Swansea are keeping the good times rolling in the Championship, still sitting top of the league after 10 games.
We last wrote about the Swans three games into the new season. They had already shown a lot under Vitor Matos, including the second half of the previous campaign, that convinced us they were an underrated side and not talked about enough for play-off/promotion contention.
Fast forward to now and they are still 1st, ahead of the likes of Middlesbrough (2nd), West Ham (3rd) and Wolves (10th). All of which had expectations to dominate the Championship.
Things did get a little ‘rockier’ over the past few weeks. Swansea’s dominant start to the season saw them look more in control of the scoreline, falling behind just once in their first five matches. Looking at the last five, however, they conceded first three times. And yet, this might be the most positive sign of their campaign so far.
How are Swansea thriving in adversity?
Swansea’s current four-game win streak might be a little misleading. It’s their best run of form in terms of results so far, but not performances.
They were perhaps lucky to take all three points in the Burnley and Lincoln City games, having fewer shots and big chances than the opponent in both matches. Which was also the case in the loss to Southampton.
The win at Millwall could have also gone either way, given what both teams showed. The draw looked like a fair outcome, with a poor first half followed by a dominant second half. Though that has often been the case for them this year.
In fact, Swansea are the second best-performing side in second halves in the Championship this year, behind only West Ham. If games ended in the first half, the Swans would actually be 9th in the table.
In a vacuum, Swansea getting results they weren’t ‘supposed’ to is not all that encouraging. There are teams that sustain overperformance for long periods, whole seasons even, but there’s always the risk of the magic fading away.
But they are doing it while already having shown a more dominant version of themselves early on in the year. There is a confidence about them, staying true to their identity and knowing who they are that keep them in games even when they are trailing.
The Swans have already gained 9 points from losing positions in the Championship this season, the most of any side. And it’s also almost as many as they did in the entirety of last season (11).
To their credit, they are also the best at managing games and keeping the lead. They have yet to drop points from winning positions, a feat no other team shares in the division.
Vitor Matos’ play style also suits this reality. Swansea are in the top-5 for a number of different possession and passing-related metrics.
| Metric | Average per game | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 58.5% | 4th |
| Passes attempted | 519.0 | 2nd |
| 10+ pass sequences | 13.0 | 5th |
| Average pass distance | 17.9m | 4th |
| Direct speed | 1.08 m/s | 2nd |
But they are also tireless and ruthless out of possession. Matos has been deploying a sharp man-to-man press that has them 3rd in PPDA (10.5), second in high turnovers (8.6), as well as first in goal-ending high turnovers (3) and shot-ending high turnovers (18).
Swansea have also been getting a lot of help from their wingers. Substitute Ronald scored a late winner at The Den last time out just six minutes after coming on in the right wing, completing a cross from left-winger Joseph Opoku.
Adding Moussa Yeo to the mix, wingers have accounted for seven of their 16 goals so far – the most of any position group. Even ahead of the great striker trio of Zan Vipotnik (2), Adam Idah (4) and Ross Stewart (0).
Vipotnik won the Golden Boot last season and has struggled for fitness so far. While Idah has more than taken care of things during his absences, things could very much get even better for the Swans with their main man fit and in form in the future.
We would also be remiss not to mention their defence. Matos’ patient approach helps them control the ball and dominate the opposition by creating chances, but also by not allowing opponents to do the same.
In addition to the Swans averaging 59% possession, good enough for 4th in the league, they are 2nd in possession in winning positions – and one of just four sides above 50% in this regard (54%). Cardiff City top this specific ranking with 58%.
As a result, Swansea are top-3 in fewest shots faced per game (3rd, 11.0) and fewest expected goals conceded per game (3rd, 1.1 xGA). Not to mention they are one of two teams below 1.0 goals conceded per game (1st, 0.7 – alongside QPR, 2nd with 0.9).
Matos has managed to put his fingerprints all over Swansea in less than a year in charge. And the result has been the best surprise story of the Championship in the start of the current season.