Belgium host Italy at the King Baudouin Stadium on Sunday 15 November, a 7.45pm kick-off (UK time) in the Nations League, with a quarter-final place on the line for the Red Devils in a straight shootout for a last-eight spot.
Italy sit top on 10 points, level with France but ahead on head-to-head, while Belgium are a point back in third on nine after a dramatic penultimate round. With France expected to see off bottom side Turkey, Belgium know only a win will do to pip the Azzurri to the last-eight spot, while a draw would be enough for Roberto Mancini‘s side. We have worked through the Belgium vs Italy odds for our best bets, two premium picks and a score prediction below.
Premium Tips
Anthony Eadson expects Belgium to throw everything at a must-win night in Brussels, and with their key men firing we just favour the hosts to edge an open, goal-filled contest.
| Premium Tip | Odds | Why we’re backing it |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium to win | 6/5 (bet365) | Belgium simply have to win to reach the quarter-finals, and in front of their own supporters they have the quality to do it. Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere were both on the scoresheet in Thursday’s win in Turkey, Jeremy Doku is back from a calf problem to add more firepower, and Van Bommel’s side will go after this from the first whistle. At 6/5, backing a motivated Belgium to get the win they need looks the solid play. |
| Kevin De Bruyne to score anytime | 11/4 (bet365) | De Bruyne rolled back the years with a double against Turkey last month and was on target again in Thursday’s win, and he remains Belgium’s go-to man from open play and from set-pieces and penalties alike. On a night when the hosts simply have to force the issue to reach the quarter-finals, their captain is as likely as anyone in red to get on the scoresheet, and he will be central to everything good Belgium produce. At 11/4, De Bruyne to score anytime is a tempting way to back Belgium’s talisman to deliver when it matters most. |
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware — gambleaware.org · Odds correct at time of publishing.
How Belgium go into the game
Belgium head into the final round third in Group A1 on nine points, a point behind both Italy and France, and knowing a win would send them through to the quarter-finals at Italy’s expense. Mark van Bommel‘s side have been up and down in the group, but they beat Italy 2-0 in Rome in the opening round and come into this one on the back of a 2-1 win away in Turkey on Thursday.
The attacking options are there. Kevin De Bruyne has rediscovered his best, scoring three goals across his last two appearances, Charles De Ketelaere found the net in Turkey, and Jeremy Doku returns to the squad after shaking off a calf injury. Romelu Lukaku is also in Van Bommel’s party, giving the hosts plenty to work with up front as they chase the result they need on home soil.
How Italy go into the game
Italy arrive in Brussels top of Group A1 on 10 points, level with France but ahead on head-to-head and needing only a draw to secure a quarter-final place. Roberto Mancini’s side have been rebuilding impressively since his return, and they delivered a statement on Thursday, beating group leaders France 3-1 at the San Siro.
That win was built on the form of Francesco Pio Esposito, who struck twice against France to continue a rich vein of scoring, with Davide Frattesi also on the mark. The Azzurri will take real confidence from that statement win over France, and knowing a point is enough to reach the quarter-finals, they can afford to play with a measure of control.
Belgium vs Italy head-to-head
There is little between these two over the years, and the recent meetings have been tight. Belgium hold the upper hand from this campaign, having won 2-0 in Rome back in September to hand Van Bommel a winning start, but Italy will point to their own recent record against the Red Devils, including the 2-1 win in the Euro 2020 quarter-final in Munich and another 2-1 success in the 2021 Nations League third-place play-off. With the rivalry so evenly poised, we have kept this to prose rather than quote a disputed all-time tally.
Belgium vs Italy predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium to win | 6/5 (bet365) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Belgium must win to go through and have the quality at home to do it, with De Bruyne and De Ketelaere firing. |
| Both teams to score – Yes | 4/7 (bet365) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Both sides scored freely in the last round and Belgium’s need to attack should open the game up. |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/6 (William Hill) | ⭐⭐ | A must-win night for the hosts against an Italy side happy to trade points to a draw points to goals. |
| Belgium 2-1 Italy | 8/1 (bet365) | ⭐⭐ | A narrow home win fits a chasing Belgium edging a dangerous but draw-content Italy. |
Belgium vs Italy score prediction
This is as close to a knockout tie as a group game gets, and the equation is simple: Belgium must win, Italy need only a draw. The Red Devils have the firepower to do it on home soil, with De Bruyne in excellent form and Doku back to stretch defences, and we expect them to take the game to an Italy side that beat France on Thursday but may be tempted to sit on a point. The Azzurri carry a threat of their own through Pio Esposito, so a goal at either end looks likely in a tense Brussels night that just tips the hosts’ way. Score prediction: Belgium 2-1 Italy.
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