Our Patriots vs Bills prediction sends the least productive passing offence in the league to the AFC East’s only unbeaten team. Squawka Signal’s live read updates on this page through the week.
The New England Patriots sit on a 60.8 passer rating with one touchdown pass and six interceptions. The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 with 13 touchdowns. Highmark Stadium should be straightforward.
Patriots vs Bills: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Patriots vs Bills: 2026 form so far
An unbeaten team against one whose quarterback has thrown five more interceptions than touchdown passes. The table puts each attack against what the other allows.
Patriots attack against the Bills defence
| Per game | Patriots offence | Bills allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 197.7 | 254.3 |
| Rushing yards | 109.3 | 107.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Passer rating | 60.8 | 105.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.5% | 40.5% |
| Red-zone conversion | 16.7% | 61.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Bills attack against the Patriots defence
| Per game | Bills offence | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 246.7 | 170.0 |
| Rushing yards | 155.0 | 108.3 |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| Passer rating | 104.1 | 85.8 |
| Touchdowns | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 54.5% | 34.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 75.0% | 62.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.7 | 2.3 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
New England have reached the red zone six times and scored once. Buffalo convert three quarters of theirs.
Patriots vs Bills quarterback matchup
Josh Allen has five touchdown passes and six rushing scores. Drake Maye has one passing touchdown all season.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Drake Maye | 14/25, 199 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 48.6 rtg | 51/80, 585 yds, 1 TD, 6 INT, 58.6 rtg (3 games) |
| Tommy DeVito | 3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg | 3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg (1 game) | |
| Bills | Josh Allen | 16/26, 204 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 54.0 rtg | 56/86, 786 yds, 5 TD, 2 INT, 104.1 rtg (3 games) |
Patriots vs Bills injury report and team news
Josh Allen threw two interceptions against the Chargers and still won, with two rushing touchdowns and 176 team rushing yards.
Tommy DeVito took five snaps in relief of Drake Maye at Jacksonville, New England’s first quarterback split of the season.
Harold Landry III is on the physically unable to perform list for New England.
Where Patriots vs Bills is decided
Buffalo have run for 465 yards at 5.2 a carry and scored eight rushing touchdowns. New England have allowed 325 rushing yards at 4.3.
The Bills are beatable through carelessness: five turnovers against the Chargers, and a 54.0 passer rating from Allen in the same game.
New England have not shown they can punish that. Three touchdowns in three games, and a 16.7% red-zone conversion rate, leaves very little margin.
Players to watch
- Drake Maye (NE, QB): 199 yards and two interceptions at Jacksonville.
- Mack Hollins (NE, WR): Six catches for 87 yards in Week 3.
- Josh Allen (BUF, QB): Two rushing touchdowns against the Chargers.
- James Cook III (BUF, RB): 154 rushing yards at 6.4 a carry in Week 3.
How to watch Patriots vs Bills
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday 4 October at Highmark Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. CTV coverage is regional, so where this is your regional CTV game it is free over the air, with TSN alongside it and RDS in French. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Patriots vs Bills |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| TV | CTV (regional) / TSN / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Patriots vs Bills prediction and score projection
Our Patriots vs Bills prediction is a Buffalo win, 30-16, rated 4/5. The Bills have been untidy and are still unbeaten.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every Week 4 game the same way. Both these teams are chasing the AFC Championship odds, and the NFC Championship odds move on the same page as the season develops.
Patriots vs Bills FAQ
Buffalo, comfortably, at home. The Bills are 3-0 with 13 touchdowns; New England are 1-2 with three.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday 4 October, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT.
CTV coverage is regional, so local listings decide the game you get, with TSN alongside and RDS in French. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada.
He started Week 3 and took 25 of the 30 New England throws, with Tommy DeVito taking five in relief.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change