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Squawka / News / Burnley vs Derby predictions and betting tips: strugglers meet at Turf Moor

Burnley vs Derby predictions and betting tips: strugglers meet at Turf Moor

Matches
Championship
Sat 19 September, 15:00 Turf Moor
Burnley
15:00
1 - 1
Derby County
Z. Amdouni   34'
M. Fuseini   90 + 3'
  1. Full Time
  2. 90 + 3'
    M. Fuseini
  3. O. Sonne on for Lucas Pires
    89'
  4. 87'
    C. Blackett-Taylor
  5. U. Raghouber
    86'
  6. 82'
    C. Blackett-Taylor on for C. Taylor
  7. 78'
    R. Brewster on for D. Ozoh
  8. A. Hountondji on for J. Bruun Larsen
    73'
  9. J. Vardy on for Z. Amdouni
    73'
  10. J. Laurent
    68'
  11. 67'
    D. Ozoh
  12. 66'
    M. Fuseini on for R. Hedges
  13. 66'
    O. Fraulo on for A. Mowatt
  14. U. Raghouber on for R. Hatate
    61'
  15. L. Ramazani on for M. Edwards
    61'
  16. A. Ahmedhodžić
    56'
  17. Half Time
  18. Z. Amdouni
    34'
  19. Igor Julio
    31'
  20. Kick Off
Momentum
Top Stats
51.6% Possession 48.4%
1 Goals 1
6 Shots 17
2 Shots On Target 6
4 Corners Won 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 0
Shooting
1 Goals 1
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots On Target 6
Defending
1 Goals Conceded 1
0 Clean sheets 0
Passing
438 Total Passes 393
347 Accurate Passes 316
Possession
51.6% Possession 48.4%
4 Corners 6
Discipline
4 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 0
9 Fouls 12
Goals
Shots
Tackles Won
Assists
Chances Created
Passes Completed
Take Ons Completed
Interceptions
37
Coudert
23
Pires
44
Julio
15
Ahmedhodzic
14
Roberts
05
Hatate
03
Alleyne
29
Laurent
10
Edwards
11
Amdouni
07
Bruun Larsen
09
Morris
08
Clark
11
Szmodics
26
Hedges
04
Ozoh
20
Mowatt
18
Taylor
28
Sanderson
06
Langås
23
Ward
31
Vickers
Substitutes
01Max Weiss
22Oliver Sonne
27Armando Broja
09Jamie Vardy
17Andréas Hountondji
19Largie Ramazani
18Hjalmar Ekdal
08Ugo Raghouber
02Kyle Walker
Substitutes
Lewis Travis27
Mohammed Fuseini16
Corey Blackett-Taylor33
Rhian Brewster10
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen15
Oscar Fraulo29
Raymond Offor42
Max Johnston22
Richard O'Donnell12

League Standings table is not available yet.

Data provided by

Two of the Championship‘s more familiar names find themselves in an early relegation scrap. Burnley sit bottom of the table without a win, while Derby County are only two places better off, and something has to give at Turf Moor on Saturday.

Anthony Eadson’s Burnley vs Derby predictions, best bets and score prediction are below.

Premium Tips

Anthony Eadson is all about goals between two leaky, out-of-form defences.

Premium TipOddsWhy we’re backing it
Over 2.5 goals10/11 (bet365)Forget Burnley’s favourite tag, because this game is all about two thoroughly porous defences. Burnley have the worst rearguard in the division, shipping sixteen goals in seven games, yet they have scored in every single match and hit both teams to score in all seven. Derby, meanwhile, have lost three on the bounce and leak goals just as freely. Whenever Burnley are involved this season the goals have flowed at both ends, so taking odds against on the over 2.5 is the obvious, data-driven play.
Sammie Szmodics to score anytime10/3 (bet365)In a game brimming with goals, Derby’s chief attacking threat is worth backing to find the net. Sammie Szmodics already has two goals and is the visitors’ most reliable source going forward, and he comes up against a Burnley defence that is the worst in the division, having shipped sixteen in seven. With both teams scoring in every Burnley game so far, the openings will be there for Derby, and at 10/3 Szmodics to add to his tally is a rewarding, data-backed anytime call.
Back these tips with bet365 →

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware — gambleaware.org · Odds correct at time of publishing.

How Burnley go into the game

Burnley are rooted to the bottom after a 3-1 defeat at Swansea, and have conceded more than anyone. A win at Turf Moor is overdue.

Dangerous in flashes but fragile at the back, Burnley need to turn home games into points.

How Derby County go into the game

Derby were beaten 2-1 at home by Birmingham last time out and sit just above the drop zone. Confidence is low.

Capable of a threat but inconsistent, Derby face a tough trip to Turf Moor.

Burnley vs Derby County: 2025-26 by the numbers

Burnley vs Derby County head-to-head

DateHomeScoreAway
26/08/25Burnley2-1Derby
08/04/25Derby0-0Burnley
10/12/24Burnley0-0Derby

These sides have been closely matched in recent times, with two goalless Championship draws sandwiching a 2-1 Burnley win in the League Cup. Burnley are unbeaten across the last three meetings.

Burnley vs Derby County predictions & betting tips

Our PredictionOdds & BookmakerConfidenceWhy We’re Backing It
Over 2.5 goals10/11 (bet365)⭐⭐⭐Burnley BTTS in all seven; worst defence in the league.
Sammie Szmodics to score anytime10/3 (bet365)⭐⭐Two goals for Derby’s main threat.
Both teams to score8/11 (Betway)⭐⭐⭐Burnley score every game but concede freely.
Burnley to win5/6 (William Hill)⭐⭐Favourites at home but still without a win.
Back these tips with bet365 →

Burnley vs Derby County score prediction

Both defences are leaking badly and Burnley cannot stop conceding, so a high-scoring game with goals at both ends looks likely. Score prediction: Burnley 2-2 Derby.

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