Vikings vs Saints Prediction, Picks & Odds

Minnesota have allowed 51 points, four touchdowns and an 18.2% red-zone conversion rate. All three are the best marks in the NFL, and our Vikings vs Saints prediction puts that defense in the loudest building it will visit.

The New Orleans Saints are 1-3 and have conceded 128 points, more than any other team. They can score — 105 points and a 50% third-down rate say so — but they have been giving it straight back. The Minnesota Vikings arrive unbeaten, and the Saints are without Travis Etienne Jr., who is on injured reserve.

Week 5 · Editorial pick

Vikings vs Saints: our editor’s props

Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.

AT

Our props

TotalUnder 42.5 pointsMinnesota concede 22.6% on third down and 18.2% in the red zone, both the best rates in the league, and have 16 sacks. New Orleans have conceded 16 touchdowns, so points will be hard to come by at one end and the clock will run at the other.

★★★★☆4/5 confidence

Player propChris Olave 70+ receiving yardsOlave has 491 receiving yards, second in the NFL, from 35 catches. Minnesota are the hardest defense in the league to score on, but the yardage is there even when the points are not.

★★☆☆☆2/5 confidence

An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Vikings vs Saints: 2026 form so far

The best defense in football against an offense that moves the ball and then concedes. The table puts each attack against what the opposite side has allowed.

Vikings attack against the Saints defense

Saints attack against the Vikings defense

Figures are season to date, across 4 games.

Four touchdowns conceded in four games. That is Minnesota’s record, and the next best in the league is Jacksonville on five. A 67.6 opponent passer rating completes the picture.

Vikings vs Saints quarterback matchup

New Orleans rate 95.7 through the air to Minnesota’s 85.0, which is the rare case of an unbeaten side arriving as the lesser passing team.

Vikings vs Saints injury report and team news

Travis Etienne Jr. is on injured reserve for New Orleans, taking out the back who ran for 1,107 yards last season.

Minnesota have recorded 16 sacks, the most in the NFL, with Dallas Turner on five of them.

Tyler Shough has nine touchdown passes for the Saints, a share of third-most in the league.

Can anyone score on Minnesota

Fifty-one points in four games. Minnesota’s defense has conceded four touchdowns, allows opponents a 67.6 passer rating, and stops 81.8% of red-zone trips short of the end zone. No other team in the league is close on any of those three.

New Orleans will test it differently to most. The Saints convert 50% on third down and 80% in the red zone, which are genuinely good numbers, and Chris Olave’s 491 receiving yards rank second in the NFL. This is not a bad offense.

It is the other side of the ball that has cost them. Sixteen touchdowns conceded, 128 points, and 5.05 yards a carry allowed. Minnesota do not need much — 86 points in four games is modest — but against this defense they will not need much.

Players to watch

• Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN, RB): 297 rushing yards against a defense conceding 5.05 a carry.
• T.J. Hockenson (MIN, TE): A central target for an offense that has thrown for 624 yards.
• Chris Olave (NO, WR): 491 receiving yards, second in the NFL, from 35 receptions.
• Alvin Kamara (NO, RB): Leads the New Orleans ground game with Etienne unavailable.

How to watch Vikings vs Saints

Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at the Caesars Superdome, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. FOX has the regional broadcast.

Vikings vs Saints prediction and score projection

Minnesota win 26-17. The Saints will move the ball and will still find the end zone hard to reach, and the Vikings only need to be ordinary at the other end.

Signal tracks the live probability for this game from now until kickoff.

Every Week 5 game, previewed

The full NFL picks page and our wider NFL analysis carry the rest of the card. The outright markets are priced in NFC Championship odds. Individual lines are covered in NFL player props.

Vikings vs Saints FAQ

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change