Morocco are the favourites to win the Africa Cup of Nations.
That doesn’t come as a surprise. On home turf and with one of the best squads in the competition, the Atlas Lions should feel confident about landing AFCON success for just the second time in their history. There is immense quality within the squad.
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Achraf Hakimi, Bilal El Khannouss and Noussair Mazraoui, to name three, are all European experienced players for the tournament hosts. However, it’s a Real Madrid star that is proving Morocco’s driving force for AFCON glory.
Brahim Diaz opted to switch allegiance from Spain to Morocco in 2023. The Malaga-born wideman had represented La Roja from U17 to the senior level. Diaz, though, was permitted to swap from the European giants to the North African powerhouse in March 2023. Last year, the 26-year-old made his debut for Walid Regragui’s side.
Diaz’s flying start to AFCON
In the months since, the Real Madrid winger hasn’t looked back. In 18 Morocco appearances, Diaz has scored 11 goals. Spain’s loss is very much the Atlas Lions’ gain. Three of those 11 goals have come at AFCON. No player has scored more at the tournament as Morocco beat Comoros and Zambia, with a draw with Mali sandwiched in between.
Diaz, remarkably, had come in for criticism for a series of poor performances in the lead up to AFCON 2025. The forward has certainly silenced his doubters, in the process equalling a 49-year Morocco record. Having scored in three successive competition outings, Diaz matched the achievement set by Ahmed Faras, the nation’s all-time leading scorer.
It’s a stark contrast to his time in Madrid, where minutes have been hard to come by. Diaz has started just three league matches under Xabi Alonso this season, and just once since the October international break. A lack of game time hasn’t impacted his AFCON showings, however.
Highlighting winger’s importance for Morocco
Featuring off the right, teammates will look to Diaz to provide the attacking impetus. Indeed, a bulk of Morocco’s attacks have come from the right (40%), the seventh highest such proportion at AFCON. 154 touches ranks fifth for the Atlas Lions, further signifying his importance to the way Morocco attack.
While Diaz isn’t the main creative force for Morocco, he’ll often be the man to finish moves. 11 shots is more than any other player for the AFCON hosts. 1.95 Expected Goals is the third most at the competition. In addition, opponents have pinpointed Diaz as Morocco’s dangerman with the winger fouled nine times. Only Azzedine Ounahi (12) has been done so more for Regragui’s team.
Unsurprisingly, Diaz is now one of the favourites for the MVP award at AFCON 2025. Triumph for Morocco in front of their fans would certainly justify calls for the winger to land the gong, particularly if Diaz, as expected, fires his nation to glory. “My boy on fire,” Real Madrid teammate Jude Bellingham posted on Instagram recently. The England international knows ball.
AFCON showings to give Alonso food for thought?
Importantly still is that Diaz’s performances at the Africa Cup of Nations has given Alonso a timely reminder of his quality. Diaz is completing 2.2 take ons per 90 at AFCON, though admittedly that’s a drop of the 2.6 in La Liga this season. Context, though, is needed.
Diaz has been used primarily from the bench in the 2025-26 La Liga campaign. Nine of his 12 league appearances have been as a sub. For a Real Madrid side that dominates, Diaz’s introduction routinely comes late on against tiring defences. It means he has more of a chance of beating a man.
Similarly, this goes some way to explaining why 1.3 chances per 90 at AFCON is lower than in La Liga (2.9). And for a Morocco side that comes up against deep-lying defences, he’ll often look to go down the outside of markers and put the ball in the box, which isn’t often the case for Los Blancos. It’s for that reason why crosses per 90 are higher at AFCON (2.6) than in La Liga (1.5).
Morocco are very much powered by their talisman this winter. Diaz has undertaken the role of the Atlas Lions’ star performer with ease. Take his flying group stage form into the knockouts and Morocco can be expected to win their first AFCON since 1976.
