The World Cup outright odds are beginning to sharpen. Thirteen of the last-16 places are settled, Germany are on the plane home, and by tomorrow morning we will know the full picture.
France remain the team the bookmakers cannot see past. The more interesting story sits just below them: Argentina are second favourites at 9/2 and have not actually qualified yet. Cape Verde, the 750/1 rank outsiders, are the team standing in their way in Miami tonight.
Below, we have ranked every team still in the tournament by their latest outright price — from the favourites to the longest of long shots — with a verdict on each. We will update the rankings once tonight’s final round-of-32 games are done.
World Cup 2026 outright odds: every team left
| Rank | Team | Odds (bet365) | Last-16 tie |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 15/8 | Paraguay (Jul 4) |
| 2 | Argentina* | 9/2 | Plays Cabo Verde tonight |
| 3 | Spain | 6/1 | Portugal (Jul 6) |
| 4 | England | 9/1 | Mexico (Jul 5) |
| 5 | Brazil | 12/1 | Norway (Jul 5) |
| 6 | Portugal | 12/1 | Spain (Jul 6) |
| 7 | USA | 28/1 | Belgium (Jul 6) |
| 8 | Mexico | 28/1 | England (Jul 5) |
| 9 | Morocco | 33/1 | Canada (Jul 4) |
| 10 | Norway | 33/1 | Brazil (Jul 5) |
| 11 | Colombia* | 33/1 | Plays Ghana tonight |
| 12 | Belgium | 40/1 | USA (Jul 6) |
| 13 | Switzerland | 66/1 | Australia/Egypt winner |
| 14 | Canada | 250/1 | Morocco (Jul 4) |
| 15 | Australia* | 300/1 | Plays Egypt tonight |
| 16 | Egypt* | 300/1 | Plays Australia tonight |
| 17 | Paraguay | 400/1 | France (Jul 4) |
| 18 | Ghana* | 500/1 | Plays Colombia tonight |
| 19 | Cape Verde* | 750/1 | Plays Argentina tonight |
*Yet to qualify — final round-of-32 ties are played tonight and in the early hours. Odds via bet365, correct at the time of writing on July 3 and subject to change.
Every remaining team ranked
1. France — 15/8
The favourites, and it is not hard to see why. Didier Deschamps’ side swatted Sweden aside 3-0 without leaving second gear, and Paraguay — 400/1 shots who needed penalties to get past Germany — are all that stands between them and the quarter-finals. Short price, few arguments.
2. Argentina — 9/2 (play tonight)
The holders sit second in the market despite still having a game to win. That tells you how little the bookmakers fear tonight’s meeting with Cape Verde, and the 3-1 dismissal of Jordan suggested a side moving through the gears. Expect them to be officially in the last 16 by Saturday morning.
3. Spain — 6/1
Spain have been the tournament’s most complete side and the 3-0 win over Austria barely tested them. The problem is the draw: Portugal in the last 16 is the tie of the round, and the winner will fancy themselves against anyone. Genuine contenders with the hardest route.
4. England — 9/1
The DR Congo comeback answered one question and raised another. England found a way to win from a losing position, which tournament sides must — but Mexico in front of 87,000 at the Azteca is a different order of test. The price feels about right.
5. Brazil — 12/1
Brazil needed a second-half turnaround to see off Japan, and 12/1 reflects a side the market respects rather than believes in. Norway are awkward opponents, but the Selecao have not missed a World Cup quarter-final since 1990. Value if the performance catches up with the pedigree.
6. Portugal — 12/1
Nobody left in the draw has suffered more for their progress. Portugal went 113 minutes with Croatia before winning 2-1 in Toronto, and their reward is Spain. Win that and the price halves; the market is waiting to see it first.
7. USA — 28/1
The co-hosts have quietly done everything asked of them, and the 2-0 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina was their most controlled performance yet. The USA also landed the kindest tie of the round among the contenders: Belgium, the competition’s great escapologists. A home quarter-final is genuinely on.
8. Mexico — 28/1
El Tri have ridden the wave of home support all the way to a last-16 date with England, and the 2-0 win over Ecuador was as comfortable as the scoreline suggests. Mexico’s route is brutal from here, but the Azteca factor is worth something no other side has.
9. Morocco — 33/1
The 2022 semi-finalists did it again, holding their nerve to beat the Netherlands on penalties. Morocco now face Canada in the most winnable tie of the round. Of all the prices in this list, 33/1 about a side who know exactly how to navigate knockout football looks the most generous.
10. Norway — 33/1
A first World Cup knockout campaign since 1998 continues, and the 2-1 win over the Ivory Coast was thoroughly deserved. Norway have the tournament’s most feared centre-forward and the misfortune of meeting Brazil while he is in form. Dangerous, but the ceiling is probably the quarters.
11. Colombia — 33/1 (play tonight)
Colombia are priced as though qualification is a formality, and against 500/1 Ghana it probably is. A winnable path could open up beyond that — but they have to finish the job first.
12. Belgium — 40/1
Nobody has flirted with elimination more enthusiastically. Belgium needed extra time and a 3-2 thriller to shake off Senegal, and now meet a USA side with the crowd behind them. Entertaining, fragile, and priced accordingly.
13. Switzerland — 66/1
The quiet men of the tournament. Switzerland dispatched Algeria 2-0 without fuss and await the winner of Australia and Egypt — a draw that puts a quarter-final well within reach. They will not win the World Cup, but they may outlast several teams above them in this list.
14. Canada — 250/1
The co-hosts keep refusing to leave their own party, and John Herdman’s heirs ground out a 1-0 win over South Africa to reach this stage. Canada get Morocco next; win that, and no price in this market moves faster. The longest shot among the confirmed 16 — and the most live one.
15-16. Australia and Egypt — both 300/1 (play tonight)
One of them will be in the last 16 by tonight, with the winner in Dallas earning Switzerland. The bookmakers cannot separate them, and neither can we. Whoever progresses will feel this draw has opened up kindly.
17. Paraguay — 400/1
The penalty-shootout heroes who sent Germany home deserve better than to be an afterthought, but Paraguay’s reward is France. The market says the fairytale ends on Saturday. It is hard to disagree.
18. Ghana — 500/1 (play tonight)
Ghana have already outperformed expectations by surviving this deep, and tonight’s tie with Colombia is winnable in a way few gave them at the draw. Beyond that, the price speaks for itself.
19. Cape Verde — 750/1 (play tonight)
The story of the tournament, whatever happens against Argentina. The Blue Sharks are the smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup knockout round, and 750/1 says the run ends tonight. They have made a habit of ignoring numbers like that.
Who will win the 2026 World Cup?
France are worthy favourites: the deepest squad, the calmest knockout pedigree and the kindest route to the semi-finals. Spain are the best team in the tournament on the evidence so far, but Portugal, and potentially Brazil beyond them, make their half of the draw a minefield.
All in all, the value sits in the middle of the market. Morocco at 33/1 with Canada up next is the standout price, while a USA side with home advantage and Belgium in front of them is a bigger number than their draw deserves. For the latest prices on every market, see our World Cup top goalscorer odds, and if you are watching the knockouts, our World Cup live streaming guide and the latest free bet offers have every game covered.
