38%▲ ValueSquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.
Bears vs Falcons: our editor’s props
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Bears vs Falcons: 2026 form so far
The two best ground games in the conference, against each other. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defense has conceded.
Bears attack against the Falcons defense
| Per game | Bears offense | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 219.2 | 248.4 |
| Rushing yards | 173.2 | 80.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 80.8 | 91.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 43.7% | 40.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 42.9% | 60.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Falcons attack against the Bears defense
| Per game | Falcons offense | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 195.0 | 215.4 |
| Rushing yards | 166.8 | 96.0 |
| Yards per carry | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Passer rating | 74.9 | 97.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 41.7% | 26.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 69.2% | 58.3% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.4 |
Figures are season to date, across 5 games.
Chicago allow 26.0% on third down, second only to Minnesota across the league. Atlanta’s 74.9 passer rating is the third-lowest, so the Falcons will run.
Bears vs Falcons quarterback matchup
Chicago rate 80.8 through the air and Atlanta 74.9. Both are well below the league average, which is why both lean so heavily on the run.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | Case Keenum | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg (1 game) |
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg | 33/45, 479 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 113.1 rtg (2 games) |
Bears vs Falcons injury report and team news
Bijan Robinson has 580 rushing yards, the most of any player in the NFL.
Chicago have run for 866 yards, more than any team in the league, with D’Andre Swift on 354 and Kyle Monangai on 324.
Atlanta’s quarterback room will be confirmed on Friday.
Chicago BearsAtlanta FalconsTwo run games, one field
Eight hundred and sixty-six rushing yards for Chicago, 834 for Atlanta. They are first and second in the NFL, and the Bears do it by committee while the Falcons do it through Bijan Robinson’s league-leading 580.
Neither throws it well. Chicago rate 80.8 and Atlanta 74.9, the third-lowest figure in football, so whichever defense holds up against the run decides this.
On that, Chicago have the edge. They concede 4.40 a carry against Atlanta’s 3.78, but the Bears’ 26.0% third-down defense is the number that actually wins games.
Players to watch
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): 580 rushing yards, the most of any player in the NFL.
- Drake London (ATL, WR): 488 receiving yards, fourth in the league.
- D’Andre Swift (CHI, RB): 354 rushing yards in the NFL’s most productive ground game.
- Rome Odunze (CHI, WR): A primary target in an offense rating 80.8 through the air.
How to watch Bears vs Falcons
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 18 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. FOX has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Bears vs Falcons |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| TV | FOX |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Fubo |
| Week | Week 6, 2026 NFL season |
Bears vs Falcons prediction and score projection
Chicago win 23-20. Both teams want the same game, and the Bears have the better defense for it.
The live spread and the model’s number for this one are worth checking again on Friday.
Every Week 6 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Seahawks @ Broncos | Seahawks 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Texans @ Jaguars | Jaguars 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Ravens @ Browns | Ravens 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Panthers @ Eagles | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Falcons | Bears 23-20 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Saints @ Giants | Giants 26-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Patriots | Patriots 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Steelers @ Buccaneers | Steelers 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Colts | Colts 23-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Cardinals @ Rams | Rams 30-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Bills @ Raiders | Bills 30-27 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Chiefs | Chiefs 31-13 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Cowboys @ Packers | Packers 27-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Commanders @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
The rest of the round sits in the full NFL picks page and the NFL homepage. The outright markets are priced in Super Bowl LXI odds. Individual lines are covered in NFL player props.
Bears vs Falcons FAQ
Chicago. Both have scored 119 points, but the Bears are +23 on differential against Atlanta’s -3.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 18, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Bijan Robinson, with 580 for Atlanta.
Chicago, with 866 rushing yards, just ahead of Atlanta on 834. They are first and second in the league.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change