After a perfect start, the wheels have started to come off Manchester City‘s season.
Enzo Maresca looked to be settling nicely into the Etihad Stadium dugout, leading his new side to victory in each of their first seven Premier League games of the season.
There were signs of defensive frailty, however, with City conceding three against Sunderland and two against Ipswich, while only keeping three clean sheets across that run.
Those worries have now come home to roost, with the Cityzens falling to an 11th-minute Yasin Ayari strike at home to Brighton on Saturday, following on from a 2-1 defeat away at Aston Villa a week earlier.
Here, we’ve dug into the stats to see what has changed about Manchester City across their last two games, compared to the relentless way they kicked off the campaign.
Individualistic attack
In terms of carving out opportunities, Man City have actually gotten better in many ways across their last two matches.
Maresca’s side have created chances at a rate of 16.0 per match, compared to 11.29 in the games prior. This has seen their rate of shots increase from 14.57 to 18.0.
The quality of opportunities has decreased marginally, with City creating 3.5 big chances per match compared to 3.57, but the difference is negligible.
Despite all of this, Man City have scored just once across their last two league games at a rate of 0.5 per match, compared to a whopping 2.71 goals per match in their opening seven fixtures.
Erling Haaland scored against Villa, but across that match and the Brighton one combined, he’s taken seven shots with just one goal to show for them, while he missed a big chance in the latter fixture.
The answer to Man City’s decreased potency, however, could lie in how they’re building attacks.
The Cityzens have continued to dominate possession, controlling 64% against Villa and 62% against Brighton. However, their passes completed per match have dropped to 503 from 568.43. Simultaneously, their take-ons attempted per match have increased drastically, sitting at 35.0 per match in the last two games, compared to 19.43 in the seven games beforehand.
Jeremy Doku, Rayan Cherki and Iliman Ndiaye have made up the three behind Haaland in the last two games, having not played together from the start previously this term. That’s three mavericks all occupying similar spaces, trying to beat defenders with individual skill rather than through technical build-up play.
Against Villa alone, Doku completed a match-high nine dribbles, while Cherki and Ndiaye added another four combined, and none of them completed more than 27 passes in that match.
Of course, all of this must be caveated with credit to the opposition goalkeepers. Bart Verbruggen and Zion Suzuki pulled off 13 saves combined in those two defeats for Man City, hugely frustrating their usually ruthless forward line and proving the deciding factors for their teams.
Error-prone defence
That leads us nicely to Man City’s own goalkeeper and defenders.
Maresca’s men haven’t exactly been airtight across the opening nine matches, conceding 10 goals so far. That’s twice as many as Arsenal, and more than Brighton (7), Leeds (8), Everton (9), Liverpool (9) and Brentford (9).
But things have gotten worse in the last two games. Man City have conceded 50% more shots in the last two games than the seven before, and the same goes for goals conceded from shots inside the box.
Marc Guehi won’t want to see Nicolas Jackson‘s first goal for Aston Villa again, cheaply surrendering possession. That said, Gianluigi Donnarumma was also beaten at his near post, while the Italian then let a fairly tame Jackson effort squirm underneath him for Villa’s winner.
Donnarumma’s save rate across the opening seven games was 72.41%, and he hadn’t made a single error leading to a goal. Across the last two matches, his save success has dropped to 67.65%, along with that aforementioned error at Villa Park.
It didn’t get any better for Brighton’s early winner at the Etihad Stadium at the weekend, though. The City defence were akin to statues as Diego Gomez’s cross flew into the box, before Matheus Nunes’ error allowed Maxim De Cuyper to set up Yasin Ayari for an easy finish.
It’s hardly been the stuff of champions from City, who also appear to have become a little more passive, with their possessions won in the attacking third per match halving.
Are the intangibles starting to have an effect?
There are some mitigating circumstances for Man City.
Antoine Semenyo hasn’t played since the 3-2 win against Ipswich in mid-October due to a leg injury and had looked to be picking up form — grabbing two goals and an assist against Sunderland and further assists against Crystal Palace and Coventry.
What’s more, there may be something of a delayed reaction among the players to all the drama happening off the pitch at the Etihad Stadium. There’s a very real possibility that any points they pick up at this stage will count for nothing, with huge deductions or relegations realistic punishments for their financial misdeeds.
Whatever the reason, Man City have lost their way somewhat in the last couple of games, and the stats only lay that fact bare.
Maresca can only focus on what happens on the pitch, and the Italian will be looking for a big reaction in their final two matches before the November international break: at RB Leipzig in the Champions League, then at Nottingham Forest.