Buffalo have scored 127 points, more than any team in the NFL. Los Angeles have conceded 582 passing yards, fewer than all but one. Our Bills vs Rams prediction covers the Sunday night game those two numbers deserve.
The Buffalo Bills are 3-1 and average 5.05 yards a carry on the ground. The Los Angeles Rams are 2-2 with a +2 differential. They are without Myles Garrett, who is on injured reserve after 23 sacks last season.
Bills vs Rams: our editor’s props
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Bills vs Rams: 2026 form so far
The highest-scoring team in football against one of its stingiest secondaries. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defense has given up.
Bills attack against the Rams defense
| Per game | Bills offense | Rams allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 247.2 | 145.5 |
| Rushing yards | 139.0 | 102.0 |
| Yards per carry | 5.1 | 4.0 |
| Passer rating | 100.1 | 75.4 |
| Touchdowns | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 53.3% | 33.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 68.8% | 58.3% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.2 | 1.8 |
Rams attack against the Bills defense
| Per game | Rams offense | Bills allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 290.2 | 256.2 |
| Rushing yards | 126.8 | 116.0 |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| Passer rating | 80.4 | 103.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 43.1% | 40.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 53.3% | 68.8% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.5 | 2.5 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Buffalo’s 127 points lead the league and their 53.3% third-down rate is second only to San Francisco. The Rams have conceded nine touchdowns in four games, so something gives here.
Bills vs Rams quarterback matchup
Buffalo rate 100.1 through the air to the Rams’ 80.4, though Los Angeles have thrown for 1,161 yards, the second-most in the NFL.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | Josh Allen | 16/26, 204 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 54.0 rtg | 79/119, 1039 yds, 6 TD, 3 INT, 100.1 rtg (4 games) |
| Rams | Matthew Stafford | 30/55, 390 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 74.1 rtg | 99/162, 1189 yds, 6 TD, 6 INT, 80.5 rtg (4 games) |
Bills vs Rams injury report and team news
Myles Garrett is on injured reserve for Los Angeles, taking out a pass rusher who recorded 23 sacks last season.
Greg Rousseau has six sacks for Buffalo, the most of any player in the NFL.
Davante Adams has 390 receiving yards for the Rams, fifth in the league.
Sunday night at SoFi
Buffalo score in every way available. One hundred and twenty-seven points leads the league, 556 rushing yards at 5.05 a carry is among the best ground games in football, and a 53.3% third-down rate keeps drives alive. Sixteen touchdowns in four games.
The Rams have the defense to make it awkward. A 75.4 opponent passer rating is third-best in the NFL, 582 passing yards conceded is second-fewest, and they allow just 33.3% on third down. The absence of Myles Garrett matters more against an offense this balanced.
Los Angeles have thrown for 1,161 yards themselves, second only to Carolina, which suggests a shootout. The 80.4 rating behind it suggests otherwise — plenty of volume, not much efficiency. Buffalo’s defense has conceded 13 touchdowns, so the Rams will get their chances.
Players to watch
- James Cook III (BUF, RB): 421 rushing yards, third in the NFL, at 5.05 a carry as a team.
- Dalton Kincaid (BUF, TE): 270 receiving yards, joint 13th in the league.
- Davante Adams (LA, WR): 390 receiving yards, fifth in the NFL.
- Kyren Williams (LA, RB): 294 rushing yards against a defense conceding 4.04 a carry.
How to watch Bills vs Rams
Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 12 at SoFi Stadium, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT. ABC and ESPN have the Monday night broadcast.
| Detail | Bills vs Rams |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, October 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 PM ET / 7:15 PM CT / 5:15 PM PT |
| Venue | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| TV | ABC/ESPN |
| Live stream | NFL+ / ESPN |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Bills vs Rams prediction and score projection
Buffalo win 27-23. The Rams have the better secondary and will keep this close, but 127 points in four games is not a sample that corrects itself on a Sunday night.
Signal’s live probability and the current market number update through to kickoff.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | You are here |
NFL predictions for the round and the NFL odds page carry the rest of the card. The outright markets are priced in who wins the AFC. We price the player markets in player prop betting.
Bills vs Rams FAQ
Buffalo. The Bills are 3-1 and lead the NFL with 127 points; Los Angeles are 2-2 at +2.
8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 12, at SoFi Stadium.
No. Garrett is on injured reserve for the Rams.
Buffalo, with 127 in four games, ahead of San Francisco and Dallas on 122.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change