Cleveland are 3-1 and have been outscored by 14 points. No other team in the league has that combination, and our Browns vs Jets prediction asks how long it holds.
Three one-score wins will do that. The Cleveland Browns have taken 43 penalties, more than anyone else in the NFL, and still sit second in the AFC North. The New York Jets are 1-3 with a differential of -8. They have been the better-balanced side and have nothing to show for it.
Browns vs Jets: our editor’s props
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Browns vs Jets: 2026 form so far
Two teams whose records disagree with their point differentials. The table puts each attack against what the other defense has given up.
Browns attack against the Jets defense
| Per game | Browns offense | Jets allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 198.8 | 193.2 |
| Rushing yards | 93.8 | 123.5 |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Passer rating | 101.0 | 94.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.6% | 37.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 52.9% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.8 | 2.2 |
Jets attack against the Browns defense
| Per game | Jets offense | Browns allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 202.0 | 235.2 |
| Rushing yards | 84.0 | 113.2 |
| Yards per carry | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| Passer rating | 109.0 | 90.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.0% | 37.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 54.5% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Forty-three penalties for 297 yards is a league high, and it is the single clearest reason Cleveland’s margin of victory keeps shrinking to one score.
Browns vs Jets quarterback matchup
New York’s passing game rates 109.0 to Cleveland’s 101.0, which is the opposite of what a 3-1 against 1-3 record suggests.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | Deshaun Watson | 16/30, 144 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 88.8 rtg | 80/115, 855 yds, 6 TD, 2 INT, 101.2 rtg (4 games) |
| Jets | Geno Smith | 31/37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 129.8 rtg | 85/117, 902 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT, 109.0 rtg (4 games) |
Browns vs Jets injury report and team news
Dillon Gabriel is on injured reserve, leaving Cleveland’s quarterback room to Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders.
Denzel Boston has 284 receiving yards as a rookie, more than any other Cleveland receiver.
New York’s run game has produced 336 yards at 3.39 a carry, the weakest ground output in this matchup.
Why Browns vs Jets is closer than the records
Point differential is the honest number this early, and it says these teams are near identical: Cleveland -14, New York -8. The Browns have simply won the close ones, taking Pittsburgh 27-24 on a Thursday and grinding out two more by a score.
Discipline is the thing that should worry Cleveland. Forty-three penalties in four games is the most in the league, and against a Jets side that has been in every game it has played, those free first downs matter more than they did against weaker opposition.
Neither offense sustains drives. Both convert under a third of their third downs, which tends to produce field position battles and a low total. Whoever wins the turnover count probably wins the game.
Players to watch
- Denzel Boston (CLE, WR): 284 receiving yards, the most by any Cleveland receiver this season.
- Quinshon Judkins (CLE, RB): Leads a Cleveland ground game averaging 3.68 a carry.
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ, WR): 270 receiving yards against a defense conceding a 90.5 rating.
- Braelon Allen (NYJ, RB): Carries the load in a run game averaging 3.39 a carry.
How to watch Browns vs Jets
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at MetLife Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Browns vs Jets |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Browns vs Jets prediction and score projection
Cleveland win 20-17, which is the scoreline they have been producing all season. The penalty count makes this the least settled call on the card.
Signal’s win probability and projected margin for this one update as team news lands.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
Our weekly NFL picks and our NFL betting coverage carry the rest of the card. The outright markets are priced in the AFC board. Individual lines are covered in prop markets for this game.
Browns vs Jets FAQ
Cleveland, narrowly. The Browns are 3-1, though their -14 point differential is worse than New York’s -8.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, at MetLife Stadium.
Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders. Dillon Gabriel is on injured reserve.
Cleveland, by a clear margin: 43 for 297 yards in four games, the highest count in the NFL.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change