Atlanta have allowed 193 rushing yards all season at 2.72 a carry. Both are the best figures in the NFL, and our Ravens vs Falcons prediction sends Derrick Henry straight at them.
The Baltimore Ravens have run for 614 yards at 4.83 a carry and rate 118.4 through the air, second only to San Francisco. The Atlanta Falcons sit at 72.2 passing, which makes this the widest quarterback gap on the card at 46.2 points.
Ravens vs Falcons: our editor’s props
Two calls from our editor, to read next to Signal’s live numbers.
AT 
Our props
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Ravens vs Falcons: 2026 form so far
A run defense that has stopped everything meets a team built to run. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense has conceded.
Ravens attack against the Falcons defense
| Per game | Ravens offense | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 241.5 | 264.8 |
| Rushing yards | 153.5 | 48.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| Passer rating | 118.4 | 87.9 |
| Touchdowns | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.4% | 36.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 73.3% | 56.2% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Falcons attack against the Ravens defense
| Per game | Falcons offense | Ravens allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 179.5 | 215.2 |
| Rushing yards | 181.0 | 100.0 |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 72.2 | 89.6 |
| Touchdowns | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 37.2% | 37.5% |
| Red-zone conversion | 80.0% | 64.3% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Atlanta’s 193 rushing yards conceded is less than a third of what Denver have given up. The trade-off is 1,059 passing yards allowed, and Baltimore are well placed to take it.
Ravens vs Falcons quarterback matchup
Baltimore rate 118.4 through the air against Atlanta’s 72.2. A 46.2-point gap is the widest between any two teams playing this week.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | Lamar Jackson | 15/20, 186 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 136.7 rtg | 68/96, 967 yds, 6 TD, 1 INT, 119.6 rtg (4 games) |
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg | 33/45, 479 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 113.1 rtg (2 games) |
Ravens vs Falcons injury report and team news
Baltimore have taken 39 penalties for 329 yards, among the highest counts in the league.
Bijan Robinson has 494 rushing yards, second in the NFL, and Atlanta average 5.21 a carry as a team.
Atlanta’s quarterback room holds Michael Penix Jr., Tua Tagovailoa and Cooper Rush, with the starter confirmed on Friday.
Derrick Henry against the best run defense in football
Atlanta’s front has been remarkable. One hundred and ninety-three rushing yards conceded in four games, at 2.72 a carry, with no other team in the league inside 3.2. Teams have simply stopped trying to run at them.
Baltimore will try anyway, because 614 rushing yards at 4.83 a carry is what they do. The more interesting number is 118.4: Lamar Jackson and a passing game second only to San Francisco, against a Falcons secondary that has conceded 1,059 yards.
Atlanta’s own offense is the counterweight. Bijan Robinson has 494 rushing yards, second in the league, the team averages 5.21 a carry and converts 80% in the red zone. They can score. What they cannot do is throw, and at 72.2 that limits how they come back if Baltimore get ahead.
Players to watch
- Derrick Henry (BAL, RB): 374 rushing yards against the best run defense in the NFL.
- Zay Flowers (BAL, WR): 352 receiving yards in a passing game rating 118.4.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): 494 rushing yards, second in the NFL, at 5.21 a carry as a team.
- Drake London (ATL, WR): 370 receiving yards, Atlanta’s clear first option.
How to watch Ravens vs Falcons
Kickoff is 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which is 7:20 PM CT and 5:20 PM PT. NBC has the Sunday night broadcast, with streaming on Peacock.
| Detail | Ravens vs Falcons |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 PM ET / 7:20 PM CT / 5:20 PM PT |
| Venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| TV | NBC/Peacock |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Peacock |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Ravens vs Falcons prediction and score projection
Baltimore win 26-20. Atlanta will stop the run and still have to deal with the passing game, and a 46-point rating gap is difficult to overcome at any venue.
Signal carries the live line for this game, and it moves as team news arrives.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | You are here |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
NFL predictions for the round and our NFL hub carry the rest of the card. The outright markets are priced in Super Bowl LXI odds. Individual lines are covered in NFL player props.
Ravens vs Falcons FAQ
Baltimore. The Ravens are 3-1 with a +20 differential; Atlanta are 2-2 at +4.
8:20 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The best in the NFL. They have conceded 193 rushing yards at 2.72 a carry in four games.
To be confirmed on Friday. Michael Penix Jr., Tua Tagovailoa and Cooper Rush are all on the active roster.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change