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Squawka / News / Atletico vs Real Madrid predictions and betting tips: Mbappe to fire derby win

Atletico vs Real Madrid predictions and betting tips: Mbappe to fire derby win

Sun 20 September, 15:15 Estadio Wanda Metropolitano
  1. Full Time
  2. 89'
  3. 89'
  4. 89'
  5. 82'
  6. 78'
  7. 71'
  8. 67'
  9. 62'
  10. 59'
  11. 54'
  12. 54'
  13. 53'
  14. 52'
    Dean Huijsen Card upgraded by VAR
  15. 49'
  16. Koke on for Marc Pubill
    46'
  17. Half Time
  18. C. Romero Card upgraded
    38'
  19. 38'
  20. 35'
  21. Kick Off
Momentum
Top Stats
60.9% Possession 39.1%
2 Goals 1
18 Shots 8
9 Shots On Target 3
3 Corners Won 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1
2.25 xG 0.40
Shooting
2 Goals 1
18 Total Shots 8
9 Shots On Target 3
Defending
1 Goals Conceded 2
0 Clean sheets 0
Passing
618 Total Passes 393
556 Accurate Passes 337
Possession
60.9% Possession 39.1%
3 Corners 1
Discipline
2 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1
19 Fouls 6

League Standings table is not available yet.

Data provided by

The Madrid derby takes centre stage on Sunday, with Real Madrid sitting second and Atletico just behind them in a La Liga top-four scrap. Atletico have won their last two in style, but Real arrive as favourites with Kylian Mbappe in sensational scoring form, already seven goals to his name.

Anthony Eadson’s Atletico vs Real Madrid predictions, best bets and score prediction are below.

Premium Tips

Anthony Eadson just favours Real Madrid in the derby.

Premium TipOddsWhy we’re backing it
Real Madrid to win20/21 (Unibet)Real Madrid have made a strong start, winning five of their six games and boasting the division’s deadliest weapon in Kylian Mbappe, who already has seven goals. Atletico have found form with back-to-back wins, but Real have the greater firepower and the man in the sensational scoring streak. Derbies are always tight and tense, but at just under evens the champions-elect look the value to edge a fiercely contested Metropolitano occasion and move to within touching distance of Barcelona at the top.
Alex Baena to score anytime10/3 (bet365)Atletico will carry a threat of their own in front of their own fans, and Alex Baena has been their standout attacker with four goals already this season. He arrives from midfield, strikes well from distance and takes a share of the set pieces, exactly the profile to punish a Real Madrid defence that has looked vulnerable at times. In a derby that should have goals at both ends, 10/3 for Baena to find the net against his city rivals looks a genuine value pick.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware — gambleaware.org · Odds correct at time of publishing.

How Atletico Madrid go into the game

Atletico have hit form with back-to-back wins, thrashing Real Sociedad 3-0 and Osasuna 4-0. Alex Baena has been superb with four goals from midfield.

Dangerous and in form, Atletico will fancy their chances of upsetting their rivals in front of a raucous Metropolitano.

How Real Madrid go into the game

Real Madrid have won five of six, most recently edging Elche 3-2, with Kylian Mbappe in stunning form on seven goals already. Only a defeat at Betis has blotted their record.

Ruthless through Mbappe and full of attacking quality, Real arrive as favourites but know a derby is never straightforward.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: 2025-26 by the numbers

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid head-to-head

DateHomeScoreAway
22/03/26Real Madrid3-2Atletico
27/09/25Atletico5-2Real Madrid
12/03/25Atletico1-0Real Madrid
04/03/25Real Madrid2-1Atletico
08/02/25Real Madrid1-1Atletico

A tight derby of late, with Atletico and Real Madrid winning two apiece of the last five and one game drawn.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions & betting tips

Our PredictionOdds & BookmakerConfidenceWhy We’re Backing It
Real Madrid to win20/21 (bet365)⭐⭐⭐Real have won five of six with Mbappe in sensational form.
Both teams to score4/9 (bet365)⭐⭐Two potent attacks in a derby point to goals at both ends.
Over 2.5 goals4/9 (bet365)⭐⭐Both sides have been scoring freely this season.
Real Madrid or draw (Double Chance)3/10 (bet365)⭐⭐Cover on the favourites in a tense derby.
Atletico 1-2 Real Madrid8/1 (bet365)⭐⭐Our call: Real edge a derby with goals in it.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid score prediction

Atletico will make it a battle in front of their own fans, but Real Madrid’s greater firepower and Mbappe’s form should just about tell in a derby with goals. Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid.

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