Hugo Ekitike has arguably been Liverpool’s signing of the season.
The 23-year-old has struck up quite the understanding with £100million man Florian Wirtz on his way to 10 Premier League goals. He’s been impactful in the Champions League too, netting twice and assisting once across his 550 minutes.
However, over recent weeks, his performances have been put under the microscope and scrutinised. The former Eintracht Frankfurt attacker has missed at least one big chance in each of his last four Premier League starts. He’s missed five big chances since he last found the back of the net for the Reds and this inconsistent run in front of goal has coincided with Liverpool averaging just one goal per game against three matches.
Arne Slot’s side have claimed six points from nine during this period, managing narrow 1-0 wins over Sunderland and Nottingham Forest after a 2-1 defeat to Manchester City.
In this article we’ll cover:
Bad finishing or bad luck?
At a glance, these misses haven’t been too costly in the grand scheme of things. The Premier League champions found ways to win these matches. Against Sunderland, a corner-kick was nodded on by Virgil van Dijk and deflected into the roof of the net. Against Nottingham Forest, Van Dijk’s header was clawed away by Stefan Ortega only for Alexis Mac Allister to smash home the rebound.
But narratives are beginning to form.
His teammates aren’t always going to be able to spare his blushes. Fans are starting to wonder whether the one-time PSG striker might not be the ruthless finisher the Reds need. And perhaps that is why Liverpool spent £125million on Alexander Isak this summer.
But is Ekitike a bad finisher or has he just been unlucky this season? After all, the odd poor finish does not make you a poor finisher.
The Haaland paradox
Erling Haaland, for example, tops the charts this season for big chances missed (22) as well as goals scored (also 22). Igor Thiago has been a revelation in the English top-flight this term with 17 goals, but he’s also missed 15 big chances.
Scoring goals and missing big chances go hand in hand. The skill, for a world class striker in the modern game, is to be in a position to get these opportunities. More often than not, if you’re missing chances, you will, eventually, be in amongst the goals.
The issue for Ekitike is that, over recent weeks anyway, he’s blanked in the games he’s missed the big chances in.
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He had one big chance in the defeat to Manchester City, somehow guiding a header wide after a clever pass from Mohamed Salah. He also spurned a header against Sunderland, and missed a right-footed effort against the Black Cats moments earlier in a game he failed to convert either of his two big chances. Then against Forest, his header was easily dealt with by Ortega after good work on the right from Rio Ngumoha. Yes, he worked the goalkeeper, but it was far from difficult for the former Man City shot-stopper.
It was a big chance missed. But the numbers show how he actually added value to the opportunity. With a bit of luck on his side, it beats the Forest goalkeeper. In the game at the City Ground, he had an Expected Goals haul of 0.51 but a Post-Shot xG total of 0.66. This hasn’t been the story of his season though. For large parts, he’s been wasteful. But this is the norm with young, inexperienced forwards. It’s also the norm when you take a high volume attacker and minimise their involvement. There will be consequences to this. You aren’t just scaling down their threat, you’re also removing their opportunities to right their wrongs. Missed chances matter more when you aren’t having as many shots.
Trusting the numbers
This is the case with Ekitike.
While turning out and impressing for Frankfurt last term, he was averaging over four shots on a per 90 basis. He had an xG of 0.72 and was missing, on average, 0.59 big chances per 90. This season, he’s missing 0.55 big chances per 90 but having just 3.3 shots for an xG of 0.56.
Missed opportunities remain at a similar level, but everything else has been scaled back.
Ekitike isn’t bad, good, world class or poor. He’s a young striker who is still developing while adapting to a new league and a new team. There will be highs and lows. There will be feasts and famines. It’s part and parcel of signing a forward under the age of 26. There are inconsistencies to their game and you have to just accept this.
Ekitike will continue to miss chances. But the more chances he has, the more goals he’ll score. The biggest takeaway from this is that Liverpool have a 23-year-old striker who knows how to carve out chances in the Premier League as well as in Europe. He’s a goal threat and with experience, while playing in a more settled team, he’ll become a reliable, sustainable goalscorer.
