Our Falcons vs Saints prediction closes the round with a division game between two 1-2 teams. Squawka Signal’s live read updates on this page through the week.
The Atlanta Falcons have the meanest run defence in the league, allowing 143 rushing yards at 2.8 a carry. The New Orleans Saints have scored 10 touchdowns and convert 81.8% in the red zone. The Caesars Superdome hosts Monday night.
Falcons vs Saints: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Falcons vs Saints: 2026 form so far
Two 1-2 teams in a division game, one of them just transformed. The table puts each attack against what the opposite side allows.
Falcons attack against the Saints defence
| Per game | Falcons offence | Saints allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 167.7 | 211.7 |
| Rushing yards | 173.0 | 128.7 |
| Yards per carry | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Passer rating | 58.2 | 101.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 34.3% | 47.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 80.0% | 61.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Saints attack against the Falcons defence
| Per game | Saints offence | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 281.3 | 263.0 |
| Rushing yards | 101.3 | 47.7 |
| Yards per carry | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| Passer rating | 99.2 | 88.6 |
| Touchdowns | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| Third-down conversion | 53.2% | 35.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 81.8% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.3 | 1.7 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
New Orleans have conceded 10 sacks and 386 rushing yards. Atlanta have allowed 143 rushing yards all season.
Falcons vs Saints quarterback matchup
Tyler Shough has 917 passing yards in three games. Michael Penix Jr. has 256 in one.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg (1 game) |
| Saints | Tyler Shough | 29/42, 255 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 106.7 rtg | 91/132, 917 yds, 8 TD, 3 INT, 99.2 rtg (3 games) |
Falcons vs Saints injury report and team news
Bijan Robinson ran 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns at Green Bay.
James Pearce Jr. is suspended for Atlanta after recording 10 sacks last season.
New Orleans have conceded 10 sacks in three games, joint second-most in the league.
Where Falcons vs Saints is decided
Atlanta’s run defence has allowed 2.8 yards a carry, comfortably the best figure in the league, and has conceded only 143 rushing yards in total.
Their offence has swung from a 58.2 season passer rating to a 242-yard rushing afternoon at Green Bay, which makes them hard to price.
New Orleans have the steadier quarterback in Shough, but their line has conceded 10 sacks and Atlanta have five of their own.
Players to watch
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): 29 carries for 194 yards and two touchdowns at Green Bay.
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL, QB): 256 yards and a touchdown in his first appearance of the season.
- Tyler Shough (NO, QB): 29 of 42 for 255 yards and four touchdowns against Las Vegas.
- Chris Olave (NO, WR): Nine catches for 107 yards in Week 3.
How to watch Falcons vs Saints
Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Monday 5 October at the Caesars Superdome, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT. TSN carries the game nationally with a CTV simulcast, and RDS has the French-language coverage. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Falcons vs Saints |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, October 5, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 PM ET / 7:15 PM CT / 5:15 PM PT |
| Venue | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| TV | TSN & CTV2 (English) / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Falcons vs Saints prediction and score projection
Our Falcons vs Saints prediction is a New Orleans win, 26-23, rated 2/5. Atlanta’s form at Green Bay is the reason for the caution.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | You are here |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every Week 4 game the same way. Both these teams are chasing the NFC Championship odds, with the AFC Championship odds tracked alongside them through the season.
Falcons vs Saints FAQ
New Orleans, narrowly, at home on Monday night. Both teams are 1-2.
8:15 PM ET on Monday 5 October, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT.
TSN carries the game nationally with a CTV simulcast, and RDS has the French-language coverage. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada.
No. Pearce is suspended after recording 10 sacks for Atlanta last season.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change