Miami allow a 116.8 opponent passer rating and have recorded six sacks in six games. Both are the worst figures in the NFL. Our Patriots vs Dolphins prediction sends Drake Maye at them.
The New England Patriots are 4-3 and have thrown for 1,771 yards. The Miami Dolphins are 1-5.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
New England PatriotsWin prob77%
Miami DolphinsWin prob23%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
Patriots vs Dolphins: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Patriots vs Dolphins: 2026 form so far
A 4-3 team against a 1-5 team whose defence does not get off the field. Read the table across rather than down: each figure sits beside what will try to stop it.
Patriots attack against the Dolphins defence
| Per game | Patriots offence | Dolphins allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 253.0 | 227.5 |
| Rushing yards | 122.0 | 110.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 96.2 | 116.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 39.5% | 52.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 55.0% | 65.4% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.9 | 1.0 |
Dolphins attack against the Patriots defence
| Per game | Dolphins offence | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 162.0 | 220.4 |
| Rushing yards | 131.5 | 95.3 |
| Yards per carry | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 77.1 | 94.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Third-down conversion | 41.3% | 36.6% |
| Red-zone conversion | 56.2% | 54.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.7 | 2.4 |
Miami have six sacks in six games. No team in the NFL has fewer, and the next-lowest figure is eight.
Patriots vs Dolphins quarterback matchup
Drake Maye has 13 touchdown passes to eight interceptions at 96.4 and threw for 321 yards last week. Malik Willis has four to four at 77.1.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Drake Maye | 24/31, 321 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 117.8 rtg | 141/214, 1784 yds, 13 TD, 8 INT, 96.4 rtg (7 games) |
| Dolphins | Malik Willis | 14/21, 208 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 130.7 rtg | 87/151, 1057 yds, 4 TD, 4 INT, 77.1 rtg (6 games) |
Patriots vs Dolphins injury report and team news
Miami allow a 116.8 opponent passer rating, the worst figure in the NFL.
Miami have recorded six sacks in six games, fewer than any team in the league.
Miami let opponents convert 52.1% on third down, second only to Dallas.
New England PatriotsMiami DolphinsA defence that cannot get off the field
A 116.8 opponent rating, six sacks in six games and 52.1% allowed on third down.
New England are well placed to use it: Maye has 1,784 passing yards and threw for 321 last week.
Miami’s one bright spot is a run game at 4.61 a carry.
Players to watch
- Drake Maye (NE, QB): 1,784 passing yards and 13 touchdowns in seven games.
- Hunter Henry (NE, TE): A steady outlet in an offence that has scored 160 points.
- Malik Willis (MIA, QB): Four touchdown passes at a 77.1 rating.
- Ollie Gordon II (MIA, RB): Fronts the one Miami phase that works, at 4.61 a carry.
How to watch Patriots vs Dolphins
Kickoff is 9.25pm GMT on Sunday 1 November at Hard Rock Stadium, which is 4:25 PM ET. This is not one of Channel 5 or 5ACTION’s free-to-air picks this week. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the two Sunday afternoon windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Patriots vs Dolphins |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, November 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9.25pm GMT Sun 1 Nov / 4:25 PM ET |
| Venue | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 8, 2026 NFL season |
Patriots vs Dolphins prediction and score projection
Our Patriots vs Dolphins prediction is New England by 26-17. Miami cannot pressure a quarterback and cannot get off the field.
The live spread and our projected margin both update through the week.
Every Week 8 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Panthers @ Packers | Packers 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Cardinals @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Falcons @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Ravens @ Bills | Bills 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Browns @ Steelers | Steelers 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Colts @ Jaguars | Jaguars 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Raiders @ Jets | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Vikings @ Lions | Vikings 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Titans @ Bengals | Bengals 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 10:05 PM | Chargers @ Rams | Rams 26-16 | Read |
| Sun 10:25 PM | Chiefs @ Broncos | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 10:25 PM | Patriots @ Dolphins | Patriots 26-17 | You are here |
| Mon 2:20 AM | Eagles @ Commanders | Eagles 20-17 | Read |
| Tue 2:15 AM | Bears @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Patriots vs Dolphins FAQ
9.25pm GMT on Sunday 1 November at Hard Rock Stadium, which is 4:25 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the two Sunday afternoon windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
Six in six games, fewer than any team in the NFL.
Miami, at 116.8.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change