Bengals vs Dolphins Prediction, Picks & Odds

Four touchdowns. That is Miami’s entire output through four games, fewest in the NFL, and our Bengals vs Dolphins prediction is shaped almost entirely by that one number.

The Miami Dolphins are 0-4 with a point differential of -55, the worst in the league. The Cincinnati Bengals arrive 2-2, having beaten Pittsburgh and lost a tight one to Jacksonville, with a passing game that has produced 1,110 yards.

Week 5 · Editorial pick

Bengals vs Dolphins: our editor’s props

Two calls from our editor, to read next to Signal’s live numbers.

AT

Our props

TotalUnder 44.5 pointsMiami have scored 46 points in four games and convert 33.3% of red-zone trips, the lowest rate in the NFL. Cincinnati’s defense allows a 30.8% red-zone conversion, behind only Minnesota and Jacksonville.

★★★☆☆3/5 confidence

Player propTee Higgins 70+ receiving yardsHiggins has 401 receiving yards from 25 catches. Miami concede a 110.9 opponent passer rating, the third-highest figure in the league.

★★★☆☆3/5 confidence

An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Bengals vs Dolphins: 2026 form so far

One of these offenses has scored 97 points and the other 46. The table sets each attack against what the opposing defense has actually allowed.

Bengals attack against the Dolphins defense

Dolphins attack against the Bengals defense

Figures are season to date, across 4 games.

Miami’s 73.0 passer rating and 33.3% red-zone conversion are both near the bottom of the league. The defense has been the lesser problem, which is saying something given it has conceded eleven touchdowns.

Bengals vs Dolphins quarterback matchup

Joe Burrow has seven touchdown passes at a 99.5 team rating. Miami’s passing game sits at 73.0, and the Dolphins have managed four touchdowns in total.

Bengals vs Dolphins injury report and team news

De’Von Achane is on injured reserve, so Miami are without the back who carried their offense last season. Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright have taken the carries since.

Cincinnati have recorded 14 sacks, level with Houston and behind only Minnesota and Detroit.

Miami’s quarterback room has Kyle McCord and Malik Willis, with the starter to be confirmed on Friday.

What is left of the Miami offense

Forty-six points in four games works out at 11.5 a game. Miami have not merely been poor in the red zone, they have struggled to reach it: a 33.3% conversion rate on the trips they do earn is the lowest in football.

Cincinnati’s defense is well set up to keep it that way. Fourteen sacks is level with Houston, and only Minnesota and Jacksonville better a 30.8% red-zone rate against. Against an offense this limited, that combination usually produces a comfortable afternoon.

The one route back for Miami is on the ground. They average 4.33 a carry, better than Cincinnati’s own 3.58, and the Bengals concede 4.52. A run-heavy game plan keeps the clock moving and the score low, which is the only version of this that stays close.

Players to watch

• Tee Higgins (CIN, WR): 401 receiving yards from 25 catches, fourth in the NFL.
• Chase Brown (CIN, RB): 207 rushing yards behind a passing game that has thrown for 1,110.
• Ollie Gordon II (MIA, RB): Carries Miami’s most productive phase, a run game averaging 4.33.
• Malik Washington (MIA, WR): A target in an offense that has thrown for 654 yards all season.

How to watch Bengals vs Dolphins

Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Hard Rock Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.

Bengals vs Dolphins prediction and score projection

Cincinnati win 27-16. Miami’s four touchdowns in four games set a ceiling this defense will not need to work hard to enforce.

Signal’s current read on the spread and total is live, and it moves with the news.

Every Week 5 game, previewed

NFL predictions for the round and the NFL homepage carry the rest of the card. The outright markets are priced in who wins the AFC. Individual lines are covered in player prop betting.

Bengals vs Dolphins FAQ

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change