Raiders vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds

Kirk Cousins has eleven touchdown passes, level with Brock Purdy for the most in the NFL. Our Raiders vs Patriots prediction sends him to a stadium where the home side rates 71.9 through the air.

The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-1 and have scored 115 points. The New England Patriots are 2-2 and have scored 65. New England are also without A.J. Brown and Harold Landry III, both on reserve lists, which thins a roster already short of finishers.

Week 5 · Editorial pick

Raiders vs Patriots: our editor’s props

Two editorial selections to sit with the live Signal read below.

AT

Our props

Player propKirk Cousins 2+ passing touchdownsCousins has eleven in four games, a share of the league lead, at a 99.5 team rating. New England have conceded nine touchdowns and an 86.8 opponent rating.

★★★☆☆3/5 confidence

TotalOver 43.5 pointsLas Vegas concede 5.17 yards a carry and allow opponents to convert 76.9% of red-zone trips, the fourth-worst rate in the league. New England can run even when they cannot throw.

★★☆☆☆2/5 confidence

An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Raiders vs Patriots: 2026 form so far

A visiting offense that scores and a home one that does not. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defense has conceded rather than against each other.

Raiders attack against the Patriots defense

Patriots attack against the Raiders defense

Figures are season to date, across 4 games.

Las Vegas have taken 23 penalties for 120 yards, a total only Indianapolis better. On the road in a tight game, that discipline is worth more than it looks.

Raiders vs Patriots quarterback matchup

Las Vegas’s passing game rates 99.5 against New England’s 71.9. Those are team figures, which include every attempt rather than just the starter’s.

Raiders vs Patriots injury report and team news

A.J. Brown is on injured reserve for New England, which costs the Patriots the receiver who made 1,003 yards last season. Harold Landry III is on the physically unable to perform list.

Brock Bowers remains the most reliable target in the Las Vegas passing game, which has produced 1,000 yards and twelve touchdowns.

New England’s 71.9 passer rating is the third-lowest in the NFL, ahead of only the Chargers and Tampa Bay.

Where Raiders vs Patriots turns

Las Vegas throw it well and stop nobody on the ground. Opponents average 5.17 yards a carry against them, a figure only Carolina have exceeded, and 538 rushing yards have gone through that front in four games.

New England should be built to punish that. They run for 471 yards at 3.92 a carry and they have Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson to share it. The problem is what happens when they fall behind, because a 71.9 passer rating is not a comeback tool.

So the game is a race between Cousins scoring early and the Patriots keeping it on the ground. Las Vegas have conceded eleven touchdowns themselves, so this is not a shutout waiting to happen — it is a question of whether New England can stay within one score.

Players to watch

• Kirk Cousins (LV, QB): Eleven touchdown passes, level with Brock Purdy for the NFL lead.
• Brock Bowers (LV, TE): The central target in a passing game with 1,000 yards and twelve scores.
• TreVeyon Henderson (NE, RB): Shares a backfield averaging 3.92 a carry against a defense conceding 5.17.
• Hunter Henry (NE, TE): A dependable target for an offense rating 71.9 through the air.

How to watch Raiders vs Patriots

Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Gillette Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.

Raiders vs Patriots prediction and score projection

Las Vegas win 23-20. The Raiders have the quarterback and the points, but a run defense this soft keeps New England in it longer than the records suggest.

The live number for this game and our own projection update through the week.

Every Week 5 game, previewed

The rest of the round sits in the full NFL picks page and our NFL betting coverage. The outright markets are priced in our Super Bowl board. Individual lines are covered in player prop betting.

Raiders vs Patriots FAQ

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change