Liverpool had recently looked as though a positive end to the campaign could have been on the agenda. But the Reds went from winning six out of seven games across all competitions, to losing two of their last three.
Arne Slot’s side are now sixth in the Premier League table and outside the Champions League places on goal difference. The Reds have a difficult run of fixtures to end the season too with games against Everton, Manchester United, Chelsea and Aston Villa all on the horizon.
Liverpool also head into the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie against Galatasaray trailing after a 1-0 defeat in Istanbul.
In this article, we’ll cover:
Liverpool’s lack of reaction
In the space of a week, the positivity around the club has dissipated. Galatasaray have to travel to Anfield next week for the second leg but it is hardly a fortress for the Reds these days. They’ve won just eight of 14 in the Premier League this season, losing three, while PSV ran riot on Merseyside earlier in the campaign. Reaching the quarter-finals is not a formality in the slightest.
The worrying thing from a Liverpool perspective against Galatasaray was the reaction to conceding. There was no reaction. The hosts took the lead after seven minutes and, while they had some efforts, Liverpool didn’t really pin Okan Buruk’s side in. There was no bombardment of Galatasaray’s goal.
It was the second time this season that Galatasaray had beaten Liverpool at home. While it was a fairly equal game, the Turkish side did outrun their guests. When it mattered most, the Reds struggled to ramp things up.
The referee didn’t help their cause, often giving in to the crowd to award soft fouls. But a little shy of one month after Slot declared his side are the fittest they’ve been all season, the reigning Premier League champions look sluggish, tired and unfocused.
Arne Slot’s optimism
Liverpool when into their clash with Nottingham Forest in mid-February on a decent run of form. The Reds had won four out of five matches and Slot focused on their upturn in form in his pre-match press conference.
“We’re in a much better place now than we were months ago and there are two very simple reasons for that,” he told reporters.
“[There are more reasons] but the most simple two are how fit we are now compared with three or four months ago, and the second one is that we are much better in set-pieces at the moment.”
To his credit, Liverpool did show superior fitness at the City Ground to snatch a 97th minute winner. They had momentum on their side and followed that up with a 5-2 win over West Ham United in the Premier League, though it was a game of set-pieces and ricochets rather than one of dominance.
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They then lost to a last-minute strike against bottom-of-the-table Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Premier League before getting revenge in the FA Cup. The games have come thick and fast over the past four weeks but you build fitness for this part of the season. Slot viewed it as a positive less than a month ago and yet now his side appear to be on their last legs.
Even Dominik Szoboszlai is beginning to show signs of tiredness.
Liverpool’s worrying underlying numbers
This begs the question; Are Liverpool actually in a better place, as Slot had claimed?
The numbers don’t seem to suggest so.
Since their defeat to Manchester City on 9th February, Liverpool have played five matches in the Premier League and Champions League. Obviously it is a small sample size but when comparing the averages from these games to the ones posted between August and early February, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.
Liverpool have scored fewer goals on a per 90 minutes basis (1.6 down from 1.82). The worrying metric from an attacking point of view is goals scored from open play. This has taken a significant hit, dropping from 1.24 per 90 to 0.4.
Shots are slightly up but Expected Goals per 90 remains the same which suggests the Reds are taking lower value efforts. Set pieces now account for 37% of the xG haul too whereas earlier in the season this was down at 16%. There’s only a small drop-off in xG Conceded too and set-piece xG Conceded has actually risen.
In a nutshell, Liverpool are relying more on set pieces during this period of improvement that Slot spoke of. Set pieces aren’t a sustainable or reliable point of attack. As the season has progressed, the Reds have become worse in open play and now give up more set piece chances, directly contradicting the claims of their manager.
Combine that with Galatasaray covering more ground than Liverpool in the Champions League and that entire quote from the press conference is now looking a little silly.
Instead of finding their groove, the Reds are, statistically speaking, getting worse.