The Championship returns on Friday 14th August, when Wolverhampton Wanderers host Blackburn Rovers at Molineux. We have crunched the numbers across all 24 clubs to project the final table before a ball is kicked. Our model blends betting market prices, last season’s results and summer transfer business into one strength score per club.
How the Squawka projection works
The model builds a blended score for every club, then ranks the division from one to 24. Market strength counts for 50%, taken from bet365’s outright title odds. Form counts for 30%, based on each club’s 2025/26 points. Net recorded transfer spend counts for 20%, covering fee-known deals announced since 1st June.
Form scores use on-pitch points only, so deductions are excluded. Clubs relegated from the Premier League carry an uplift. Promoted clubs carry a downgrade. Both adjustments follow a fixed formula. This is a Squawka projection, not a certainty. Treat it as a data-led starting point for the season.
The predicted table
| Pos | Club | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | Automatic promotion |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | Automatic promotion |
| 3 | Southampton | Play-offs |
| 4 | Wolves | Play-offs |
| 5 | Millwall | Play-offs |
| 6 | Burnley | Play-offs |
| 7 | Wrexham | |
| 8 | Birmingham City | |
| 9 | Norwich City | |
| 10 | Derby County | |
| 11 | Sheffield United | |
| 12 | Bristol City | |
| 13 | Stoke City | |
| 14 | Swansea City | |
| 15 | West Bromwich Albion | |
| 16 | Queens Park Rangers | |
| 17 | Watford | |
| 18 | Preston North End | |
| 19 | Cardiff City | |
| 20 | Blackburn Rovers | |
| 21 | Portsmouth | |
| 22 | Lincoln City | Relegation |
| 23 | Charlton Athletic | Relegation |
| 24 | Bolton Wanderers | Relegation |
The title race
West Ham United top the projection, and the market strongly agrees. Bookmakers price the Hammers at 7/4, the shortest odds in the division by some distance. Their summer has been defined by sales rather than signings. Crysencio Summerville joined Al Hilal for 64.5m euros, while Mateus Fernandes moved to Tottenham Hotspur for 99m euros. Yet the squad that remains still outguns this level, and relegated clubs with 39-point Premier League seasons usually challenge immediately.
Middlesbrough take the second automatic spot. Boro racked up 80 points last season and fell short in the play-offs. They have recruited with intent since, adding Will Lankshear, Kyle Joseph, Jeremy Sarmiento and Sebastian Berhalter. Hayden Hackney’s sale to Everton funds that rebuild, and the model rates their blend of form and momentum as promotion-ready.
The play-off picture
Southampton and Wolves fill the next two places. The Saints posted 80 points of their own last season and have added Lewis Dobbin, Cyle Larin and Daniel Peretz. Wolves arrive with the division’s second-shortest price at 11/2, despite winning just three Premier League games. Joao Gomes has departed, but Ladislav Krejci, Kieran Trippier and Raul Jimenez give the squad genuine Championship pedigree.
Millwall are the value story. The Lions earned 83 points last season, more than any club returning to this division, yet the market prices them at 28/1. Our form leg drags them firmly into the top six. Burnley complete the play-off places, though their summer has followed the familiar relegation pattern. Maxime Esteve, Jaidon Anthony and Luca Koleosho have all been sold, with Florentino Luis the marquee arrival.
The relegation scrap
All three promoted clubs project into the bottom three. That reflects the market rather than any single weakness. Lincoln City stormed League One with 103 points, yet bookmakers give the Imps almost no chance at 150/1. They open at Middlesbrough on the first Saturday, a fixture that will test the projection immediately. Charlton Athletic survived on 53 points last season and have recruited mostly on free transfers. Bolton Wanderers, promoted through the play-offs with 75 points, prop up the table.
Portsmouth and Blackburn sit just above the drop zone. Both finished last season in the bottom half, and neither has spent significantly this summer.
One to watch
Stoke City rank 13th despite the division’s second-highest recorded net spend, above 20m euros. Ethan Galbraith, Milan Smit and Djibril Soumare headline an aggressive rebuild. The market remains unconvinced at 33/1, and a 55-point season weighs on the form leg. If the new signings click quickly, the Potters are the most likely club to beat this projection.
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