Texans vs Jaguars Prediction, Picks & Odds

Jacksonville are back in London for the second week running, at a different stadium. Our Texans vs Jaguars prediction covers a 4-1 team that has conceded seven touchdowns all season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a +53 point differential, second only to San Francisco. The Houston Texans are 1-4 despite being outscored by just two points across five games, and they have a new receiver: Marvin Harrison Jr. arrived from Arizona on Sunday.

Squawka Signal · Model vs market

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 6 · Sun Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Our Signal model makes the Jacksonville Jaguars favorites by about 5 points, a 67% win probability (neutral site).

Houston TexansSquawka33%Market43%▼ Slight lay

Jacksonville JaguarsSquawka67%Market57%▲ Value

Projected lineJacksonville Jaguars -5

Against the spreadJacksonville Jaguars -3 — model Jacksonville Jaguars -5 vs market Jacksonville Jaguars -3

ValueJacksonville Jaguars — model 67% vs market 57%

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Squawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.

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Week 6 · Editorial pick

Texans vs Jaguars: our editor’s props

Two calls from our editor, to read next to Signal’s live numbers.

AT

Our props

TotalUnder 41.5 pointsJacksonville concede 2.93 yards a carry, the best run defense in the league, and allow a 33.3% red-zone conversion. Houston have scored 110 points in five games.

★★★☆☆3/5 confidence

Player propNico Collins 65+ receiving yardsHouston have thrown for 1,309 yards. Jacksonville have conceded 1,331 passing yards, more than any team playing this week, even while allowing only seven touchdowns.

★★☆☆☆2/5 confidence

An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Texans vs Jaguars: 2026 form so far

A 4-1 team against a 1-4 team whose point differential is almost level. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense has actually conceded.

Texans attack against the Jaguars defense

Jaguars attack against the Texans defense

Figures are season to date, across 5 games.

Jacksonville have allowed 1,331 passing yards and seven touchdowns. They give up ground between the 20s and almost nothing once the field shortens, which is the same split that carried them through Week 5.

Texans vs Jaguars quarterback matchup

Jacksonville rate 106.8 through the air to Houston’s 97.6, and the Jaguars have thrown ten touchdown passes to the Texans’ six.

Texans vs Jaguars injury report and team news

Marvin Harrison Jr. joined Houston from Arizona on 11 October and is available for his first game with the Texans.

Will Anderson Jr. has seven sacks, the most of any player in the NFL, in a Houston front that has recorded 18.

This is Jacksonville’s second straight home game in London, at Wembley rather than Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Injury report · Week 6Official game-status report — updates through the week

Houston Texans

No game-status designations filed yet.

Out long-term

Jaylin SmithCBIR

Ali GayeDEIR

Dylan HortonDEIR

Solomon ByrdDEIR

Mario Edwards Jr.DTIR

Henry To’oTo’oLBIR

Jake HummelLBIR

K.C. OssaiLBIR

Braden SmithOTIR

Sam HagenOTIR

Graham MertzQBIR

British BrooksRBIR

Ja’Marcus IngramSAFIR

Jayden HigginsWRIR

Tank DellWRIR

E.J. SpeedLBPUP

Jacksonville Jaguars

No game-status designations filed yet.

Out long-term

B.J. Green IIDEIR

Zach DurfeeDEIR

Jared BartlettLBIR

Parker HughesLBIR

Garrett DiGiorgioOLIR

Patrick MekariOLIR

Sam MustipherOLIR

Caleb RansawSAFIR

The best run defense in football, in London

Jacksonville concede 2.93 yards a carry. No team in the NFL is lower, and only 319 rushing yards have gone through that front in five games. Houston average 3.38 on the ground, so this is not where the Texans will find anything.

Houston’s case is the pass rush. Eighteen sacks is second only to Detroit, Will Anderson Jr. has seven of them on his own, and Jacksonville have conceded ten.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the unknown. He arrived two days after Week 5 and joins a passing game that has already produced 1,309 yards without him.

Players to watch

• Will Anderson Jr. (HOU, DE): Seven sacks, the most of any player in the NFL.
• Nico Collins (HOU, WR): The main target in a passing game worth 1,309 yards.
• Bhayshul Tuten (JAC, RB): 349 rushing yards behind the league’s best run defense.
• Parker Washington (JAC, WR): 352 receiving yards in an offense scoring 24.6 a game.

How to watch Texans vs Jaguars

Kickoff is 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, October 18 at Wembley Stadium in London, which is 8:30 AM CT and 6:30 AM PT. NFL Network carries the game nationally.

Texans vs Jaguars prediction and score projection

Jacksonville win 27-17. The Jaguars have the better record, the better differential and a run defense Houston cannot get past.

Our projected margin for this game moves alongside the live market price.

Every Week 6 game, previewed

The rest of the round sits in NFL predictions for the round and the NFL odds page. The outright markets are priced in the Super Bowl market. Individual lines are covered in prop markets for this game.

Texans vs Jaguars FAQ

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change