Our Colts vs Commanders prediction covers an early start from London, and two defences that have stopped very little. Squawka Signal’s live read updates on this page through the week.
The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 424 rushing yards at 4.9 a carry. The Washington Commanders have allowed a 124.4 opponent passer rating, the highest figure in the league. Both are 1-2 and both can score.
Colts vs Commanders: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Colts vs Commanders: 2026 form so far
Two 1-2 teams whose defences are the reason. The table puts each attack against what the opposite side has allowed.
Colts attack against the Commanders defence
| Per game | Colts offence | Commanders allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 190.0 | 280.3 |
| Rushing yards | 103.3 | 82.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 80.8 | 124.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| Third-down conversion | 40.5% | 47.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Commanders attack against the Colts defence
| Per game | Commanders offence | Colts allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 182.0 | 276.0 |
| Rushing yards | 132.0 | 141.3 |
| Yards per carry | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| Passer rating | 98.5 | 110.4 |
| Touchdowns | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 38.1% | 36.4% |
| Red-zone conversion | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.0 | 2.3 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Washington convert 66.7% of their red-zone trips and Indianapolis the same. Neither defence has found an answer to anyone.
Colts vs Commanders quarterback matchup
Daniel Jones has thrown 98 times for three touchdowns. Marcus Mariota has seven from 47 attempts across two starts.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | Daniel Jones | 24/36, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 82.5 rtg | 65/98, 611 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT, 80.8 rtg (3 games) |
| Commanders | Marcus Mariota | 19/31, 183 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 110.0 rtg | 30/47, 294 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 109.7 rtg (2 games) |
Colts vs Commanders injury report and team news
Marcus Mariota has started Washington’s last two games and thrown seven touchdown passes without an interception.
Alec Pierce is on injured reserve for Indianapolis, a year after making 1,003 receiving yards for the Colts.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
Where Colts vs Commanders is decided
Washington have conceded 11 touchdowns in three games and beaten Seattle 33-31 regardless. Their answer to a porous defence has been to outscore the problem.
Indianapolis rely on volume rather than efficiency on the ground: 83 carries for 310 yards is 3.7 a rush, and Jonathan Taylor managed 68 from 23 against Houston.
A neutral venue takes Washington’s home crowd out of it. The Commanders still have the better scoring record, and that is the case for backing them.
Players to watch
- Daniel Jones (IND, QB): 235 yards and a touchdown against Houston.
- Tyler Warren (IND, TE): Nine catches from 10 targets in Week 3.
- Marcus Mariota (WAS, QB): Three touchdown passes against Seattle at a 110.0 rating.
- Terry McLaurin (WAS, WR): Six catches for 77 yards and a score in Week 3.
How to watch Colts vs Commanders
Kickoff is 9:30 AM ET on Sunday 4 October at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, which is 8:30 AM CT and 6:30 AM PT. CTV’s coverage is regional, so the fixture on your local CTV station depends where you are, with TSN alongside it and RDS in French. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Colts vs Commanders |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9:30 AM ET / 8:30 AM CT / 6:30 AM PT |
| Venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London |
| TV | CTV (regional) / TSN / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Colts vs Commanders prediction and score projection
Our Colts vs Commanders prediction is a Washington win, 27-24, rated 3/5. The Commanders have scored nine touchdowns to Indianapolis’s seven.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every Week 4 game the same way. This one crosses the conferences, so the AFC Championship odds and the NFC Championship odds are both worth a look as the season develops.
Colts vs Commanders FAQ
Washington, narrowly, on neutral ground in London. Both teams are 1-2.
9:30 AM ET on Sunday 4 October, which is 8:30 AM CT and 6:30 AM PT.
CTV carries the Sunday slate regionally with TSN alongside it, and RDS has the French-language coverage. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada.
No. Pierce is on injured reserve. He made 1,003 receiving yards for Indianapolis last season.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change