Fulham are rock bottom of the Premier League after six games, with two draws and four defeats.
Alvaro Arbeloa’s side are one of three teams yet to win a game, with Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth joining them. But Fulham are looking vulnerable.
After their loss against Ipswich Town, the Cottagers face the other two promoted sides, Hull City and Coventry City. If Arbeloa is unable to secure a victory against either of those sides, it could spell the end of his Fulham tenure.
In this article, we’ll cover
Arbeloa’s rough start
Arbeloa finds himself in a precarious position after just six games played. But he may feel hard done by, as Fulham have been in every game so far this season.
The Cottagers have generated 8.61 Expected Goals in the league this season, while only conceding 9.26 xG themselves. Of all the teams in the league, their -0.65 xG difference is closest to neutral. Their games haven’t had huge swings between xG and xGA.
Defensively, Fulham rank 15th for xG against with their 9.26 xG conceded. But they have actually conceded 10 goals, including three against Chelsea on the opening day of the season and another three in defeat to Crystal Palace.
Fulham have experienced a slight improvement off the ball in their last three league games. The Cottagers have managed a clean sheet against Liverpool, just one goal conceded against Manchester United and then two goals conceded in their most recent game against Ipswich. But those two goals only coming from an overall xG in the game of 1.11 xG for the Tractor Boys.
However, the main positive this season is their xG generated and the fact they are actually creating chances in games. Fulham’s 8.61 xG places them 10th in the Premier League, just 0.04 xG behind Liverpool.
Chance creation
Fulham still showcase the ability to build out from the back, having the technical capacity to do so, which was one of their biggest strengths under Marco Silva.
So far this season, Fulham have averaged 53.98% possession, ranking seventh in this metric in the Premier League and showing they can control games through their ability to build through the thirds and retain possession.
Arbeloa’s buildup consists of his two central midfielders managing the build alongside the two central defenders, with both full-backs advancing to provide support in wide areas.
One of the main ways Fulham have consistently created chances this season is by looking to play through a more aggressive press. It allows them to then attack space behind the opposition press with runs into depth and go direct into the frontline.
Fulham have created 67 chances this season, the same amount as Arsenal, making them joint-fifth in this metric in the Premier League. They’re only behind Brighton and Hove Albion, Everton, Nottingham Forest and Man Utd.
Once they find themselves in more settled phases of possession in the opposition half, Fulham are willing to take risks, often looking to carry the ball and create advantages by beating their man in a 1v1 action, moving the ball from side to side before looking for the penetrative action.
While they are creating chances and should be performing much better based on their xG generated this season, Fulham have a finishing problem on their hands. Their 67 chances created and 8.61 xG generated has only resulted in six goals.
Gonzalo Garcia running cold?
The biggest recipient of Fulham’s chances created this season has been summer signing, Gonzalo Garcia, who joined The Cottagers from Real Madrid for a fee of around £34million.
Garcia has missed five big chances this season, with only Thierno Barry of Everton missing more. The Fulham striker has only managed one goal from 2.52 xG, ranking joint-seventh in the Premier League for xG generated this season.
This is not luck. Garcia earns his service through his positioning and activity to constantly change his run, make good movements inside the box and create separation from his defender in order to create those opportunities for service from others.
Sometimes, Garcia can find himself becoming tunnel visioned around the edge of the box, heavily focused on getting a shot away, so much so he misses other options around him to perhaps create higher probability chances for his teammates.
He also needs to work on his ability to get shots away quickly and uncomfortably, as currently, his shot release can take a little too long, with his preparation touch being a bit too far ahead of him, as Garcia looks to give himself multiple steps to generate his shot.
In terms of their xG underperformance and ability to convert chances, you would expect things to level out for Fulham. Garcia has good striker fundamentals, is getting himself in good positions consistently enough and is earning his service, while others such as Josh King, Oscar Bobb, Alex Iwobi, Kevin and even Shea Charles should start to add goals too.
The big question will be whether they can manage games and turn performances into points. Especially after dropping all three points against Ipswich due to conceding two goals in the final five minutes of the game.