Tampa Bay have run for 1,025 yards and Atlanta for 979, and Tampa Bay rate 73.6 through the air — the lowest figure in the NFL. Our Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction is a ground war by necessity.
The Atlanta Falcons are 3-4 and Michael Penix Jr. has nine touchdown passes to one interception. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-5.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta FalconsWin prob46%
Tampa Bay BuccaneersWin prob54%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
Falcons vs Buccaneers: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Falcons vs Buccaneers: 2026 form so far
Two of the league’s three busiest ground games, in one stadium. Every attacking figure in the table is shown against the defence it meets on Sunday.
Falcons attack against the Buccaneers defence
| Per game | Falcons offence | Buccaneers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 197.4 | 217.4 |
| Rushing yards | 139.9 | 77.3 |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Passer rating | 87.9 | 84.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Third-down conversion | 38.1% | 36.4% |
| Red-zone conversion | 66.7% | 52.6% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.1 | 2.3 |
Buccaneers attack against the Falcons defence
| Per game | Buccaneers offence | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 150.4 | 255.6 |
| Rushing yards | 146.4 | 88.9 |
| Yards per carry | 4.9 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 73.6 | 92.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 39.4% | 42.4% |
| Red-zone conversion | 52.2% | 66.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.1 | 2.4 |
Tampa Bay have conceded 22 sacks, joint second-most in the NFL, which is much of why they throw it so badly.
Falcons vs Buccaneers quarterback matchup
Michael Penix Jr. has nine touchdown passes to one interception at 109.1. Tampa Bay rate 73.6 as a team, the lowest in the league.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 25/34, 213 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 118.9 rtg | 96/144, 1157 yds, 9 TD, 1 INT, 109.1 rtg (5 games) |
| Buccaneers | Baker Mayfield | 7/11, 64 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 109.7 rtg | 68/107, 679 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, 83.0 rtg (4 games) |
Falcons vs Buccaneers injury report and team news
Tampa Bay have run for 1,025 yards, second only to Chicago.
Atlanta have run for 979 yards at 4.75 a carry.
Tampa Bay rate 73.6 through the air, the lowest team passer rating in the NFL.
Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay BuccaneersTwo run games and one functioning quarterback
One thousand and twenty-five rushing yards for Tampa Bay, 979 for Atlanta. Only Chicago have more than either.
The difference is what happens when they throw. Penix has nine touchdown passes to one interception; Tampa Bay rate 73.6.
Tampa Bay’s defence keeps them in games, but 22 sacks conceded is not a profile that wins many.
Players to watch
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL, QB): 1,157 passing yards, nine touchdowns and one interception.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): Fronts a ground game with 979 yards at 4.75 a carry.
- Bucky Irving (TB, RB): Leads the league’s second-busiest ground game.
- Baker Mayfield (TB, QB): Three touchdown passes at an 83.0 rating from four starts.
How to watch Falcons vs Buccaneers
Kickoff is 6pm GMT on Sunday 1 November at Raymond James Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET. This is not one of Channel 5 or 5ACTION’s free-to-air picks this week. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the two Sunday afternoon windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Falcons vs Buccaneers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, November 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6.00pm GMT Sun 1 Nov / 1:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 8, 2026 NFL season |
Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction and score projection
Our Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction is Tampa Bay by 24-21. Atlanta have the better quarterback, Tampa Bay the better defence and the home field.
The live spread and our projected margin both update through the week.
Every Week 8 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 1:15 AM | Panthers @ Packers | Packers 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Cardinals @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Falcons @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers 24-21 | You are here |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Ravens @ Bills | Bills 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Browns @ Steelers | Steelers 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Colts @ Jaguars | Jaguars 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Raiders @ Jets | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Vikings @ Lions | Vikings 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Titans @ Bengals | Bengals 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 10:05 PM | Chargers @ Rams | Rams 26-16 | Read |
| Sun 10:25 PM | Chiefs @ Broncos | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 10:25 PM | Patriots @ Dolphins | Patriots 26-17 | Read |
| Mon 2:20 AM | Eagles @ Commanders | Eagles 20-17 | Read |
| Tue 2:15 AM | Bears @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Falcons vs Buccaneers FAQ
6pm GMT on Sunday 1 November at Raymond James Stadium, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the two Sunday afternoon windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
Tampa Bay, with 1,025 rushing yards.
They rate 73.6 through the air, the lowest in the NFL, despite a positive point differential.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change