Chicago have run for 785 yards. Green Bay have run for 232. That is the widest gap between any two teams in the NFL, and our Bears vs Packers prediction starts there.
Lambeau on a Sunday afternoon, and the Chicago Bears arrive 3-1 with a +47 point differential. The Green Bay Packers are 2-2 and have been outscored by 32. They are also without Josh Jacobs, who is on the reserve exempt list, and Jayden Reed, who is on injured reserve.
Bears vs Packers: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
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Our props
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Bears vs Packers: 2026 form so far
One of these teams runs the ball better than anyone; the other barely runs it at all. The table measures each attack against what the opposite defense has conceded.
Bears attack against the Packers defense
| Per game | Bears offense | Packers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 232.8 | 185.0 |
| Rushing yards | 196.2 | 139.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| Passer rating | 93.5 | 89.8 |
| Touchdowns | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Third-down conversion | 47.4% | 48.2% |
| Red-zone conversion | 42.1% | 85.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 2.5 |
Packers attack against the Bears defense
| Per game | Packers offense | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 249.2 | 179.8 |
| Rushing yards | 58.0 | 102.5 |
| Yards per carry | 3.2 | 4.9 |
| Passer rating | 86.5 | 84.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Third-down conversion | 26.1% | 23.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 46.7% | 55.6% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Figures are season to date, across 4 games.
Green Bay convert 85.7% of opponent red-zone trips into touchdowns, the worst rate in the NFL. Against a Chicago side built to grind the field, that is the number that turns field goals into seven points.
Bears vs Packers quarterback matchup
Jordan Love has eight touchdown passes at an 86.5 team rating. Chicago’s passing game rates 93.5, and both lines have conceded ten sacks.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | Case Keenum | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg (1 game) |
| Packers | Jordan Love | 28/53, 312 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 75.4 rtg | 87/154, 1041 yds, 8 TD, 3 INT, 86.5 rtg (4 games) |
Bears vs Packers injury report and team news
Josh Jacobs is on the reserve exempt list and Jayden Reed is on injured reserve, so Green Bay’s two most productive skill players from last season are both unavailable.
Christian Watson has 331 receiving yards, carrying a passing game that has thrown for 997 yards without much help from the run.
Chicago’s quarterback picture will be settled by Friday’s designations.
The 553-yard gap in Bears vs Packers
Chicago’s 785 rushing yards lead the league. Kyle Monangai has 324 of them and D’Andre Swift 311, which is a genuine committee rather than one back and a backup. At 4.94 a carry, it is the engine of a side that has scored 112 points.
Green Bay’s 232 rushing yards are the fewest in the NFL, and 3.18 a carry is the kind of average that forces a quarterback into obvious passing downs. Jordan Love has been sacked ten times, and the Packers convert just 26.1% on third down as a result.
Defensively the gap is as wide. The Bears allow 23.7% on third down, second only to Minnesota. Green Bay allow 48.2%. One side gets off the field and the other does not, and over sixty minutes that compounds into exactly the differential these records show.
Players to watch
- Kyle Monangai (CHI, RB): 324 rushing yards in a ground game averaging 4.94 a carry.
- D’Andre Swift (CHI, RB): 311 rushing yards, the other half of Chicago’s committee.
- Christian Watson (GB, WR): 331 receiving yards, Green Bay’s leading target by distance.
- Matthew Golden (GB, WR): 274 receiving yards in his second season.
How to watch Bears vs Packers
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11 at Lambeau Field, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. FOX has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Bears vs Packers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| TV | FOX |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Fubo |
| Week | Week 5, 2026 NFL season |
Bears vs Packers prediction and score projection
Chicago win 24-20. The differential, the run game and the third-down defense all point one way, though Lambeau and a short field keep this from being comfortable.
Our projected margin here will shift once Friday’s designations are filed.
Every Week 5 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bears @ Packers | Bears 24-20 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Jets | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Titans | Texans 19-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Steelers | Steelers 21-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Raiders @ Patriots | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Saints | Vikings 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Commanders | Giants 24-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions @ Cardinals | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens @ Falcons | Ravens 26-20 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills @ Rams | Bills 27-23 | Read |
You can find NFL predictions for the round alongside the NFL odds page. The outright markets are priced in the NFC board. Individual lines are covered in prop markets for this game.
Bears vs Packers FAQ
Chicago. The Bears are 3-1 with a +47 point differential; Green Bay are 2-2 at -32.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, at Lambeau Field.
No. Jacobs is on the reserve exempt list. Jayden Reed is also unavailable, on injured reserve.
Chicago, by a long way. The Bears lead the NFL with 785 rushing yards; Green Bay have 232, the fewest.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change