Wales host Portugal at the Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday 17 November, 7.45pm, as this League A Group 4 Nations League campaign reaches its final round with the visitors already assured of top spot.
Portugal have made light work of this section and have long since booked their place in the last eight, while Wales go into the finale rooted to the foot of the group and scrapping to avoid a relegation play-off. We have weighed up the form, the group picture and the bet365 markets to land on our best bets, and even with nothing left to play for at the top we expect Jorge Jesus’s side to have far too much in Cardiff.
Premium Tips
Here are our two favourite Premium Tips for Wales vs Portugal, taken at the best prices we can find across our featured bookmakers.
| Premium Tip | Odds | Why we’re backing it |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal to win to nil | 6/4 (bet365) | Portugal have topped the group and long since sealed their quarter-final place, and they boast an attack brimming with quality, from Goncalo Ramos and Rafael Leao to the creativity of Bruno Fernandes. Wales, by contrast, have been badly blunted away from home and could not find a way through when the sides met in Portugal last month. With Jesus’s men expected to control the game and keep a resilient but limited Wales at arm’s length, 6/4 for a Portugal win to nil looks the standout play. |
| Portugal to win 2-0 | 13/2 (bet365) | This matches our score prediction and our reading of the game. Portugal have the firepower to break Wales down even with top spot already secured, and the hosts have offered next to nothing in attack on their travels this campaign. A controlled 2-0 away win feels a likely outcome, and at 13/2 with bet365 it offers plenty of value for anyone happy to back the exact scoreline rather than just the result. |
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware — gambleaware.org · Odds correct at time of publishing.
How Wales go into the game
Wales go into the final round bottom of League A Group 4 and fighting to avoid the drop, with their three points coming from a memorable 2-1 home win over Norway in Cardiff earlier in the campaign, a first Nations League Group A victory for Craig Bellamy‘s side. Away from home, though, it has been a chastening story.
On the road Wales have been beaten 1-0 by Portugal, 2-0 by Denmark and 3-1 at Norway last time out, with that trip to Oslo at least bringing a rare away goal in a campaign short on cutting edge. Back on home soil, where they have already shown they can cause this group’s bigger names problems, Bellamy will demand far more from forwards such as Kieffer Moore and Lewis Koumas.
That defeat in Oslo confirmed Wales as the group’s bottom side and left them facing a relegation play-off, so pride and a strong finish are what remain to play for. Taking something off Portugal would end a tough campaign on a high, but it is a huge ask, and they will likely need to be at their most resilient and clinical to do it.
How Portugal go into the game
Portugal travel to Cardiff with top spot and the quarter-final berth that comes with it long since wrapped up, even after a much-changed side was beaten 4-1 by Denmark last time out. Jorge Jesus took charge of the national team after the World Cup and has made a strong start, with his side the standout team in the section.
This is also a new era up front. Cristiano Ronaldo announced his retirement from international football earlier this month, and Goncalo Ramos is among those expected to lead the line, with Bruno Fernandes still pulling the strings and the likes of Rafael Leao, Joao Felix and Pedro Neto providing the attacking depth Jesus has at his disposal.
With top spot already secured, Jesus may be tempted to freshen things up, but even a rotated Portugal side carries enough quality to see off a struggling Wales, and the visitors will want to sign off their group campaign with a clean, professional display.
Wales vs Portugal head-to-head
There is little between these sides on recent evidence, with the pair having met only last month in Portugal, where the hosts ran out 1-0 winners in a tight contest. Wales will take heart from how close they ran Portugal that day, but the visitors will point to that result, and their status as group winners, as reasons for confidence here.
Wales vs Portugal predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal to win | 2/5 (bet365) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Portugal have topped the group and already sealed their place in the last eight. |
| Both teams to score – No | 11/10 (Paddy Power) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Portugal have the defensive quality to shut out a Wales side that has managed just one goal on its travels all group. |
| Under 2.5 goals | 7/5 (bet365) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The reverse fixture in Portugal was a cagey affair that produced just a single goal. |
| Wales 0-2 Portugal | 13/2 (bet365) | ⭐⭐ | Portugal kept a clean sheet when the sides met last month and carry far more firepower than their blunt hosts. |
Wales vs Portugal score prediction
Portugal may have nothing left to play for at the top of the group, but we still expect their quality to tell in Cardiff. Jorge Jesus has an embarrassment of attacking riches even in a new era without Cristiano Ronaldo, and Wales have looked short of a goal threat for much of their away campaign. The hosts will fight for the result they need to stay up, but keeping Ramos, Leao and company quiet for 90 minutes is a tall order, and we think the group winners will have a little too much. Anthony Eadson is backing a 2-0 away win. Score prediction: Wales 0-2 Portugal.
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