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Squawka / News / Atletico vs Real Madrid predictions and betting tips: Mbappe to fire derby win

Atletico vs Real Madrid predictions and betting tips: Mbappe to fire derby win

20 Sep · 15:15 Estadio Wanda Metropolitano · Primera División
10
Goals
8
8
Goals Conceded
10
16
Yellow Cards
11
22
Corners Won
28
59
Shots
69
73
Tackles Won
54
Real Madrid Real Madrid
3 - 2
Atlético Madrid Atlético Madrid
Primera División · 22 Mar 2026
Atlético Madrid Atlético Madrid
5 - 2
Real Madrid Real Madrid
Primera División · 27 Sep 2025
Atlético Madrid Atlético Madrid
1 - 0
Real Madrid Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League · 12 Mar 2025
Real Madrid Real Madrid
2 - 1
Atlético Madrid Atlético Madrid
UEFA Champions League · 04 Mar 2025
Real Madrid Real Madrid
1 - 1
Atlético Madrid Atlético Madrid
Primera División · 08 Feb 2025
Goals
  • 1
    Real Madrid
    Kylian Mbappé
    7
  • 2
    Atlético Madrid
    Álex Baena
    4
  • 3
    Real Madrid
    Jude Bellingham
    3
  • 4
    Atlético Madrid
    Giuliano Simeone
    2
  • 5
    Atlético Madrid
    Lee Kang-In
    2
Shots
  • 1
    Real Madrid
    Kylian Mbappé
    40
  • 2
    Real Madrid
    Vinícius Júnior
    20
  • 3
    Atlético Madrid
    Lee Kang-In
    18
  • 4
    Real Madrid
    Jude Bellingham
    16
  • 5
    Atlético Madrid
    Álex Baena
    14
Tackles Won
  • 1
    Atlético Madrid
    Alejandro Grimaldo
    8
  • 2
    Atlético Madrid
    Koke
    8
  • 3
    Real Madrid
    Federico Valverde
    7
  • 4
    Atlético Madrid
    Giuliano Simeone
    7
  • 5
    Atlético Madrid
    Lee Kang-In
    7
Assists
  • 1
    Real Madrid
    Vinícius Júnior
    3
  • 2
    Atlético Madrid
    Dávid Hancko
    2
  • 3
    Real Madrid
    Arda Güler
    2
  • 4
    Real Madrid
    Kylian Mbappé
    2
  • 5
    Real Madrid
    Jude Bellingham
    2
Chances Created
  • 1
    Real Madrid
    Arda Güler
    27
  • 2
    Atlético Madrid
    Álex Baena
    14
  • 3
    Real Madrid
    Vinícius Júnior
    13
  • 4
    Real Madrid
    Jude Bellingham
    13
  • 5
    Real Madrid
    Kylian Mbappé
    11
Passes Completed
  • 1
    Atlético Madrid
    Dávid Hancko
    332
  • 2
    Real Madrid
    Dean Huijsen
    327
  • 3
    Real Madrid
    Federico Valverde
    295
  • 4
    Real Madrid
    Ibrahima Konaté
    288
  • 5
    Atlético Madrid
    Marcos Llorente
    247
Take Ons Completed
  • 1
    Real Madrid
    Kylian Mbappé
    21
  • 2
    Real Madrid
    Jude Bellingham
    16
  • 3
    Real Madrid
    Yan Diomande
    14
  • 4
    Atlético Madrid
    Lee Kang-In
    11
  • 5
    Real Madrid
    Vinícius Júnior
    11
Interceptions
  • 1
    Atlético Madrid
    Dávid Hancko
    9
  • 2
    Atlético Madrid
    Morten Hjulmand
    8
  • 3
    Atlético Madrid
    Álex Baena
    8
  • 4
    Real Madrid
    Dean Huijsen
    8
  • 5
    Real Madrid
    Trent Alexander-Arnold
    7
Atlético Madrid Atlético Madrid
  • Julián Alvarez Attacker · Muscle Injury · 2 | Out (0%)
  • Pablo Barrios Midfielder · Calf Injury · 2 | Out (0%)
  • Alexander Sørloth Attacker · Muscle Injury · 2 | Out (0%)
Real Madrid Real Madrid
  • Ferland Mendy Defender · Thigh Injury
  • Éder Militão Defender · Hamstring · 2 | Out (0%)
  • Rodrygo Attacker · ACL Knee Injury

No price boosts for this event.

Bet Builder is not available yet.

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13
Oblak
22
Grimaldo
17
Hancko
18
Pubill
14
Llorente
11
Lookman
23
Hjulmand
06
Koke
20
Simeone
10
Baena
07
Kang-In
10
Mbappé
07
Júnior
05
Bellingham
15
Güler
20
Silva
08
Valverde
17
Cucurella
04
Huijsen
16
Konaté
24
Dumfries
01
Courtois

League Standings table is not available yet.

The Madrid derby takes centre stage on Sunday, with Real Madrid sitting second and Atletico just behind them in a La Liga top-four scrap. Atletico have won their last two in style, but Real arrive as favourites with Kylian Mbappe in sensational scoring form, already seven goals to his name.

Anthony Eadson’s Atletico vs Real Madrid predictions, best bets and score prediction are below.

Premium Tips

Anthony Eadson just favours Real Madrid in the derby.

Premium TipOddsWhy we’re backing it
Real Madrid to win20/21 (Unibet)Real Madrid have made a strong start, winning five of their six games and boasting the division’s deadliest weapon in Kylian Mbappe, who already has seven goals. Atletico have found form with back-to-back wins, but Real have the greater firepower and the man in the sensational scoring streak. Derbies are always tight and tense, but at just under evens the champions-elect look the value to edge a fiercely contested Metropolitano occasion and move to within touching distance of Barcelona at the top.
Alex Baena to score anytime10/3 (bet365)Atletico will carry a threat of their own in front of their own fans, and Alex Baena has been their standout attacker with four goals already this season. He arrives from midfield, strikes well from distance and takes a share of the set pieces, exactly the profile to punish a Real Madrid defence that has looked vulnerable at times. In a derby that should have goals at both ends, 10/3 for Baena to find the net against his city rivals looks a genuine value pick.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware — gambleaware.org · Odds correct at time of publishing.

How Atletico Madrid go into the game

Atletico have hit form with back-to-back wins, thrashing Real Sociedad 3-0 and Osasuna 4-0. Alex Baena has been superb with four goals from midfield.

Dangerous and in form, Atletico will fancy their chances of upsetting their rivals in front of a raucous Metropolitano.

How Real Madrid go into the game

Real Madrid have won five of six, most recently edging Elche 3-2, with Kylian Mbappe in stunning form on seven goals already. Only a defeat at Betis has blotted their record.

Ruthless through Mbappe and full of attacking quality, Real arrive as favourites but know a derby is never straightforward.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: 2025-26 by the numbers

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid head-to-head

DateHomeScoreAway
22/03/26Real Madrid3-2Atletico
27/09/25Atletico5-2Real Madrid
12/03/25Atletico1-0Real Madrid
04/03/25Real Madrid2-1Atletico
08/02/25Real Madrid1-1Atletico

A tight derby of late, with Atletico and Real Madrid winning two apiece of the last five and one game drawn.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions & betting tips

Our PredictionOdds & BookmakerConfidenceWhy We’re Backing It
Real Madrid to win20/21 (bet365)⭐⭐⭐Real have won five of six with Mbappe in sensational form.
Both teams to score4/9 (bet365)⭐⭐Two potent attacks in a derby point to goals at both ends.
Over 2.5 goals4/9 (bet365)⭐⭐Both sides have been scoring freely this season.
Real Madrid or draw (Double Chance)3/10 (bet365)⭐⭐Cover on the favourites in a tense derby.
Atletico 1-2 Real Madrid8/1 (bet365)⭐⭐Our call: Real edge a derby with goals in it.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid score prediction

Atletico will make it a battle in front of their own fans, but Real Madrid’s greater firepower and Mbappe’s form should just about tell in a derby with goals. Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid.

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