Sixteen penalties in four games. Indianapolis are the most disciplined team in the NFL by a clear margin, and our Colts vs Steelers prediction asks whether that is worth more than Pittsburgh’s home field.
Both sides are 2-2 with negative point differentials — the Indianapolis Colts by two points, the Pittsburgh Steelers by ten. Indianapolis convert 75% of their red-zone trips despite a 73.9 passer rating, which is an unusual way to score 102 points.
Colts vs Steelers: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
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Our props
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Colts vs Steelers: 2026 form so far
Two 2-2 teams separated by eight points of differential. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defense has given up.
Colts attack against the Steelers defense
| Per game | Colts offense | Steelers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 174.8 | 209.5 |
| Rushing yards | 109.5 | 112.8 |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Passer rating | 73.9 | 92.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 37.7% | 34.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Steelers attack against the Colts defense
| Per game | Steelers offense | Colts allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 223.0 | 261.2 |
| Rushing yards | 94.8 | 131.0 |
| Yards per carry | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Passer rating | 80.6 | 98.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.0% | 29.2% |
| Red-zone conversion | 44.4% | 57.1% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.2 | 2.2 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Indianapolis have taken 16 penalties for 105 yards, the fewest of any team in the NFL. In a game this evenly matched, free yardage is the kind of edge that decides it.
Colts vs Steelers quarterback matchup
Pittsburgh rate 80.6 through the air against Indianapolis’s 73.9, and both lines have struggled: the Steelers have conceded 13 sacks, the Colts eight.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | Daniel Jones | 24/36, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 82.5 rtg | 84/132, 754 yds, 3 TD, 4 INT, 73.9 rtg (4 games) |
| Steelers | Aaron Rodgers | 19/34, 292 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 101.6 rtg | 88/153, 999 yds, 7 TD, 4 INT, 81.6 rtg (4 games) |
Colts vs Steelers injury report and team news
Alec Pierce is on injured reserve for Indianapolis, so the Colts remain without the receiver who made 1,003 yards last season.
T.J. Watt has four sacks for Pittsburgh, joint third in the league.
Jaylen Warren has 309 rushing yards at 4.41 a carry, the most productive part of the Pittsburgh offense.
Discipline against home field
Indianapolis do the small things well. Sixteen penalties for 105 yards is the lowest count in football, they convert 75% in the red zone, and they hold opponents to 29.2% on third down. None of that is glamorous and all of it travels.
What they cannot do is throw. A 73.9 passer rating is among the lowest in the league, and 699 passing yards in four games means Jonathan Taylor carries the offense. His 353 rushing yards are joint fifth in the NFL.
Pittsburgh’s problem is protection. Thirteen sacks conceded is second only to Tampa Bay, and against a Colts front with nine of their own that is the pressure point. Aaron Rodgers has seven touchdown passes, but he has not had much time to throw them.
Players to watch
- Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB): 353 rushing yards, joint fifth in the NFL, against a defense conceding 4.34 a carry.
- Tyler Warren (IND, TE): A central target in a passing game that has produced 699 yards.
- Jaylen Warren (PIT, RB): 309 rushing yards at 4.41 a carry for Pittsburgh.
- DK Metcalf (PIT, WR): The downfield threat in an offense rating 80.6 through the air.
How to watch Colts vs Steelers
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Acrisure Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Colts vs Steelers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Colts vs Steelers prediction and score projection
Pittsburgh win 21-20. Home field decides a game this close, though Indianapolis’s discipline makes it the sort of afternoon where one flag swings it.
Our projected margin for this game moves alongside the live market price.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
You can find our pick record alongside our NFL hub. The outright markets are priced in the AFC board. We price the player markets in prop markets for this game.
Colts vs Steelers FAQ
Pittsburgh, at home, in a game between two 2-2 teams. The Steelers are -10 on differential, the Colts -2.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, at Acrisure Stadium.
Indianapolis, with 16 for 105 yards in four games, the lowest count in the NFL.
Thirteen, second-most in the league behind Tampa Bay.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change